ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

HWRF: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008082700-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

892 mb south of Louisiana.

GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082700-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

904 mb and destroyed the Cayman Islands.

Are there any other models besides those 2 showing a Cat 4 or 5?

[Wx_Warrior]

Not to my knowledge but someone who has seen everything may post.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, the GFDL and HWRF are on crack tonight. Note the initialization, a bit too strong. GFDL is the funniest creature, it shows a 117kt hurricane south of Cuba. That's impossible, b/c 1) Gustav no longer rly has an inner core and must take time to rebuild it, and 2) there's bound to be some downsloping off the Cuban mountains on the wrn semicircle which will slow the rebuilding of an inner core. The HWRF's handling of Gustav is much more realistic in the short term, with significant intensification not occurring until after the Caymans. But then the HWRF goes downhill and shows a hurricane that would break records for GOM pressure... no comment there necessary. ERC's alone would preclude that from occurring.

[Wx_Warrior]

The track may be good but the intensity isn't...i need to try to keep up who says which model is the best...i do recall most on the gfdl bandwagon (not anyone specifically here now).

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO was Corpus yesterday and now Tx/La border....trend is now east on it...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082700!!/

[HouTXmetro]

EURO was Corpus yesterday and now Tx/La border....trend is now east on it...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082700!!/

I'd expect further shifts east. I think it's zoning in on NOLA region.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed...(with an aggie of all people)..

[Stratosphere747]

EURO hasn't really trended that much further E. It had a crazy hook back towards Brownsville. Otherwise it would have probably been into the middle Texas coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

yea well hook or not...middle tx coast now closer to la....just have the feeling in the pit of my gut about Louisiana.

[HouTXmetro]

Agreed...(with an aggie of all people)..

LOL, GIG EM... I hope a track gets nailed down so I can catch up on sleep.

[WxGuy1]

Very few times has a 108-132+ hr forecast verified within 50-100 miles. Sure, it happens (the NHC forecast for Katrina was nearly spot-on a couple of days in advance), but it's much more common to see 100-200-250 mile errors at that forecast range. It does lend some credence to the general forecast to see several models showing a similar forecast, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I recall one tropical cyclone last year (or 2006) that was forecast by the GFDL to be a Cat 4 that moved from northern FL to New Orleans. Lo and behold, the storm never crossed FL. At any rate, lets not get too antsy yet. The track of the storm will be significantly affected by the storm intensity, and the intensity forecast is particularly difficult right now given the relative disorganization of Gustav at this time.

I'm not saying the forecast won't verify; I'm just saying that it's not worth the effort or anxiety to mull over a >100 hour forecast (one that assumes a Cat 4-5 storm 2-4 days in advance)! Or do we forget how terrible some models can be?

[Wx_Warrior]

No anxiety here....I'll leave when they tell me too. Nothing a person can do about a storm except follow orders but you are very right.!

[Cyclenall]

But then the HWRF goes downhill and shows a hurricane that would break records for GOM pressure... no comment there necessary. ERC's alone would preclude that from occurring.

This makes no sense. The record intensity happens before an ERC usually.

[Stratosphere747]

A bit of a shift back to the E.

[KWT]

The higher resolution models are pretty amazing to witness, slams Cuba as a very powerful hurricane, not before it gets into the top 10 strongest canes ever of course...gets down to 904mbs which would be crazy!

[Nimbus]

The 5am NHC forecast said Gustav is hugging the southern coast of Haiti. The models might be initializing a little too far north but nit picking aside the big picture has not changed much.

Ridge will steer Gustav W/WNW for a few days, at least long enough to steer him into the gulf.

The model consensus on his track seems to be settling a little, although I still could not say for sure which direction the winds will be from when the center passes the mid gulf buoy.

I'm losing hope that Gustav will take a track that won't kill a lot of people.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I still have a hard time buying into the track. Look here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html

When do we see a front/trough not affect the path of a strong storm? NEVER

I wonder if the models are getting that data fed into them.

Also, any stall in time will allow that trough to dip further into the gulf. It will also allow that ridge to break down a bit or develop a weakness.

I think that is what the VIPIR model is also seeing.

I'm seeing a delay in this affecting the US gulf coast...at least an extra day to landfall than currently predicted. It is getting hung up near Haiti and will continue to stall north of Jamaica as it fights the ridging to its north and finds it hard to catch the steering currents.

The 2 possible scenarios that I laid out yesterday (& night before) are looking more and more like the easterly one...more of a big bend storm I think. I know I'm probably out in right field on that guess and bucking all the models...but from what I see, it is a good possibility.

[KWT]

Note that front is also embedded into a high pressure cell as well which is guiding the system WNW/NW, there is nothing to go against that reasoning for now but everywhere in the gulf does need to watch as the models will still shift about somewhat.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I also think that the modeling for 95L can provide us insight on Gustav, even though it appears that Gustav is sent into NOLA on the latest Euro when initializing 95L. Those 95L model runs are starting to buy into the idea that the big ridge over Florida is gone, allowing 95L to just go right into eastern Florida. Euro shows it as quite a powerful storm actually.

The point is...how can 95L do that if such a strong ridge is in place? That argues for either a shift in the ridge or a disintegration. -which plays heavily into what Gustav can/will actually do.

What appears to be a "simple straight forward forecast", with all the models in agreement, is actually developing into a pretty complex set of scenarios. Thursday night midnight will probably be a telling time. I wonder when the recon for upper air data will occur near the end of the week. That will be critical input for the models.

[stormchazer]

I know everyone is nervous with a potentially strong storm in the GoM but we have all said hundreds of times that the models are terrible on intensity forecast. Let's wait to see what kind of system we have North of Cuba then we can all go on Xanax.

Maybe it is hope on my part as my sister lives in Gulfport, MS, but the models are sliding around right now with a high error potential, so lets not get caught up in doomsday scenarios for NO or Galveston for that matter. Let's settle down and see how things develop.