ATL: IKE Discussion

[bob rulz]

There's more convection but it still looks disorganized to me. I don't forsee any significant strengthening in the short-term.

Edit: Recon reports pressure down a little to 955 mb and a new partial eyewall with a 20-mile wide eye trying to form.

Yep, and a 93kt dropsonde surface wind.

Wind speed increase finally coming at 3am?

[AZRainman]

Ike's bands stretch from Mexico to Florida, whereas Katrina was the half size.

60mph semi-truck verses 120mph sports car...which causes more damage?

[Bunkertor]

Reorganization anyone ? What do you guys think ?

[bob rulz]

Reorganization anyone ? What do you guys think ?

Seems that it may finally be strengthening but it's going to be a steady strengthening. Still looks pretty ragged.

[AZRainman]

Reorganization anyone ? What do you guys think ?

Center looks like crap, but seems to be spreading: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Just got back in from a party, I see the center is tracking well South of NHC. Ike looking stronger, still unorganized but stronger.

[Houstonia]

This might just be the most stubborn storm we've ever tracked.

It's really agonizing tracking this thing. We've been thinking that it was going to strengthen for days now. I couldn't imagine what it's like for you people in Texas that are right in the path of this thing.

We in Texas are thinknig, "hmm... I really wish this was all over and done with already..., hmm... do I have enough time to go to the store in the morning? hmm... should I have boarded up my windows? hmm... it's still clear out - is there REALLY a storm a few hundred miles out to my southeast? hmmm... why are my animals acting so bizarre...? hmm..."

We kind of understand how those poor people in 1900 wound up walking on the beach mere hours before the storm rolled in...

[Rod Hagen]

Given its size tropical storm force winds are going to arrive on the coast long before the centre does. Any estimates for when they are likely to reach the Galveston area? Or the surge timing?

[bob rulz]

Can't wait to see this thing on visible in the morning. It's so freakin' huge!

And since it's only a day away from landfall and it's not 9/11, maybe they can put aside Sarah Palin for 10 minutes and actually report on this story. Of course I'm talking about national news here; I'm sure it's much different for the local news outlets along the Gulf Coast.

Gonna stay up for the 5am advisory.

[physicx07]

Dropsonde messages recent trend look like they've been higher and higher windspeeds aloft, though different drops are in different locations.

The one at 0608Z had 132 knots at the 923 mb level (about 2000 ft up) at a location where surface pressure was 984mb: 27.1N, 90.3W. The earlier ones were increasing up to this point, though the drops are in different parts of the storm. But this one was the highest, and none since have been higher. Surface wind was also 92kts on this one.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... mission=30

p.s. using standard reduction of .75 from 925mb would yield 99kts at sfc.

[Rod Hagen]

Reorganization anyone ? What do you guys think ?

Center looks like crap, but seems to be spreading: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.gif

THose shots are from a few hours back now by the look, Rainman. Its been changing pretty dramatically since then. (the centre still looks like crap, but nastier)

[HouTXmetro]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

Per NWS radar, outerband pushing though almost North Central Louisiana.... wow

[alicia83]

The center does look like crap, and I'd guess it's going to sluff off that big chunk on it's right.

Looks like that ridge is weakening pretty good now too.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_us.html

[Rod Hagen]

Have a look at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html (turn on lat/long and Trop Pts

There is an awful lot of red in the core there now (the loop covers both before and after the satellite eclipse, so it gives a good idea of how things have changed) Still seems to be heading south of the forecast track, but the core is so huge who can tell from the IR! Looks to me as if the centre of the "splodge" will be well south of the 12/12 UTC forecast point though.

Rod
(Note - I'm a complete amateur who usually only looks at Northern Australian cyclones so treat whatever I say accordingly!)

[physicx07]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes

Per NWS radar, outerband pushing though almost North Central Louisiana.... wow

Looks like S Central LA to me. I bet winds are pretty strong with that rainband. I checked obs locally but it's not hitting any sensors at this time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...
SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT

* AT 320 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WHITEHALL...OR 12 MILES EAST OF GONZALES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 54
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GONZALES BY 330 AM CDT...
PRAIRIEVILLE BY 335 AM CDT...

...........................................................................................................

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 302 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR POINTE A LA
HACHE...OR NEAR PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 59 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYRTLE GROVE BY 315 AM CDT...


....

Edit to add both warnings...

[Sonica]

Tornado Warning at my house now!

p.s..Will be here in 5 min. If close.

[Bunkertor]

That thing is a freak.

Much fun for the Cowboys on Monday vs. Philly

[AZRainman]

[Pebbles]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes

Per NWS radar, outerband pushing though almost North Central Louisiana.... wow

The size of this thing is amazing. I just pulled up the weather for our area for this weekend for plan making. Seems you gulf peeple are sharing your storms with me again. Though we aren't going to be dealing with the wind/surge the poor folks of TX do *comforts*.. looks like we will be getting over 2 days of heavy rains because of Ike. Really amazing how broad of a swatch of this country will be effected in one form or another.

Here's only a snip from the Chicago NWS discussing Ike (they actually wrote quite a bit about Ike).

BY SAT NGT-SUNDAY MRNG...SHRT WAVE IS FCST PHASE WITH
REMNANTS OF IKE AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PROLIFIC RAINFALL...MAINLY
OVR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF FA BASED ON CURRENT GFS.