ATL: IKE Discussion

[keithy joe]

Garden Banks 426 has measured 71 - 81mph sustained in the last hour, winds have increased to 38mph around New Orleans International with gusts to 50mph

[physicx07]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes

Per NWS radar, outerband pushing though almost North Central Louisiana.... wow

The size of this thing is amazing. I just pulled up the weather for our area for this weekend for plan making. Seems you gulf peeple are sharing your storms with me again. Though we aren't going to be dealing with the wind/surge the poor folks of TX do *comforts*.. looks like we will be getting over 2 days of heavy rains because of Ike. Really amazing how broad of a swatch of this country will be effected in one form or another.

Here's only a snip from the Chicago NWS discussing Ike (they actually wrote quite a bit about Ike).

BY SAT NGT-SUNDAY MRNG...SHRT WAVE IS FCST PHASE WITH
REMNANTS OF IKE AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PROLIFIC RAINFALL...MAINLY
OVR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF FA BASED ON CURRENT GFS.

In the 00Z GFDL it looked like this thing will get quite strong as it phases with the cold core system. Pressure contour of 976mb as it races into S. Canada!

[AZRainman]

THose shots are from a few hours back now by the look, Rainman. Its been changing pretty dramatically since then. (the centre still looks like crap, but nastier)

Hmm, they should of been updating it. ...yeah, the current spread is considerably more than in that animation
Here's another: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

[xironman]

Well there is an extrap down to 950.7 mb, maybe it is ready to go, but I thought that yesterday as well. Frustrating storm. Biggest difference today is the west side is no longer constrained, amazing to see difference in water vapor before and after eclipse.

Edit: Dropsonde had 953 with 13 knot wind, maybe it is ready to go.

[HurryKane]

I didn't see it posted (looked a few pages back) but Houston has decided to tell residents to stay put: http://tinyurl.com/4aumgf

Houston decides to stare down Ike instead of leave

By MICHAEL GRACZYK, Associated Press Writer 16 minutes ago

As a gigantic Hurricane Ike steamed through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, officials in America's fourth-largest city made a bold decision: Instead of fleeing, residents here would stare down the storm.

Homeowners should board up windows, clear the decks of furniture and stock up on drinking water and non-perishable food. But whatever they do, officials warned, residents should not flock to the roadways en masse, creating the same kind of gridlock that cost lives — and a little political capital — when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston in 2005.

"It will be, in candor, something that people will be scared of," Houston Mayor Bill White warned. "A number of people in this community have not experienced the magnitude of these winds."

The decision is a stark contrast to how emergency management officials responded to Hurricane Rita in 2005. As the storm closed in three years ago, the region implemented its plan: Evacuate the 2 million people in the coastal communities first, past the metropolis of Houston; once they were out of harm's way, Houston would follow in an orderly fashion.

But three days before landfall, Rita bloomed into a Category 5 and tracked toward the city. City and Harris County officials told Houstonians to hit the road, even while the population of Galveston Island was still clogging the freeways. It was a decision that proved tragic: 110 people died during the effort, making the evacuation more deadly than the eventual Category 4 storm, which killed nine.

With the lessons of that disaster, public officials were left with a vexing choice this time. Because Ike's path wasn't clear until just about 48 hours before the storm, officials didn't have a lot of time to make evacuation calls.

"Almost all of them are in a pretty tough spot," said Michael Lindell, a Texas A&M University urban planner and emergency management expert. "The problem is elected officials were not elected to be hurricane experts.

"It's staring into the barrel of a gun. It's a very challenging problem for them and there isn't any easy answer."

Ike was forecast to make landfall early Saturday southwest of Galveston, a barrier island and beach town about 50 miles southeast of downtown Houston and scene of the nation's deadliest hurricane, the great storm of 1900 that left at least 6,000 dead.

Though Houston didn't evacuate, low-lying communities predicted to be the bullseye of the storm did. People on the island were ordered evacuated Thursday, joining residents of at least nine zip codes in flood-prone areas of Harris County, in which Houston is located, along with hundreds of thousands of fellow Texans in counties up and down the coastline.

[keithy joe]

I didn't see it posted (looked a few pages back) but Houston has decided to tell residents to stay put: http://tinyurl.com/4aumgf

Houston decides to stare down Ike instead of leave

By MICHAEL GRACZYK, Associated Press Writer 16 minutes ago

As a gigantic Hurricane Ike steamed through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, officials in America's fourth-largest city made a bold decision: Instead of fleeing, residents here would stare down the storm.

Homeowners should board up windows, clear the decks of furniture and stock up on drinking water and non-perishable food. But whatever they do, officials warned, residents should not flock to the roadways en masse, creating the same kind of gridlock that cost lives — and a little political capital — when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston in 2005.

"It will be, in candor, something that people will be scared of," Houston Mayor Bill White warned. "A number of people in this community have not experienced the magnitude of these winds."

The decision is a stark contrast to how emergency management officials responded to Hurricane Rita in 2005. As the storm closed in three years ago, the region implemented its plan: Evacuate the 2 million people in the coastal communities first, past the metropolis of Houston; once they were out of harm's way, Houston would follow in an orderly fashion.

But three days before landfall, Rita bloomed into a Category 5 and tracked toward the city. City and Harris County officials told Houstonians to hit the road, even while the population of Galveston Island was still clogging the freeways. It was a decision that proved tragic: 110 people died during the effort, making the evacuation more deadly than the eventual Category 4 storm, which killed nine.

With the lessons of that disaster, public officials were left with a vexing choice this time. Because Ike's path wasn't clear until just about 48 hours before the storm, officials didn't have a lot of time to make evacuation calls.

"Almost all of them are in a pretty tough spot," said Michael Lindell, a Texas A&M University urban planner and emergency management expert. "The problem is elected officials were not elected to be hurricane experts.

"It's staring into the barrel of a gun. It's a very challenging problem for them and there isn't any easy answer."

Ike was forecast to make landfall early Saturday southwest of Galveston, a barrier island and beach town about 50 miles southeast of downtown Houston and scene of the nation's deadliest hurricane, the great storm of 1900 that left at least 6,000 dead.

Though Houston didn't evacuate, low-lying communities predicted to be the bullseye of the storm did. People on the island were ordered evacuated Thursday, joining residents of at least nine zip codes in flood-prone areas of Harris County, in which Houston is located, along with hundreds of thousands of fellow Texans in counties up and down the coastline.

Residents better be prepared to be put on Tornado warnings because Houston and areas immediately to the N and E of Houston will be at risk of tornadoes in these zones, as well as the additional risk of storm surge and hurricane force winds.

[bob rulz]

Not sure that ordering them to stay put is a good thing. Then again, telling them all to leave isn't either.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Back to a major at landfall on 4 am product. It doesn't have too far to go to become a major, I suppose.

[HouTXmetro]

Can't provide a link yet but 4am is out

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

[Brent]

This is a nightmare track.

[Pebbles]

In the 00Z GFDL it looked like this thing will get quite strong as it phases with the cold core system. Pressure contour of 976mb as it races into S. Canada!

*snorts* just looked a little closer at that model. Has the center right over my county (I'm in Will not Cook)

BTW.. recon reporting quite a pressure drop *whistles* Wish I had something truely constructive to add but afraid to say anything because this storm like nothing I've ever tracked before.

[Rod Hagen]

I didn't see it posted (looked a few pages back) but Houston has decided to tell residents to stay put: http://tinyurl.com/4aumgf

Maybe , given the apparent "trial and error" approach, Houston should open its mind to sending a fact finding mission to somewhere that clearly really knows how to do these things well, and has done for a long time. Like Cuba!

Cheers

Rod

[Ed Mahmoud]

Outside the surge zone, for people not living near bayous and streams that would flood, or in mobile homes, the official Harris County policy is to "hunker down", to keep highways open for coastal evacuees.


Joe Bastardi mused a few days ago on what a hurricane would do in the densely forested Woodlands, where he has family. (A sister, I think) They left most of the original pines in place when they built the homes. Looks beautiful, and the trees enhance privacy as well, like natural fences, but I suspect some homes will have encounters with the big pines.

[physicx07]

This is a disaster. These people should've been doing more yesterday morning. The mayor of Galveston was flippant Wednesday, and was described as reluctant to give the evacuation order Thursday.

Unbelievable.

I know. I think there was a lot of confusion by the fact that it's a cat 2. Now it seems too late. I sure hope those people who decided to stick it out at least go a little inland somewhere safer. That blows my mind how flippant those people interviewed in the news story were. Totally clueless IMHO.

[Rod Hagen]

This is a nightmare track.

Seems to me that they have been pretty generous on the north side with the present location, and the track requires a fairly sudden turn to the right. Caused by that little ridge of high pressure perhaps?

My completely and utterly amateur view based on the systematic difference between prediction and forecast over the last 16 hours, is that it will continue to track south of their forecast.

[superfly]

It's simply not feasible to evacuate Houston. They tried during Rita and it was a complete failure. I believe it was the right approach this time, evacuate the surge-prone areas only.

[alicia83]

Well that's a joke, half of Houston floods with a 2" rain. Ok, well not half, but Houston residents will know what I'm talking about.

[AZRainman]

[southmdwatcher]

The strongest winds are in the northern semi-circle. Ike can pass 50-70 miles south of Houston and still rake the area with 80-100 mph winds.

[keithy joe]

Higher tornado risk in IKE than Gustav especially for areas in the following poly:

Matagorda Bay to Bryan to Huntsville to Woodville to Alexandria down to New Orleans- This poly generated area is likely to be at highest risk of tornadoes as an additional threat. Houston areas with surrounding areas 15 miles or so N, NE and E are at highest risk generally towards Orange on the border of TX to LA.