ATL: IKE Discussion

[micktooth]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

I would think that a young or a mature oak would survive somewhat better than a pine - but an elderly oak may have some structural issues that would weaken it.

From the Houston Chronicle: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/gar ... 11690.html

[dwg71]

i understand the wide wind field, but are they finding anything more than cat 1 out there, surge is the issue that will be where damage comes from. It would be best if it came in well east of galveston. 50 miles would be nice.

in current state, Houston proper would be spared devestation lets hope ike continues to struggle with inner core issues.

[Sihara]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

I would think that a young or a mature oak would survive somewhat better than a pine - but an elderly oak may have some structural issues that would weaken it.

Laurel and water oaks are the worst at falling over - and doing tremendous damage when they do. They've been blamed for 40% of the property damage in Charley. Pine trees are bad in high winds too. Live oaks - and all tall trees - can be unstable and fall in high winds. The bigger the tree, the worse the damage. No matter what species the tree is, however, there are things that make them more dangerous: a tree that hasn't been properly pruned (which would have allowed wind to pass through the canopy), a tree with roots that are impeded by driveways, house foundations etc, an old or sick tree, or any tree in water-logged, saturated soil. They lose their purchase on the ground.

Sorry to all if this is OT. I think it's a good idea to evaluate the trees near your house - you don't want to be in there if a tree may fall on it.

[thetruesms]

what the??? that mimic gif looks like the storm is headed right for louisiana

It's an artifact of the morphing procedure. It kind of bounces around when a clear center is difficult to find, since the movement, interpolation and rotation equations are generally based on the center of the storm.

[sponger]

Looking better for you Texans from a wind event problem. You still are likely to see extended period of high winds. But at least the catastrophic destruction should be avoided. I would still plan for a storm thats getting stonger as it comes in. 120 mph is my guess but no bomb out.

Coastal folks run wile you can!!!


Totally amateur opinion!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

Frances tore our huge old oak up by the roots and laid in on its side -- after she came through as a TS.
A tall palm tree in the back yard is bent from stem to stern.

[AZRainman]

Surge maps, plus animated: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/





Tide gauges

[O Town]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

I would think that a young or a mature oak would survive somewhat better than a pine - but an elderly oak may have some structural issues that would weaken it.

Our playground down the street after Charley, tons of oaks down all over the neighborhood. My back neighbor lost her whole house when a very large oak fell through her house, and she wasn't the only one in the neighborhood. And I was 140 miles inland and had cat1/2 winds.


The root ball of the one that fell on my neighbors.

[Steve]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Ike appearing a bit like a tea rose? No doubt there should be lots of nasty weather in there, but it doesn't look particularly organized (in the traditional sense) right now to me either.

Steve

[JenBayles]

Looking better for you Texans from a wind event problem. You still are likely to see extended period of high winds. But at least the catastrophic destruction should be avoided. I would still plan for a storm thats getting stonger as it comes in. 120 mph is my guess but no bomb out.

Coastal folks run wile you can!!!


Totally amateur opinion!!!

What news are you watching? Funny, all our Houston politicians are on live TV right now saying we're hosed. Where do you see "better"?

[cycloneye]

LAZ041-TXZ201-216-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.HI.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0900Z/
CALCASIEU-HARDIN-ORANGE-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND PARISH:

CALCASIEU...HARDIN...ORANGE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN CALCASIEU PARISH FOR PEOPLE IN TRAVEL
TRAILERS...MOBILE HOMES...AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THIS INCLUDES
RESIDENTS WHO ARE HOME-BOUND...REQUIRING ELECTRICITY FOR THEIR
WELL-BEING. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE PARISH ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO LEAVE AS WELL.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ORANGE COUNTY...
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HARDIN COUNTY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CALCASIEU:
STORM SURGE WILL MOVE UP THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL INTO LAKE CHARLES
LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL STORM TIDE LEVELS
OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW
AFTER IKE MOVES INLAND.

AT THESE LEVELS...COMMUNITIES ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER BASIN SUCH
AS DEATONVILLE...PORTIONS OF CARLYSS...SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
SULPHUR...AND PORTIONS OF WESTLAKE WILL EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE
FLOODING. AREAS WITHIN LAKE CHARLES NEAR THE I-10 AND I-210
BRIDGES...NEAR THE CIVIC CENTER...AND THE LAKE CHARLES BEACH WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING AS WELL. THIS FLOODING WILL BE COMPARABLE TO
THAT EXPERIENCED DURING HURRICANE RITA. ALSO FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG ANY BAYOUS IN WESTLAKE AND LAKE CHARLES. BLACK BAYOU TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING AS WELL.

ORANGE:
STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP INTO SABINE LAKE. THIS
IS FORECAST TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING UP THE SABINE RIVER TO ORANGE
AND ANY CONNECTING BAYOUS...SUCH AS COW AND ADAMS BAYOUS IN ORANGE
COUNTY. THIS WILL INUNDATE BRIDGE CITY AND PORTIONS OF ORANGE. THE
STORM TIDE LEVEL AT RAINBOW BRIDGE IS FORECAST REACH FROM 10 TO 15
FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. AT LEAST 6 FEET IS FORECAST AT THE OLD
ORANGE RIVER GAGE AND THIS IS MAJOR FLOODING.

...WINDS...

CALCASIEU:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INCREASING TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

WESTERN PORTIONS OF CALCASIEU PARISH COULD EXPERIENCE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

ORANGE AND HARDIN:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN AROUND MID MORNING FRIDAY...INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY SATURDAY MORNING.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

CALCASIEU:
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 70 TO 80
PERCENT.

ORANGE AND HARDIN:
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS ORANGE AND
HARDIN COUNTIES RANGE FROM 80 TO 90 PERCENT.


...INLAND FLOODING...

CALCASIEU:
AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
NEW RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AS IS THE CASE DURING
ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS WILL SEE
FLASH FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER CALCASIEU
RIVER FROM THE SALT WATER BARRIER TO OLD TOWN BAY AND MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE WEST FORK OF THE CALCASIEU FROM HOUSTON
RIVER TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE CALCASIEU RIVER DUE TO TIDAL BACKUP.

ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST...ALSO DUE TO
A TIDAL BACKUP.

AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MAJOR FLOODING OF
RESIDENTIAL AREAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SALT WATER BARRIER. UPSTREAM
NEAR OLD TOWN BAY...WATER WILL COMPLETELY COVER GOOS FERRY ROAD
ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER ROAD ENTRANCE. FLOOD WATER ENTERS LOWER
LEVELS OF SOME ELEVATED HOMES ON GOOS FERRY ROAD. FLOODING IS
EXPECTED IN WHITE OAK PARK. ALONG THE WEST FORK OF THE CALCASIEU
WATER LEVELS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA. CYPRESS LAKE
DRIVE BECOMES IMPASSIBLE AND WATER IS UP TO A FEW HOMES ALONG THE
ROAD. PORTIONS OF SAM HOUSTON PARK ARE UNDER WATER.

ORANGE AND HARDIN:

AT THIS TIME MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT ORANGE ON THE SABINE
RIVER DUE TO THE STORM SURGE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER NECHES RIVER AS WELL AS THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR
SOUR LAKE.

OTHERWISE...AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AS IS THE CASE
DURING ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS
MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.

$$

[Sean in New Orleans]

It is amazing that we are far away here in Mobile area and we are getting winds up to 35mph. It has picked up all day. A lot of the low lying areas are flooded and the Mobile Bay has covered the old causeway. The Gulf of Mexico is flooding Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, and Dauphin Island.

Here are some pictures from the area
http://www.myfoxgulfcoast.com/myfox/

The wind field is very impressive....almost seems like there is something else going on to make the wind field so gigantic, but, I can't pinpoint it. In any case, the forecast on WWL radio earlier this evening called for gusts up to 65 mph for New Orleans later tonight and all day tomorrow, with sustained winds around 35 go 45 mph. Very impressed with the wind field. It knocked my power out earlier this eveing for an hour and a half in the middle of New Orleans.

[Rod Hagen]

10PM Advisory confirms that btw to the individual I was debating with. Storm at 26.3N

Must have taken a northward "wobble" at the last moment, weatherfreak!

But you have to consider the westings as well as the northings.

The 11/2100Z position was 26.0N 89.4 W
The 12 hr forecast position at that time was for 26.6N 90.9W

In the 6 hrs intermediate forecast i (with that last minute northern "wobble" ) it had reached 26.3N 90.4W

In other words it had made .3ºN (50% of the expected northings as forecast), but a full degree west (75% of those expected in the 12 hour forecast).

I'll let you do the calculations, but the track is accordingly significantly further south than was anticipated by the previous forecast. OK, maybe not half a degree, (at least with that wobble! ) but probably 15 to 20 miles - enough to make a difference over time. (It is also travelling a tad faster than previously forecast)

Cheers

Rod (aka "that individual" )

[Sihara]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

Frances tore our huge old oak up by the roots and laid in on its side -- after she came through as a TS.
A tall palm tree in the back yard is bent from stem to stern.

Wow, that's something, dixiebreeze - yeah, I've had to do storm cleanup after a mess like that.

Palms vary wildly in storm-resistance. The golden cane (erroneously called areca) is pretty good, as are sabals. The dwarf date palms stood up thru Andrew. OTOH, bismarkias, triangles and queens are more likely to fall.


Trees cause a lot of damage, not only to homes, but also impeding emergency vehicles when they fall in the road.

[Storm Contractor]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

No, not really! The large leaf structure tends to help drag the tree down esp if the soil get saturated. Oaks have suprisingly small root structure for such a large tree. That was one of the saddest things to see post Charley in Orlando were all of the oaks that were hundreds of years old toppled! I remember one of the houses we rebuilt looked like a halfpipe skateboard ramp after the tree was cut out! That oak had to have a 4' radius!

That makes me think of a very important thought: Look at your house and see which rooms could be effected by falling trees and stay OUT of those rooms during the storm!! Falling trees are VERY DANGEROUS!
'
Be SAFE!

[Sihara]

Look at your house and see which rooms could be effected by falling trees and stay OUT of those rooms during the storm!! Falling trees are VERY DANGEROUS!

Be SAFE!

This is important advice - people have been killed in cars and in their homes by falling trees.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've been watch the trough since this morning. The southern extint hasn't moved much at all...still in western New Mexico. Further north, leading edge was in in western CO this morning, and looks like it might have cleared the state.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

Also, ridge is holding firmly over Ike.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Bottom line, in this amateur opinion Ike may come in a little south of the projected path.

[Just Joshing You]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

Frances tore our huge old oak up by the roots and laid in on its side -- after she came through as a TS.
A tall palm tree in the back yard is bent from stem to stern.

Wow, that's something, dixiebreeze - yeah, I've had to do storm cleanup after a mess like that.

Palms vary wildly in storm-resistance. The golden cane (erroneously called areca) is pretty good, as are sabals. The dwarf date palms stood up thru Andrew. OTOH, bismarkias, triangles and queens are more likely to fall.


Trees cause a lot of damage, not only to homes, but also impeding emergency vehicles when they fall in the road.

During Hurricane Juan, a tree fell on top of an Ambulance, killing them.

[CajunMama]

Oak trees have a shallow root system. That's one main reason you see so many blown over. Pine has more of a tendency to snap because they have slim trunks and are usually so tall.

[Tireman4]

Look how monstrously big that eyewall is now! If the center goes into Galveston as predicted the NE eyewall will come in at the TX-LA border!

That enormous gap in the W wall pretty much nixes any chance of significant strengthening IMO.

Yep. This storm is huge. I feel for the folks in Baton Rouge. According to KTRH this morning (Houston Radio Station), 40 percent still do not have power from Gustav. They could get rains and serious gusty winds.