ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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CrazyC83
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#10101 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:51 pm

My guess for the current intensity: 65 kt, based on that surface observation. I guess Fay is taking notes from Erin last year (and I disagreed with them calling it a "low" over Oklahoma)...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10102 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:51 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:BTW, this has maintained well, and Mr. Avila hasn't ruled out the 6Z GFDL scenario of this getting close to major hurricane status before its 3rd (after EYW and SW Florida) landfall, and if the 12Z GFS is right, could be 4 Florida landfalls!


Although the location is different, this storm is reminding be quite a bit of 1950's Easy, which hit Cedar Key twice and then dropped SE and hit Homosassa north of Tarpon Springs.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10103 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:51 pm

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... 2&t=h&z=11

Moving over a lot of what appears to be west land, including the edge of the lake. From the looks of it terrain stays about the same until near the east coast. Can any residents confirm this?
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10104 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:52 pm

cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today


Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10105 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:52 pm

Could still be trending right and exiting nearer Melbourne.
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#10106 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:53 pm

radar presentation as of 147 looking a bit better, tigher

who ever lives on the north shore of the lake on the W end is getting a beating along with moore haven
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10107 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:
cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today


Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?


Not sure how you are seeing that. Its moving about 25 degrees at 8kt when I measure on radar.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10108 Postby jinftl » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm

so the atlantic is now the primary source...fay isn't picky or loyal to her birthplace...she will take 88 degree water where she finds it

MiamiensisWx wrote:
jinftl wrote:why wouldn't the atlantic be a source as well?

The system's original source (after the Caribbean Sea) was primarily the GOM, though the SW Atlantic played a role as well.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10109 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm

RL3AO wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
cpdaman wrote:derek do you see the steering flow becoming weaker and more NNE later today


Good question because I see an ENE movement now...will it continue?


Not sure how you are seeing that. Its moving about 25 degrees at 8kt when I measure on radar.


try this link and look at the ENE bend towards the end:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
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#10110 Postby Clipper96 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:54 pm

If Fay presenting moving northeast as fast as forecast? (IOW, is it appearing more, or less, likely that she will make a left jog back into the Gulf as many models are predicting?)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10111 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:55 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...
GIFFORD...FELLSMERE...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...OR ABOUT
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. ..MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 200 PM EDT...
GIFFORD AND INDIAN RIVER SHORES BY 205 PM EDT...
WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO BY 210 PM EDT...
SEBASTIAN...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND ROSELAND BY 215 PM EDT...

RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 85 MPH WITH THIS CELL!!!

Three explanation points. Was it written by a 12 year old? :)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#10112 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:55 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:There is NO Tampa Bay "force field." It's merely a coincidence that Fay's cloud coverage is slightly more compact.

The fact that a certain number of TCs has hit (or avoided) a specific locale is the random, spatial distribution of statistics. There's NO pattern.



Joe Bastardi would disagree w/ you, with respect to that part of the Florida Peninsula North of Tampa up to 'The Bight of Florida'. Storms can hit, but per JB, nature of coast line and water depth, storms heading North tend to upwell cool water in their path and pull in slightly drier air off land. He cites example of Labor Day Storm, which was a Cat 5 in the Keys but only a Cat 1 extreme Northeast GOM.

JB has written prime time for Tampa area is later in the season, with storms from the Caribbean approaching from the West.
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Re:

#10113 Postby fci » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:56 pm

cpdaman wrote:radar presentation as of 147 looking a bit better, tigher

who ever lives on the north shore of the lake on the W end is getting a beating along with moore haven


As long as there is no damage; this is the ideal place for Fay to rain, rain, rain; over Lake O!!!!
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#10114 Postby jhpigott » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:56 pm

any opinions on whether the eastern edge of her core rain field will make in over to NE Palm Beach County (I'm in NPB and i'm wondering how much more "weather" i'm going to see today)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10115 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:56 pm

tolakram wrote:Some boring old storm eh? These are the ones that teach us the most. The perfect environment but without water can still maintain a storm. I say maintain even though there is some evidence of strengthening. She must have been bombing right off the coast and that momentum has continued.

I would love to see a pro-met and the NHC analyze this.


I hardly see this as a boring storm. There is no less than a foot of water on my street. My entire street looks like a flowing river. Some water entered the first floor of the house. Not so boring when you're effected.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10116 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...
GIFFORD...FELLSMERE...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...OR ABOUT
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. ..MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH BY 200 PM EDT...
GIFFORD AND INDIAN RIVER SHORES BY 205 PM EDT...
WINTER BEACH AND WABASSO BY 210 PM EDT...
SEBASTIAN...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND ROSELAND BY 215 PM EDT...

RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 85 MPH WITH THIS CELL!!!

Three explanation points. Was it written by a 12 year old? :)


They are not uncommon, although that is more used in a tornado outbreak situation.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10117 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:56 pm

RLAO3 what are you thoughts on the steering later today, trough axis lifting east, does the periphery of the ridge become N-S oriented or sw/ne and does the ridge influence bulge west soon or east? does she make it to water, also less influence from the ULL and high interation in the s. plains . lol lots of question but you are a knowledgable kind of guy.,
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10118 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:57 pm

I'm sure we'll all be eating crow for dinner if they declare this a hurricane over land...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#10119 Postby jinftl » Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:58 pm

yep...you got it...picture swamps until you get about 10 miles from the coast...we all live in that 10 mile strip with the everglades on one side and the atlantic on the other. Land is flat as a pancake as well...maybe 8 or 10 feet at highest points.

tolakram wrote:http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=florida&ie=UTF8&ll=27.01509,-80.945892&spn=0.453285,0.568542&t=h&z=11

Moving over a lot of what appears to be west land, including the edge of the lake. From the looks of it terrain stays about the same until near the east coast. Can any residents confirm this?
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Derek Ortt

#10120 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:00 pm

the population that lives along the north shore of the Lake is right where the lake comes to a head

its where the tidal surge will be highest (and it could be somewhat significant as it is a shallow lake)
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