ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gtsmith]

awesome gt. Thanks. Wish more people would post photos and videos.

Steve

Thanks Steve...it was shot in HD too...to bad it has to be downsized for youtube...I rendered the vid at HD resolution and it's about 650MB...far too big to be hosting anywhere, so I guess that on will have to do...

repost: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pemKua_KXhI

[RL3AO]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite.

Yep. Lets see how long this lasts.

[tolakram]

[Just Joshing You]

That GFS run reminds me of some storm that hit Madagascar like 8 times.

[CronkPSU]

after a HUGE feederband yesterday afternoon that gave us nearly 2 inches in an hour and knocked down a bunch of branches on site, we had nothing until the past half hour

[cpdaman]

awesome gt. Thanks. Wish more people would post photos and videos.

Steve

Thanks Steve...it was shot in HD too...to bad it has to be downsized for youtube...I rendered the vid at HD resolution and it's about 650MB...far too big to be hosting anywhere, so I guess that on will have to do...

repost: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pemKua_KXhI

nice video, good quality

now let's see if we can get you to race over to okeechobee to video the likely storm surge occuring there over the next hour or two

[Clipper96]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite.

Yep. Lets see how long this lasts.

If I didn't know any better, and I probably don't, it looks like Fay will move N for a few more hours, then shank hard left and go back into the Gulf on a WNW track. The ridge is building in fast north of her.

[Wthrman13]

Do you all have any reasonable ideas on why this Storm seems to be intensifying over land?

It's not just seeming to intensify over land, it IS intensifying over land (or was up to this point at least). The pressure dropped to 986 mb, and the winds have come up to 65 mph.

As far as why, two likely reasons are the relaxation in shear coinciding with the NE turn that just happened to occur around landfall, and low-level frictional convergence tightening up the circulation and intensifying convection near the center. It's anyone's guess how long this effect lasts.

This is not the first time a tropical cyclone has intensified over land, although this appears to be the most dramatic example in recent memory. They get quite a few down in Australia (the "landphoons"). Tropical Storm Erin did here in my neck of the woods last year (whether as a true TC or not, I'll leave as a debate for another time, but I come down strongly in the "true" TC camp), and there have been a few TC's that have intensified over the Yucatan, if I recall correctly.

[gtsmith]

Seeings how Steve asked...here's a couple of pics (MODS: if this is the wrong thread to post pics...I apologise in advance)

West Palm Beach, Palm Beach Lakes Blvd around 9:00AM this morning:


Outside my Grandkids house this morning in Boynton Beach:


Jupiter Beach this morning around 10:00AM between squalls:


Juno Beach Pier same time as above:

[CronkPSU]

any models calling for it to go back into the GOM yet and then come back into florida? I am guessing one of them will soon enough

[cpdaman]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite.

Yep. Lets see how long this lasts.

If I didn't know any better, and I probably don't, it looks like Fay will move N for a few more hours, then shank hard left and go back into the Gulf on a WNW track. The ridge is building in fast north of her.

clipper you know......i buy it

[Derek Ortt]

there is also an absurred amount of divergence at the upper levels ahead of the system

[Just Joshing You]

any models calling for it to go back into the GOM yet and then come back into florida? I am guessing one of them will soon enough

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Just like the Madagascar Cyclone that made landfall like 6 times or so.

[mutley]

there is also an absurred amount of divergence at the upper levels ahead of the system

I'm not sure what that means, but it doesn't sound good.

[Toyota Thundra]

Its just fun to watch a storm try to defy all of the models and tracks. Then she gets over land, and intensifies Strange, but nonetheless cool I guess part of it could be the big warm south FL bath we made for her, she liked it.

[Derek Ortt]

still moving to the NNE... dont expect to see a turn to the north until it is very close to the Atlantic

[divanicki75]

gtsmith: thanks for the pictures. My friend in Port St. Lucie sent me some pictures earlier with her neighbor's kids canoeing down the street... what a sight!

[Clipper96]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite. If I didn't know any better, and I probably don't, it looks like Fay will move N for a few more hours, then shank hard left and go back into the Gulf on a WNW track. The ridge is building in fast north of her.

clipper you know......i buy it

The Tampa guy will finally get his rain, and New Orleans might get to be an election issue again (Good Lord, let's hope not).

[micktooth]

Do you all have any reasonable ideas on why this Storm seems to be intensifying over land?

It's not just seeming to intensify over land, it IS intensifying over land (or was up to this point at least). The pressure dropped to 986 mb, and the winds have come up to 65 mph.

As far as why, two likely reasons are the relaxation in shear coinciding with the NE turn that just happened to occur around landfall, and low-level frictional convergence tightening up the circulation and intensifying convection near the center. It's anyone's guess how long this effect lasts.

This is not the first time a tropical cyclone has intensified over land, although this appears to be the most dramatic example in recent memory. They get quite a few down in Australia (the "landphoons"). Tropical Storm Erin did here in my neck of the woods last year (whether as a true TC or not, I'll leave as a debate for another time, but I come down strongly in the "true" TC camp), and there have been a few TC's that have intensified over the Yucatan, if I recall correctly.

Thanks soooo much, this is one of the reasons I love studying the weather....you just never know!

[gtsmith]

gtsmith: thanks for the pictures. My friend in Port St. Lucie sent me some pictures earlier with her neighbor's kids canoeing down the street... what a sight!

my pleasure....if they had had a canoe they'd have been doing the same thing ...i just heard fromt hem and they can just now get out of their driveway!