ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10501 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:47 pm

jabber wrote:Right... I will take 40 to 50 over 100+ like we had with Wilma... the 300 roof tiles I lost did not like that.

Does the 100+ mph estimate explicitly refer to gusts or sustained winds? We had gusts near 100 mph during Wilma, but my personal observations didn't suggest sustained winds higher than 75-80 mph at my residence.

Anyway, I concur that low end/moderate TS conditions are quite minor, but strong TS/hurricane conditions are another issue.

Keep in mind that many trees in the Jacksonville area haven't been "pruned" in many decades, so the "flying debris potential" could be dangerous.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
MHurricanes
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Age: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:05 pm
Location: Altamonte Springs, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10502 Postby MHurricanes » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:48 pm

A CAT 1 hurricane (Charlie) destroyed all of the trees and created havoc in our neighborhood. I'm talking about a minimal hurricane in Altamonte Springs, Fla.

- CAT5 Cane (Miami Hurricanes fan)
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34042
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10503 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:50 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
jabber wrote:Right... I will take 40 to 50 over 100+ like we had with Wilma... the 300 roof tiles I lost did not like that.

Does the 100+ mph estimate explicitly refer to gusts or sustained winds? We had gusts near 100 mph during Wilma, but my personal observations didn't suggest sustained winds higher than 75-80 mph at my residence.

Anyway, I concur that low end/moderate TS conditions are quite minor, but strong TS/hurricane conditions are another issue.

Keep in mind that many trees in the Jacksonville area haven't been "pruned" in many decades, so the "flying debris potential" could be dangerous.


Jacksonville hasn't had hurricane conditions since 1964 I believe.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10504 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:51 pm

Agreed Ronjon no reason why this won't be a hurricane pretty quickly after it comes off Florida, upper conditions are favorable enough as Fay's proved overland!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10505 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:52 pm

BIG increase in wind over Palm Beach County over the past hour.

I'm seeing sustained winds of 35mph with higher gusts probably up to 50mph....small lake behind my house has white caps on it which is unheard of......

Coconut palms are blowing fiercely. These winds are not part of a squal as they have been lasting for quite sometime. I believe Palm Beach County is in the Tropical Storm windfield of Fay :eek:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34042
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#10506 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:53 pm

Are there any chasers out there? The eye is getting ready to cross Florida's Turnpike near Osowaw Junction.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10507 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:54 pm

We must watch the motion of this system over the next 24 hours. If it gets to much more north then the models will start shifting into agreement with the nhc that says it won't get into the gulf. But if it moves more eastward or no more .3 or maybe .5 of a degree farther north as it is over off, then I feel it will be a threat towards the gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10508 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Melborne is the check point, if it moves north of that then you can forget it ever getting back into the gulf of Mexico. If it goes south of that then we have to watch it carefully.

Below Melborne
1# If it slows down and moves out over the ocean in 24 hours, it won't strengthen and won't have a lot of time to do so, but that would be the highest chance of a track into the gulf.

2# Faster movement out into the ocean, possible stronger storm, but the chance it could get to far north.

This post is unoffical and made by a none pro, please see the nhc.



LOL...yeah because she's being doing everything textbook up until now huh? :roll:
0 likes   

Toyota Thundra
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 1:35 am
Location: Riverview FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10509 Postby Toyota Thundra » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:55 pm

LaunchGal wrote:OMG, when is this thing going to go away? 6 more hours... 6 more hours...

Raining horizontal now. Again.

Need a pulling-out-hair icon folks.



Image

A gift ;)



Back on topic.... :cheesy:
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#10510 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:55 pm

Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10511 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:56 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
jabber wrote:Right... I will take 40 to 50 over 100+ like we had with Wilma... the 300 roof tiles I lost did not like that.

Does the 100+ mph estimate explicitly refer to gusts or sustained winds? We had gusts near 100 mph during Wilma, but my personal observations didn't suggest sustained winds higher than 75-80 mph at my residence.

Anyway, I concur that low end/moderate TS conditions are quite minor, but strong TS/hurricane conditions are another issue.

Keep in mind that many trees in the Jacksonville area haven't been "pruned" in many decades, so the "flying debris potential" could be dangerous.

Hopefully, my comments weren't misconstrued as hype. I'm a vehement opponent of many uninformed views in the media...
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re:

#10512 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:57 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.



So much for wobble watching...We have all turned into drift watchers...

SFT
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10513 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:57 pm

Someone was asking about a model plot a while back. I worked up a plot of 18Z models. This time, I only took out the BAM models. All other models are in there, including many iterations of the GFDL, NOGAPS, GFS, and NAM. Pretty good agreement on not bringing Fay across Florida and into the Gulf. GFS is the only model doing that (in these plots). Question is, how far offshore does Fay get? How long is it over water?

Oh, and the timing of that NW turn varies from about 1pm tomorrow to 1am Thursday.

From what I've observed, the longer it's over water, the weaker it gets. ;-)

Image
Last edited by wxman57 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re:

#10514 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.


I think the nhc has this one pinned. I don't say this very often but great job by the nhc. They have kicked butt on this one.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Re:

#10515 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:59 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.



So much for wobble watching...We have all turned into drift watchers...

SFT


1hr movement, toward 031 deg. at 3.1 kts
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#10516 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:00 pm

This thing is stalled once again. I expect an eastward wobble now :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: Re:

#10517 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:00 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.



So much for wobble watching...We have all turned into drift watchers...

SFT


drift watchers?


Image

or drifters?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10518 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:01 pm

Yep it seems to be wobbling on a rough 25 motion at the moment, at times taking easterly wobbles then back to northerly wobbles.

Landfall still looks very close to Melbourne IMO. Also as long as it gets into the Atlantic for more then 12hrs this will likely be a hurricane.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10519 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:
jabber wrote:Right... I will take 40 to 50 over 100+ like we had with Wilma... the 300 roof tiles I lost did not like that.

Does the 100+ mph estimate explicitly refer to gusts or sustained winds? We had gusts near 100 mph during Wilma, but my personal observations didn't suggest sustained winds higher than 75-80 mph at my residence.

Anyway, I concur that low end/moderate TS conditions are quite minor, but strong TS/hurricane conditions are another issue.

Keep in mind that many trees in the Jacksonville area haven't been "pruned" in many decades, so the "flying debris potential" could be dangerous.


Jacksonville hasn't had hurricane conditions since 1964 I believe.



True, Hurricane Dora came ashore just north of St. Augustine and I think the Jax. beaches recorded hurricane winds but the city itself were mostly 60-70 estimated.
0 likes   

capepoint
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:13 pm
Location: Beaufort, NC

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Peninsula

#10520 Postby capepoint » Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:02 pm

tolakram wrote:I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.


40 to 50 mph winds are not a big deal. Here in coastal NC we get gusts of 40-50 somewhat regularly. Notheasters in fall and winter produce sustained winds in 30's and 40's with 50's gusts and higher, and thunderstorms in spring and summer bring 40 to 60 mph winds. Heck it seems like hardly a day goes by without gusts into the mid20's or higher.
The problem with high winds is how long they stay high. Thats what causes the damage. Something is weak and after holding in the wind for just so long it finally gives way. Thats why you have more damage from tropical/noreaster systems. they blow for a day or more.
Another point to consider is that areas that do regularly have higher winds get much less damage from them as areas that do not usually get them. The reason is simple, anything that is weak got blown down last week or last month or last year.
And while say 70 mph is forcasted, most likely the only place you would see anything close to that would be in a open area or on the beach with an on-shore flow. I have worked during many hurricanes that the news were touting as having hurricane force sustained winds that were suposedly ripping right over me, and never recorded a single gust over 50-60.
But....you never know when/if that reported wind might hit you, so you better be prepared just the same.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests