ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sihara]

there is also an absurred amount of divergence at the upper levels ahead of the system

I'm not sure what that means, but it doesn't sound good.

Yes, what does than mean? And how will it affect Fay?

[Stormcenter]

any models calling for it to go back into the GOM yet and then come back into florida? I am guessing one of them will soon enough

GFS has Fay coming back into the GOM and then hooking back NE over the Fl. panhandle.

[Stormcenter]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite. If I didn't know any better, and I probably don't, it looks like Fay will move N for a few more hours, then shank hard left and go back into the Gulf on a WNW track. The ridge is building in fast north of her.

clipper you know......i buy it

The Tampa guy will finally get his rain, and New Orleans might get to be an election issue again (Good Lord, let's hope not).

I don't recall any model showing this making landfall in New Orleans.

[tampastorm]

Heading Due North? Is this a joke?

[sunny]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite. If I didn't know any better, and I probably don't, it looks like Fay will move N for a few more hours, then shank hard left and go back into the Gulf on a WNW track. The ridge is building in fast north of her.

clipper you know......i buy it

The Tampa guy will finally get his rain, and New Orleans might get to be an election issue again (Good Lord, let's hope not).

That is so not funny

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear to be separating from the trough.

[Cyclenall]

I just got on now to find Fay forming an eyewall and eye right over the middle of Flordia. This is one of the most dramatic land strengthening storms (Erin was better) I have seen.

[Brent]

there is also an absurred amount of divergence at the upper levels ahead of the system

I'm not sure what that means, but it doesn't sound good.

Yes, what does than mean? And how will it affect Fay?

Divergence is basically instability which leads to thunderstorm formation. It will cause organization and likely strengthening.

[Stormcenter]

Fay is moving along and not stalling....yet.
She is also shrinking in size (weakening maybe) for the
moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[PTrackerLA]

VERY uncalled for comment.


Anyway, I don't see this making it much further west than Mobile if it even rememerges back into the Gulf. The persistence of the GFS is disturbing however.

[Stormcenter]

Heading Due North? Is this a joke?

It must be because she still moving NNE.

[Dean4Storms]

Divergence aloft means lots of venting or ideal for strengthening.

[timeflow]

I think what Derek was saying, if someone could clarify, is that an absurd amount of upper level divergence would reflect back creating the potential for an insane amount of low level convergence by way of Fay, so "get out the way"... have a nice day.

[Lowpressure]

Could we delete the election comment and stay focused on this most interesting tropical system? I have never seen a storm like this, truly fascinating.

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

West end of the lake
991MB, 61MPH

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... p?ID=ML005


Okeechobee City

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLOKEEC1

[AdamFirst]

Convection seems to be rebuilding slightly south of the eye feature

It's a little odd since visible satellite looks like its heading NE but radar has it going NNE

[SoupBone]

I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.

[wxman57]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite.

Yep. Lets see how long this lasts.

1 hour movement 8.5nm at 010 degrees. Only about 1/2 knot slower but heading 010 vs. 028 of earlier.

[Just Joshing You]

OH MY GOD! Did you guys see the video of the 'kite surfer' who challenged Fay?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe ... arder.wfor