ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

I'm beginning to wonder if Tampa will see any rainfall from this....except if she can actually bend back west in a couple of days like models are hinting...

The Tampa forcfield has worked yet again ---

Just take a moment to look at this RADAR image out of Tampa. There is literally a wall just east of Tampa where the rain stops...

unbelievable and I really think there is a forcefield now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Terry]

I'm beginning to wonder if Tampa will see any rainfall from this....except if she can actually bend back west in a couple of days like models are hinting...

The Tampa forcfield has worked yet again ---

Just take a moment to look at this RADAR image out of Tampa. There is literally a wall just east of Tampa where the rain stops...

unbelievable and I really think there is a forcefield now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

I hope someone can explain that "wall" to me. I'm out on the beach to the west of it. Most peculiar.

[divanicki75]

If this gets out a more strong storm than once forcasted, could this get farther north along the GA coast than tought, by being able to fight the ridge.

Hi fellow SC-er... glad I'm not the only one up here concerned about the possibility of it hitting us... lol I have 2 toddlers, so I need to scramble if it does head this way, and I've heard nightmarish things about the highways when 'canes come this way.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Who's to say she can't loop the other way (E then ESE then S then WSW).

Doubtful but Fay's is throwing alot of curve balls so I wonder!

They don't typically do that when a ridge is involved because the steering flow around a ridge is clockwise and that would be like swimming against the current to start that kind of loop, rather than workign with the current and going the other way. (Think how gears are joined together for a visual image of the way they wouldn't work the other way)

[MiamiensisWx]

There is NO Tampa Bay "force field." It's merely a coincidence that Fay's cloud coverage is slightly more compact.

The fact that a certain number of TCs has hit (or avoided) a specific locale is the random, spatial distribution of statistics. There's NO pattern.

[jinftl]

This is not the first storm that has either stregthened or failed to weaken while crossing the fl peninsula. We saw that with Irene back in '99. To some extent we saw that with Katrina as well as she moved wsw over miami-dade county. Wilma maintained herself very well over the Everglades as well.

A storm moving east to west or west to east across the peninsula is essentially moving over a 100 mile-wide "island" or strip of land..alot of which is swampy. These storms have high heat content water all around them when they are over the peninsula..and although the core is on land...there has to be some 'boost' that takes place when a storm still has so much water around it....it can draw that energy in.

[RL3AO]

The center has warmed quite a bit in the new IR image. Very impressive. It must be feeling the warm waters of Lake Okeechobbee.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Yeah I know but we see how Tampa misses tropical cyclone action, time, and time, again no matter how progged that area is for a hit.

[AdamFirst]

Eye feature seems to be growing smaller and smaller on radar

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

I work over by tampa international airport we just got a light spritz of rain .... btw i told my boss this morning about the loop-de-loop and he said i was crazy ... then i showed him Storm2k and he cam to his sences ... lol

[gatorcane]

I'm pretty sure she's moving ENE now based on the last couple of frames.

Then again, could be a wobble.....strangely her eye is filling in as she starts to go over Lake O, yet again defying conventional thinking.

[MiamiensisWx]

Eye feature seems to be growing smaller and smaller on radar

System is slowly decaying as it moves inland and farther away from its source of energy (which is the Gulf of Mexico).

[CrazyC83]

At least this is Florida where such could be somewhat expected and not Oklahoma.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some boring old storm eh? These are the ones that teach us the most. The perfect environment but without water can still maintain a storm. I say maintain even though there is some evidence of strengthening. She must have been bombing right off the coast and that momentum has continued.

I would love to see a pro-met and the NHC analyze this.

There is a now locked thread where someone complained of over-hype. Imagine if the path had been just a little different, a few more hours over water.

BTW, this has maintained well, and Mr. Avila hasn't ruled out the 6Z GFDL scenario of this getting close to major hurricane status before its 3rd (after EYW and SW Florida) landfall, and if the 12Z GFS is right, could be 4 Florida landfalls!

[jinftl]

why wouldn't the atlantic be a source as well?

Eye feature seems to be growing smaller and smaller on radar

System is slowly decaying as it moves inland and farther away from its source of energy (which is the Gulf of Mexico).

[gatorcane]

if she kept heading ENE (which she shouldn't) she could be over water by later this evening at the latest and near the Gulf Stream.

[MiamiensisWx]

why wouldn't the atlantic be a source as well?

The system's original source (after the Caribbean Sea) was primarily the GOM, though the SW Atlantic played a role as well.

[Derek Ortt]

Eye feature seems to be growing smaller and smaller on radar

System is slowly decaying as it moves inland and farther away from its source of energy (which is the Gulf of Mexico).

eye has become better defined recently on radar

it is moving very close to the Lake. Just recall Danny over Mobile Bay

[cycloneye]

620
WTNT51 KNHC 191751
TCEAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS NEAR LAKEPORT FLORIDA AND ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

[cpdaman]

derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today, perhaps leaving Fay near canaveral.