ATL: Tropical Depression Fay
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Ed Mahmoud wrote:BTW, this has maintained well, and Mr. Avila hasn't ruled out the 6Z GFDL scenario of this getting close to major hurricane status before its 3rd (after EYW and SW Florida) landfall, and if the 12Z GFS is right, could be 4 Florida landfalls!
Although the location is different, this storm is reminding be quite a bit of 1950's Easy, which hit Cedar Key twice and then dropped SE and hit Homosassa north of Tarpon Springs.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... 2&t=h&z=11
Moving over a lot of what appears to be west land, including the edge of the lake. From the looks of it terrain stays about the same until near the east coast. Can any residents confirm this?
Moving over a lot of what appears to be west land, including the edge of the lake. From the looks of it terrain stays about the same until near the east coast. Can any residents confirm this?
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today
Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
Could still be trending right and exiting nearer Melbourne.
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radar presentation as of 147 looking a bit better, tigher
who ever lives on the north shore of the lake on the W end is getting a beating along with moore haven
who ever lives on the north shore of the lake on the W end is getting a beating along with moore haven
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
gatorcane wrote:cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today
Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?
Not sure how you are seeing that. Its moving about 25 degrees at 8kt when I measure on radar.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
so the atlantic is now the primary source...fay isn't picky or loyal to her birthplace...she will take 88 degree water where she finds it
MiamiensisWx wrote:jinftl wrote:why wouldn't the atlantic be a source as well?
The system's original source (after the Caribbean Sea) was primarily the GOM, though the SW Atlantic played a role as well.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
RL3AO wrote:gatorcane wrote:cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today
Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?
Not sure how you are seeing that. Its moving about 25 degrees at 8kt when I measure on radar.
try this link and look at the ENE bend towards the end:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...
GIFFORD...FELLSMERE...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...OR ABOUT
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. ..MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 200 PM EDT...
GIFFORD AND INDIAN RIVER SHORES BY 205 PM EDT...
WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO BY 210 PM EDT...
SEBASTIAN...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND ROSELAND BY 215 PM EDT...
RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 85 MPH WITH THIS CELL!!!
Three explanation points. Was it written by a 12 year old?
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...
GIFFORD...FELLSMERE...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...OR ABOUT
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. ..MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 200 PM EDT...
GIFFORD AND INDIAN RIVER SHORES BY 205 PM EDT...
WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO BY 210 PM EDT...
SEBASTIAN...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND ROSELAND BY 215 PM EDT...
RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 85 MPH WITH THIS CELL!!!
Three explanation points. Was it written by a 12 year old?

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Re:
MiamiensisWx wrote:There is NO Tampa Bay "force field." It's merely a coincidence that Fay's cloud coverage is slightly more compact.
The fact that a certain number of TCs has hit (or avoided) a specific locale is the random, spatial distribution of statistics. There's NO pattern.
Joe Bastardi would disagree w/ you, with respect to that part of the Florida Peninsula North of Tampa up to 'The Bight of Florida'. Storms can hit, but per JB, nature of coast line and water depth, storms heading North tend to upwell cool water in their path and pull in slightly drier air off land. He cites example of Labor Day Storm, which was a Cat 5 in the Keys but only a Cat 1 extreme Northeast GOM.
JB has written prime time for Tampa area is later in the season, with storms from the Caribbean approaching from the West.
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Re:
cpdaman wrote:radar presentation as of 147 looking a bit better, tigher
who ever lives on the north shore of the lake on the W end is getting a beating along with moore haven
As long as there is no damage; this is the ideal place for Fay to rain, rain, rain; over Lake O!!!!
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- Ground_Zero_92
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
tolakram wrote:Some boring old storm eh? These are the ones that teach us the most. The perfect environment but without water can still maintain a storm. I say maintain even though there is some evidence of strengthening. She must have been bombing right off the coast and that momentum has continued.
I would love to see a pro-met and the NHC analyze this.
I hardly see this as a boring storm. There is no less than a foot of water on my street. My entire street looks like a flowing river. Some water entered the first floor of the house. Not so boring when you're effected.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
RL3AO wrote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...
GIFFORD...FELLSMERE...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...OR ABOUT
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. ..MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 200 PM EDT...
GIFFORD AND INDIAN RIVER SHORES BY 205 PM EDT...
WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO BY 210 PM EDT...
SEBASTIAN...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND ROSELAND BY 215 PM EDT...
RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 85 MPH WITH THIS CELL!!!
Three explanation points. Was it written by a 12 year old?
They are not uncommon, although that is more used in a tornado outbreak situation.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
RLAO3 what are you thoughts on the steering later today, trough axis lifting east, does the periphery of the ridge become N-S oriented or sw/ne and does the ridge influence bulge west soon or east? does she make it to water, also less influence from the ULL and high interation in the s. plains . lol lots of question but you are a knowledgable kind of guy.,
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula
yep...you got it...picture swamps until you get about 10 miles from the coast...we all live in that 10 mile strip with the everglades on one side and the atlantic on the other. Land is flat as a pancake as well...maybe 8 or 10 feet at highest points.
tolakram wrote:http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=florida&ie=UTF8&ll=27.01509,-80.945892&spn=0.453285,0.568542&t=h&z=11
Moving over a lot of what appears to be west land, including the edge of the lake. From the looks of it terrain stays about the same until near the east coast. Can any residents confirm this?
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