ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Most models are generally focusing in on south Florida other then the GFDL which continues to take Ike WSW for about a day longer then every other model.

Now just need to wait for the ECM but right now the models are starting to look worse for S.Florida but still early days

[Bgator]

What are people saying it looks better for the mainland, the GFS now has it hitting the Mainland, and most models take it through the upper keys, That is not "looking better" for the mainland.

[ronjon]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

Why? GFDL, GFS ,HWRF, and Nogaps have Him exactly where the NHC does?

Agreed Destruction5 - models look like they're coming into good consensus somewhere near the current NHC track.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps..Florida panhandle..last run was recurve well east of Florida

[Brent]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

I don't see much of a shift at all at 5 based on the models so far.

[Weatherfreak000]

The recurve solution is steadily losing support it seems...

[gatorcane]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

I don't see much of a shift at all at 5 based on the models so far.

Looking at the consensus the NHC is north of most of the models so they should shift it left yet again.

[caneseddy]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

I don't see much of a shift at all at 5 based on the models so far.

Me either. I think the NHC will keep the track as it is in the long-range. Like I stated earlier today, now that the plane is flying into the storm and the G-IV making an appearance soon (maybe tomorrow), we will know starting tomorrow what the synoptic data is and the models will come into agreement

As for the UKMET, well, it did pretty poorly with Gustav and with Hanna, so I'm not trusting it too much at this time

[Bocadude85]

HWRF Splits FL in half...

Do you have a link im at work and do not have it in my favorites

[Bgator]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

I don't see much of a shift at all at 5 based on the models so far.

Looking at the consensus the NHC is north of most of the models so they should shift it left yet again.

This has almost none of the new models in it. I think the NHC will keep it near the same. The HWRF is VERY similar to the NHC track.

[Brent]

HWRF Splits FL in half...

Do you have a link im at work and do not have it in my favorites

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

Why? GFDL, GFS ,HWRF, and Nogaps have Him exactly where the NHC does?

The recent GFS and GFDL are right from their last run and all make a sharp NW turn on or about the Keys. It won't take much to move those models right and be back over SFL. I say the track nudges to the right a little with the latest GFS and GFDL.

[gatorcane]

to the right?

hmmm

anybody I have a link to a graphic that shows the most recent model runs?

[fci]

Until we are lot closer in 1-2 days, all this is purely conjecture.
Fun to do, but frustrating when you are considering when to take actions.

Ike being a small storm will make it easier to wait.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:
to the right?

hmmm

anybody I have a link to a graphic that shows the most recent model runs?

The difference between the HWRF moving from Keys/SW Florida to slamming the EC of Florida is less than 100 miles. We are still 3-4 days out.

[Brent]

:uarrow:
to the right?

hmmm

anybody I have a link to a graphic that shows the most recent model runs?

The GFDL is on the link you posted, and you yourself posted about the 12z GFS. Miami, then Naples, Fort Myers, Tampa. South Florida is definitely still at HIGH risk(higher than anyone else since they'd be hit sooner).

[NEXRAD]

Until we are lot closer in 1-2 days, all this is purely conjecture.
Fun to do, but frustrating when you are considering when to take actions.

Ike being a small storm will make it easier to wait.

Entirely agreed, especially with the difficult forecasts and model errors that cropped up with some of this season's storms.

- Jay

[rockyman]

for anyone who missed it, here's the 12z UKMET:



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 62.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2008 23.4N 62.6W STRONG

00UTC 06.09.2008 22.3N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 22.6N 67.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 22.2N 70.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 22.4N 72.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 22.3N 75.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 22.4N 78.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 22.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 23.3N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2008 24.3N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 89.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Canelaw99]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

I don't see much of a shift at all at 5 based on the models so far.

Looking at the consensus the NHC is north of most of the models so they should shift it left yet again.

Gator, that NHC track is the 5am track. At 11, it's basically going through the middle Keys, so they would be more in line with those model tracks...

*either that or my image isn't updated*....