ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[eastcoastFL]

anyone else notice each band blows up over the lake and then settles down?

[eastcoastFL]

heavy squall coming through port st lucie right now. very gusty and rainy

I'm surprised you guys still have power after the pictures i just looked through. I hope you stay safe.

Well the wind hasnt been too bad but most of the city is under water tonight.

[KWT]

I was only talking about the winds, not about the rains, because lets be honest the NHC hardly expected this to actually strengthen over land, I wasn't having a go but stating the truth that the NHC expected it to be weaker, not stronger then it was at landfall, rare for a system to do this overland!

how this responds when its back over water is going to be very interesting indeed!

[TCmet]

Does Fay's contribution to the ACE index count over land?

Yes, calculated at 6-hourly increments, as long as it is TS strength or greater.

[cycloneye]

Does Fay's contribution to the ACE index count over land?

Yes, calculated at 6-hourly increments, as long as it is TS strength or greater.

You can see the stats of the ACE at the thread in the Talkin Tropics forum.

[FlSteel]

Well, well, well. Did not expect this. I have been lurking for a few years now. No real threats up my way. Took a brushing with Tammy back in 05, but other than that, we have been just spectators up here in J-ville. Seems like Fay may give us front row seats. I have been watching this storm since it first became 92L. I have reservations on the beach in Tampa this weekend for a getaway with the family. Now it seems like I may be preparing for a Cat 1 hurricane. How things in the tropics can change. Spent today clearing the yard of any missle hazards. Now it seems like I may need to board up. My prayers go out to all those that have already dealt with fay, and more prayers to those that have yet to meet her. Good luck to all for the rest of the season.

P.S. Fair Winds and Following Seas to all of you.

[jaxfladude]

Well, well, well. Did not expect this. I have been lurking for a few years now. No real threats up my way. Took a brushing with Tammy back in 05, but other than that, we have been just spectators up here in J-ville. Seems like Fay may give us front row seats. I have been watching this storm since it first became 92L. I have reservations on the beach in Tampa this weekend for a getaway with the family. Now it seems like I may be preparing for a Cat 1 hurricane. How things in the tropics can change. Spent today clearing the yard of any missle hazards. Now it seems like I may need to board up. My prayers go out to all those that have already dealt with fay, and more prayers to those that have yet to meet her. Good luck to all for the rest of the season.

P.S. Fair Winds and Following Seas to all of you.

Hello fellow Jax, Fla resident!!!
So where are you? I'm in 32225!
So will Fay's worst be for the First Coast???
Need some of your info and thoughts use the disclaimer for personal forecast of course...
Local TV Mets now going into min Cat 1 hurricane mode..for now and with the knowledge that Fay has never been a a Min. Cat 1 hurricane she as forecast to do several times already.......Fay will be what she wants to be.....

[KWT]

Well its going to get into waters that whilst aren't warm will probably support even cat-2's pretty readily as long as they don't stick around for too long, also the upper dynamics really are very good, hence why this is still holding an eye despite being way overland.

[FlSteel]

Hey Jaxfldue, been since 64 since J-ville has seen a hurricane up close and personal. How do you think this area will fare. We did not do so well with Frances and Jean and those were only tropical strom force winds. I'm thinking things could be ugly up here with 70+ mph sustained winds. Lots of trees down.

[NFLnut]

All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.

The track has it going to the gulf more though. So what are you trying to say? You are really not helping your case.

You're not completely reading and/or understanding my posts.

BAMM and BAMS a couple of days ago (and what I was referring to) had FAY missing Florida COMPLETELY and going straight up the west, Gulf coast of Florida (about 60-80 miles offshore) and heading straight to Mobile/Gulf Shores.

What YOU'RE looking at is some models showing FAY making an extreme left hook and emerging into the Gulf.

Two ENTIRELY different scenarios, and BOTH are erroneous in my opinion!

Ok now you make sense... Yes that did happen but at the same time all the models were wrong at that time in some way. Some had it going straight going all the way to Canada, some had it not hitting Florida. Yes GFDL was in the majority group but who cares it was still wrong.

But they ALL had FAY going north at that time. Still, the GFDL and the more reliable models had FAY going north THROUGH Florida. So they were "less wrong" than the BAMM and BAMS which now show the crazy 90-degree turn through central Florida and back into the Gulf.

Not saying that absolutely can't happen because we all remember Jeanne doing the unbelievable loop-de-loop back into Florida. Still, the BAMM and BAMS are a little hard to believe.

[ronjon]

Well its going to get into waters that whilst aren't warm will probably support even cat-2's pretty readily as long as they don't stick around for too long, also the upper dynamics really are very good, hence why this is still holding an eye despite being way overland.

I dunno KWT. I know she's forecasted to but if Fay doesn't seriously start tracking more NE, she's never gonna make it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=1&delay=15&noclutter=1&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&ID=TBW&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom

[jinftl]

true, there was an increase in sustained winds from 60mph to 65mph...but not sure any reporting stations even had sustained winds of either of those 2 values....and i can't imagine anyone saying that the NHC 'underwarned' any area in florida. some folks in tampa would probably say the opposite...but even what took place in Port St. Lucie is simple = the tropical storm warning proved warranted.

this is not going to be remembered so far as a wind event...except for one kite sailer on fort lauderdale beach...and a t.s moving at the speed Fay was is going to dump alot of rain in a short amount of time....but in the 11pm advisory on sunday, the NHC said 4-8 inches of rain with some reports of 10 inches are possible in florida keys and peninsula.

not to downplay what 60mph winds or 10" of rain can do....esp in highly population density areas

I was only talking about the winds, not about the rains, because lets be honest the NHC hardly expected this to actually strengthen over land, I wasn't having a go but stating the truth that the NHC expected it to be weaker, not stronger then it was at landfall, rare for a system to do this overland!

how this responds when its back over water is going to be very interesting indeed!

[CrazyC83]

It's storms like Fay that people brush off that cause the most trouble. This could end up costing Florida billions.

Best example was probably the "No Name Storm" (Leslie) in 2000, that did like $1.2 billion damage before it even got named (as an invest)...

[paintplaye]

All of them had it going to Canada or NE. But the BAMM and the BAMS had FAY headed straight to Gulf Shores. They were both the far LEFT outliers. At least the GFDL was a little closer to the eventual track, and it adjusted correctly, faster than either of those two.

The track has it going to the gulf more though. So what are you trying to say? You are really not helping your case.

You're not completely reading and/or understanding my posts.

BAMM and BAMS a couple of days ago (and what I was referring to) had FAY missing Florida COMPLETELY and going straight up the west, Gulf coast of Florida (about 60-80 miles offshore) and heading straight to Mobile/Gulf Shores.

What YOU'RE looking at is some models showing FAY making an extreme left hook and emerging into the Gulf.

Two ENTIRELY different scenarios, and BOTH are erroneous in my opinion!

Ok now you make sense... Yes that did happen but at the same time all the models were wrong at that time in some way. Some had it going straight going all the way to Canada, some had it not hitting Florida. Yes GFDL was in the majority group but who cares it was still wrong.

But they ALL had FAY going north at that time. Still, the GFDL and the more reliable models had FAY going north THROUGH Florida. So they were "less wrong" than the BAMM and BAMS which now show the crazy 90-degree turn through central Florida and back into the Gulf.

Not saying that absolutely can't happen because we all remember Jeanne doing the unbelievable loop-de-loop back into Florida. Still, the BAMM and BAMS are a little hard to believe.[/quote]


Yes I know but I think they picked up on the ridge building back or the trough not being that strong. I personally believe a lot of the models did not have a good grasp on the system. I think the biggest key on what it will do is how long it takes to get to Atlantic and then how fast it moves from there. The slower it takes the better the ridge will be.

[fci]

Well, well, well. Did not expect this. I have been lurking for a few years now. No real threats up my way. Took a brushing with Tammy back in 05, but other than that, we have been just spectators up here in J-ville. Seems like Fay may give us front row seats. I have been watching this storm since it first became 92L. I have reservations on the beach in Tampa this weekend for a getaway with the family. Now it seems like I may be preparing for a Cat 1 hurricane. How things in the tropics can change. Spent today clearing the yard of any missle hazards. Now it seems like I may need to board up. My prayers go out to all those that have already dealt with fay, and more prayers to those that have yet to meet her. Good luck to all for the rest of the season.

P.S. Fair Winds and Following Seas to all of you.

Hello fellow Jax, Fla resident!!!

So will Fay's worst be for the First Coast???
Need some of your info and thoughts use the disclaimer for personal forecast of course...
Local TV Mets now going into min Cat 1 hurricane mode..for now and with the knowledge that Fay has never been a a Min. Cat 1 hurricane she as forecast to do several times already.......Fay will be what she wants to be.....

Be careful watching the Local Mets!
Miami had a genius last night who reported a pressure from recon of 977 mb and then apparently never came back and corrected the error. A drop of 21 mb from recon that was not yet there!!
So, listen to the NHC and especially the Pro Mets here at S2K.
They will guide you the best.
Better than most of the "readers" who pretend to be Pro Mets on TV Local News.

Good luck up there with Fay, she will drive you crazy

[gtsmith]

one more video shot this afternoon...posted in the OBS thread too (don't hate me)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJf0GG-UZHw

[deltadog03]

On the high res vis..the center is approaching SW indian river county.. She is still moving a decent pace. Remember the Radar beam is about 3800-4000kt above the SFC...She looks to be tilted a bit from NE to SW.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

On the high res vis..the center is approaching SW indian river county.. She is still moving a decent pace. Remember the Radar beam is about 3800-4000kt above the SFC...She looks to be tilted a bit from NE to SW.

So exactly which direction is it moving? Feels like it's not moving anywhere very fast at all!

~Beth~

[Just Joshing You]

I said earlier I'll eat a crow pie of it maintains its strength and keeps its eye feature until it hits the Atlantic.

Anyone know a good recipe?

[carversteve]

I said earlier I'll eat a crow pie of it maintains its strength and keeps its eye feature until it hits the Atlantic.

Anyone know a good recipe?

Gotta love s2k.... ....anyone have the latest satellite view.Or radar?