ATL: IKE Discussion

[txag2005]

There have been some people callin now for years to make a scale that goes along with the SS scale for surge. There really is no reason NOT to have 2 different number.. For heavens sake people comprehend hi/lo temps. They can handle a this is a Cat 2/4 storm (Cat 2 winds/Cat 4 surge).

This storm once again shows why such a system should be put in place.

I agree. There are tons of people throughout Galveston County well within evac Zone A (for cat 1 or 2 hurricane surge) sticking around, and evacs were only given for up to Zone B (for cat 3 surge). I'm afraid if we do get surge on par with a Cat 4, there are going to be thousands within Galveston and SE Harris County sticking this thing out that will have their lives at risk.

Overall, I would say the vast majority of the Houston area is still in town, which is concerning.

[alicia83]

KHOU interviewed some guy living at Surfside who was planning to ride out the storm. Then they showed him riding off on a 4 wheeler with his about 6yr. old son. Why in the future can't the state or police take these children and evacuate them, and leave the idiot parents to do whatever they want?

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

tropical storm force gusts

[serenata09]

Is Ike still traveling in a more westerly direction?

[Nexus]

Looks like G-13 is up tonight as well (05:15z):



Loop here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL092008

Seems Ike's quasi CDO is growing, and getting colder (again).

[Pebbles]

KHOU interviewed some guy living at Surfside who was planning to ride out the storm. Then they showed him riding off on a 4 wheeler with his about 6yr. old son. Why in the future can't the state or police take these children and evacuate them, and leave the idiot parents to do whatever they want?

I saw that too.. and felt like crying. It's really not right. Guess the police came up to the reporter they have there and told her and the crew they needed to move (again) off the island because the water is already rising. I have been thinking about that kid for like the past 2 hours.

[physicx07]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Wow! I didn't expect the wind field to the west to be that large, but then I've just logged on tonight so haven't seen what's going on. 155 miles to the east, no surprise, but west, definitely a

edit: Oh 122m up, OK not that shocking then.

[PTrackerLA]

There have been some people callin now for years to make a scale that goes along with the SS scale for surge. There really is no reason NOT to have 2 different number.. For heavens sake people comprehend hi/lo temps. They can handle a this is a Cat 2/4 storm (Cat 2 winds/Cat 4 surge).

This storm once again shows why such a system should be put in place.

I agree 100000%

Completely agree as well, this will probably get looked into after Ike's surge is realized. Had a shower move through about 20 minutes ago and since then we've been getting some pretty good gusts in the 30-40mph range. I can't wait to see the visible shot of Ike in the morning, it has really grown in size (cloud canopy) tonight and in my nearly two decades of closely following storms I've never seen anything this massive in the Gulf. Wind radius needs to be a factor in the SS scale or, as you say a second scale.

[PTrackerLA]

There have been some people callin now for years to make a scale that goes along with the SS scale for surge. There really is no reason NOT to have 2 different number.. For heavens sake people comprehend hi/lo temps. They can handle a this is a Cat 2/4 storm (Cat 2 winds/Cat 4 surge).

This storm once again shows why such a system should be put in place.

I agree 100000%

Completely agree as well, this will probably get looked into after Ike's surge is realized. Had a shower move through about 20 minutes ago and since then we've been getting some pretty good gusts in the 30-40mph range. I can't wait to see the visible shot of Ike in the morning, it has really grown in size (cloud canopy) tonight and in my nearly two decades of closely following storms I've never seen anything this massive in the Gulf. Wind radius needs to be a factor in the SS scale or, as you say, a second scale.

[physicx07]

KHOU interviewed some guy living at Surfside who was planning to ride out the storm. Then they showed him riding off on a 4 wheeler with his about 6yr. old son. Why in the future can't the state or police take these children and evacuate them, and leave the idiot parents to do whatever they want?

I saw that too.. and felt like crying. It's really not right. Guess the police came up to the reporter they have there and told her and the crew they needed to move (again) off the island because the water is already rising. I have been thinking about that kid for like the past 2 hours.

During Gustav when I expressed my disbelief that someone would want to ride out the storm on his boat in Houma with their kids, I got schooled by someone on here: "Don't judge people's parenting skills!" Umm, yeah

[Nexus]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Wow! I didn't expect the wind field to the west to be that large, but then I've just logged on tonight so haven't seen what's going on. 155 miles to the east, no surprise, but west, definitely a

edit: Oh 122m up, OK not that shocking then.

Yeah it's an oil rig platform, not a buoy. I'll edit that.

[WxGuy1]

000
URNT12 KNHC 120621
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/05:46:20Z
B. 26 deg 23 min N
091 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2729 m
D. 71 kt
E. 135 deg 41 nm
F. 221 deg 090 kt
G. 134 deg 051 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 10 C/ 3052 m
J. 15 C/ 3051 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 06:07:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND SFC WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 06:08:00 Z

Pressure up, FL winds up. At least there is an ob to support the current SFC winds.

[ROCK]

Sorry if this is off topic...


expected surge on the westend near San luis Pass? I saw 12ft....does that 12 ft include wave heights?

[Pebbles]

Yes saw that 120mph flight level wind with the SFMR of 96mph

[therock1811]

Senobia,

That forecast was computer generated first off. As Ike goes inland, winds should weaken. I would need to know exactly where you are evac'ing to however to be able to tell you accurately how strong winds will be. 100 miles inland, however, with this storm, isn't likely to mean much as the wind field is so large currently.

[Nexus]

MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 06:07:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND SFC WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 06:08:00 Z

108kt flight level are the highest fl winds in quite a while.

[Windy]

Sorry if this is off topic...


expected surge on the westend near San luis Pass? I saw 12ft....does that 12 ft include wave heights?

I don't think surge forecasts ever include wave heights.

[TexasSam]

Sorry if this is off topic...


expected surge on the westend near San luis Pass? I saw 12ft....does that 12 ft include wave heights?

The waves would be on top of the storm surge.

[ROCK]

Sorry if this is off topic...


expected surge on the westend near San luis Pass? I saw 12ft....does that 12 ft include wave heights?

The waves would be on top of the storm surge.

thanks TX....well my parents house is toast then....they live in Sea Isle......on stilts but about 18ft above ground....built in 2005......I hope it makes it......there whole lives is in that house.....they are staying with me in Pearland....

[WxGuy1]

A large area of >95 kt FL winds in the NE quad, with a max of 108 kt (that I saw at least) at flight-level, and 84 kts at the sfc (measured by SFMR). The strongest FL winds are 60-80 miles from the center of Ike.