ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

News is reporting BR is getting 90mph sustained winds - Hold on !!!

Wouldn't surprise me. BR looks to be just outside the eye, but they aren't that far from the center on the northeast side, usually the strongest side of the storm.

NHC says Gustav is cat-1 now...

[HarlequinBoy]

Baton Rouge airport officially at hurricane gusts now.

[evalea]

update from Youngsville, still got power, satellite tv and phone.

Its gusting pretty good now, probably around 40mph. Had a couple of hiccups on the power, but its holding. Still idiots driving around past my house. No major damage visible yet. Just the trailers opposite losing their skirting, everyone still has a full complement of shingles.
My porch is shielded from the NE so I can get a good view of what is going on very safely.

Ach. might be speaking too soon power is really sketchy and I'm switching to mobile broadband after I post this

[HarlequinBoy]

1101 AM HURRICANE HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
09/01/2008 TERREBONNE LA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN BLOCKING HWY 90 INTO HOUMA. WINDS ESTIMATED AT
90-95 MPH. REPORT RELAYED BY LCH.

0715 AM HURRICANE GRAND ISLE 29.21N 90.03W
09/01/2008 JEFFERSON LA MESONET

MESONET OBSERVATION MEASURED ESE 105 MPH. RAINFALL
UPDATED TO 14.76 INCHES. WATER LEVEL 4.04 FEET. PRESSURE
977.9 MILLIBARS. BAROMETRIC V.

[Enzo Aquarius]

200 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...CENTER APPROACHING
NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
FRANKLIN LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NEW IBERIA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 75
MPH...121 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION...29.9 N...91.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

[BigA]

Where is everyone finding these gusts of hurricane force winds in Baton Rouge? I don't disbelieve anyone; I'm just curious.

[Sanibel]

Baton Rogue is just finishing taking the darkest red IR bands in the hurricane core.

[otowntiger]

Where is everyone finding these gusts of hurricane force winds in Baton Rouge? I don't disbelieve anyone; I'm just curious.

Noaa.gov, Wafb tv - just said the airport got a 74 mph gust. Keep in mind that is on extreme northern side of the city, downtown and points south in the metro area are undoubtedly getting higher winds than that.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Baton Rogue is just finishing taking the darkest red IR bands in the hurricane core.

Stuck in the rain band though. Still two more major ones to go though from the looks of radar. The second band, which features a ton of red, is moving in towards New Orleans.

[Sanibel]

Wind direction is changing more south for New Orleans and the surge angle.

I think this is the bad angle now for the West Bank and canals to its south.

[tolakram]

[Shawee]

the more I think about the levee design in New Orleans, the angrier I get. It is so half assed its not even funny. They need to consult with engineers from the Netherlands, who have the finest dike and levee systems in the world. It is highly important that these levees have thresholds far above even the strongest hurricane. It would cost a lot but so does search and rescue and extensive flood damage. Personally Id rarther spend a hundred million on getting the levees right than dealing with the social and political repercussions of a disasterl ike Katrina. but then again, Im not a Louisiana politician.

Oh, it's way more expensive than that -- it'd be billions up on billions. But I agree; if you're going to have a major metropolitan city below sea level that is very prone to getting hurricanes, you should fortify it so you don't have to drain the place every 20 years. It's not like we live in Haiti and can't afford it that kind of protection.

my point is, price shouldnt matter when youre talking about protecting a major historical city, critical port, and population center. IT should have one of the finest levee systems in the world but its so amateur looking.

New Orleans is ultimately doomed. Not in our lifetime, probably, but it's going to continue to subside and get further and further below sea level. And it has nothing to do with global warming or rising sea levels. It has everything to do with the natural geologic processes that have been going on for millions of years.

It's the way of the Gulf Coast. We can't stop it.

We can continue to build higher levees, but can we build them 2000 feet high? 5 miles high?

New Orleans is going to continue to sink below sea level and there is not anything we can do to stop it.[/quote]

read some Natural History and the causes of the sinking (and until the navigation improvements and river levees). We are not "doomed", but everyone is entitled to opinions.

Sorry, back on topic. I'm still concerned about the west bank, Lafourche and other areas; the wetland loss (caused by leveeing the Mississippi, oil and gas elploration canals and other nav. canals such as the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) has extremely lessened the surge breaking effects... and the surge generally comes after the storm passes so we are not out of the woods.

[Enzo Aquarius]

CNN was just showing a levee on the Industrial Canal that cracked and is leaking water.

[Janie2006]

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

This may be one of the best understatements of the day.

[Innotech]

just got some wicked gusts here. Power blinked once but returned quickly, and our small TV and modem remained on. Its really going downhill fast, exactly on schedule.

[Enzo Aquarius]

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

This may be one of the best understatements of the day.

'A few', with all of these warnings?

[jabman98]

CNN was just showing a levee on the Industrial Canal that cracked and is leaking water.

Then they said it was designed to leak some water, although not as much as was coming through. Still they don't seem too concerned about it.

[Shockwave]

CNN was just showing a levee on the Industrial Canal that cracked and is leaking water.

How bad of a leak did it look to be?

[Shockwave]

CNN was just showing a levee on the Industrial Canal that cracked and is leaking water.

Then they said it was designed to leak some water, although not as much as was coming through. Still they don't seem too concerned about it.

I thought they wanted it to overshoot, but I thought if it was leaking that was a bad sign.

[Enzo Aquarius]

CNN was just showing a levee on the Industrial Canal that cracked and is leaking water.

How bad of a leak did it look to be?

As was mentioned above, they didn't seem to concerned. The leak wasn't letting out huge amounts of water, but we'll see as the water starts to affect the cracks in the wall more.