ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AdamFirst]

Radar looks like a SOUTH drift

[cpdaman]

Matt this wil lbe off the coast in about 9-12hrs time easily, current motion suggests just 8hrs or so but may slow down just a touch more.

The latest GFDL gives it a good 2 days over the waters in the Atlantic before finally making its landfall, plenty of time given its presentation to become a hurricane.

we have all assumed this would be a hurricane off the coast but how sure are the promets that upper level conditions would actually be favorable should this system get off the coast late tonite

[chris_fit]

We are getting clobbered in Melbourne, does not even seem like a TS, more like a Cat 1. Went to the Beach off Eau Gallie Causeway, could not stand straight due to wind, in addition to getting sandblasted. I would estimate sustained winds over 40+mph. Driving around tons of roads are under water... Don't know how much more rain we can take here.

Howdy neighbor. You guys have been hammered for longer than me today. Hang in there, it's almost over, and please stay safe.

Thanks you too... I don't think this will end soon though, it's been like this since 10am, and the center has not even come through yet, and it's forecast to slow down.

[SoupBone]

Radar looks like a SOUTH drift

She looks very stationary to me.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Matt this wil lbe off the coast in about 9-12hrs time easily, current motion suggests just 8hrs or so but may slow down just a touch more.

The latest GFDL gives it a good 2 days over the waters in the Atlantic before finally making its landfall, plenty of time given its presentation to become a hurricane.

we have all assumed this would be a hurricane off the coast but how sure are the promets that upper level conditions would actually be favorable should this system get off the coast late tonite

Good question. Right now it looks to me like it's either slowed to a crawl or stalled.

[Dean4Storms]

I see a wobble to the east, but not sure if that is a movement yet or just eye fluctuations on radar.

[tolakram]

Okeechobee City in some bands on the south side



Moving slowly east, stair stepping north, or the other way around.

[KWT]

we have all assumed this would be a hurricane off the coast but how sure are the promets that upper level conditions would actually be favorable should this system get off the coast late tonite

Lets just consider this strengthened overland, that should answer your question about whether conditions are favorable...

motion now seems down to about 3kts, pretty slow and would take a while yet for it to get off land if that stays, steering currents are getting very weak indeed now.

[RL3AO]

Really looks like a south than southeast wobble. It is probably an illusion though as the center is losing definition.

[Dean4Storms]

If she sits there or moves ENE you can throw out the GFDL and HWRF, they have her about 50 miles due east of Cape Canaveral in 24 hrs steadily moving there toward the NNE

Actually about 50-60 miles ENE of the Cape.

[txwatcher91]

Currently measuring a speed of 4kts to the ESE or maybe even SE right now on radar.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe it will take about 12 hours to move into the Atlantic. I think it will be near Melborne...Also I feel it will strengthen to a 75 knot hurricane as it is coming back at GA. The nhc track looks to be very good.

NOT OFFICAL PLEASE READ AND FOLLOW THE GOLDEN WORDS OF THE HURRICANE FORECASTERS AT THE NHC.

[tolakram]

Has the mid or upper level de-coupled? Water vapor shows the center racing off the the NE.

[Extratropical1]

Looks due north to me if you look where she was near Lake O a few hours ago

[SoupBone]

Has the mid or upper level de-coupled? Water vapor shows the center racing off the the NE.

What would this mean if it were true?

[Extratropical1]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/r ... pl?Florida

[KWT]

Does seem to have taken a slight eastward wobble jsut recently but as mentioned it may just be that the center is finally losing its impressive shape its had recently, hard to say!

Dean4Storms, HWRF has this exiting close to Vero Beach....

[Grease Monkey]

I wonder what would happen if her eye was currently positioned stationary right in the smack middle of Lake O.

[txwatcher91]

Looks due north to me if you look where she was near Lake O a few hours ago

On GR2 the last hours is ESE at 4kts, trust me. She is about 35mi from land if she moves due east, so at 4 mph that would be 8hrs.

[deltadog03]

Looks like, as she gets closer to that radar site in MLB...The center is DEF. going to look worse. Ir still shows it moving...(slowly) but, now I think we will see the eye slowly detoriate.