ATL: IKE Discussion

[physicx07]

000
URNT12 KNHC 120621
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/05:46:20Z
B. 26 deg 23 min N
091 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2729 m
D. 71 kt
E. 135 deg 41 nm
F. 221 deg 090 kt
G. 134 deg 051 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 10 C/ 3052 m
J. 15 C/ 3051 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 06:07:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND SFC WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 06:08:00 Z

Pressure up, FL winds up. At least there is an ob to support the current SFC winds.

No eye?

[AZRainman]

Forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles are warning that storm surge with Hurricane Ike could be more than 20 feet above sea level by noon Friday, causing the seawall in Port Arthur to be overtopped by about 6 feet. source

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...4 TO 7 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET. source

Ike's Storm Surge Closes Florida Panhandle Highway

Texas holdouts urge Hurricane Ike to "bring it on!"

[Nexus]

Ike's chaotic octopus center is really showing some convection now. He's still tossing off potential CDO reinforcement as feeder bands though, almost like he has to due to his gigantic size (06:09z):

[Rod Hagen]

Looks like its correcting back to the NW.

Looks on track right now.

The 11/ 2100Z 11th Sept forecast (which gave a landfall SW of Galveston) had the anticipated location at 12/0600Z at 26.6N 90.9W

The location at 12/0600Z is given as 26.4N 91.1 W

(Edit - whoops - scrub the earlier times mentioned - misread the data!)

It is .2ºW and .2ºS of the earlier predicted location at this time, so still tracking a bit SW of forecast

[Shoshana]

If Ike comes in south and a little faster will that mean he might get further west inland before turning north?

[Brent]

Eclipse over

[Rod Hagen]

If Ike comes in south and a little faster will that mean he might get further west inland before turning north?

Who knows, Shoshana! Yesterday Ike was northeast of the forecast lines (leading them to eventually shift the landfall prediction further north east) for much of the time.

For the last 12 hours its been south west of it . Still time for changes.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

the other buoys are still high compared to this one, I wonder where the edge of the high pressue is?

[Shoshana]

If Ike comes in south and a little faster will that mean he might get further west inland before turning north?

Who knows, Shoshana! Yesterday Ike was northeast of the forecast lines (leading them to eventually shift the landfall prediction further north east) for much of the time.

For the last 12 hours its been south west of it . Still time for changes.

True

[AZRainman]

[lrak]

I'm still freaking on the westward motion.

[serenata09]

I'm still freaking on the westward motion.

Link to the radar you are looking at Irak?

[Hurricane Cheese]

A monster no doubt, but Rita and Katrina still rule the GOM roost. This could definitely be one of the worst Cat 2's I can remember though.

[Sonica]

It's showing it on all the satellites now. Huge explosion on the south side of the storm.

It's exploding! It will be at least a 3 IMO!

[Brent]

There's more convection but it still looks disorganized to me. I don't forsee any significant strengthening in the short-term.

Edit: Recon reports pressure down a little to 955 mb and a new partial eyewall with a 20-mile wide eye trying to form.

[superfly]

It's exploding! It will be at least a 3 IMO!

It's not "exploding." It's a mess right now with the western side of the storm completely missing on microwave. The middle "CDO" is what's left of the inner eyewall and there is a clear moat between that area and the dominant outer eyewall.

[Sonica]

It's exploding! It will be at least a 3 IMO!

It's not "exploding." It's a mess right now with the western side of the storm completely missing on microwave. The middle "CDO" is what's left of the inner eyewall and there is a clear moat between that area and the dominant outer eyewall.

Yeah, sorry but it's true!

[bob rulz]

This might just be the most stubborn storm we've ever tracked.

It's really agonizing tracking this thing. We've been thinking that it was going to strengthen for days now. I couldn't imagine what it's like for you people in Texas that are right in the path of this thing.

[bob rulz]

Does this thing actually have a closed inner eyewall or is the new outer eyewall already starting to take over?

[physicx07]

There's more convection but it still looks disorganized to me. I don't forsee any significant strengthening in the short-term.

Edit: Recon reports pressure down a little to 955 mb and a new partial eyewall with a 20-mile wide eye trying to form.

Yep, and a 93kt dropsonde surface wind.