ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

fay's radar looks elongated W-E

big feeder band stretches well east of key largo up thru the NW bahamas then off melbourne

and more coming up thru the fla straits heading toward grand bahama in a couple hours

[txwatcher91]

Looking at the eye on a 3.1 tilt, the eye is DEFINATELY moving ESE in the short term.

[caneman]

Fascinating storm and I concur on the slight Easterly movement. Could come out just North of Ft. Pierce.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Dean, I posted earlier that as the trof pulls away and the high builds in (per the latest wv loops) you can see nw flow coming down from tenn/sc area. I really think that will put a halt to the n movement and force a drift to the ene or even a possible stall already. Will be very interesting the next few hours. Do you see this or have I been looking at this too long?

[jinftl]

Expect the unexpected with Fay....she was in 90 degree water from Cuba to SW Fla and didn't strengthen much at all...and that was just yesterday...who knows what subtle environmental changes await her....the atmosphere is very busy if there are so many possible scenarios....the interplay of all those factors could produce almost any outcome.

Expect the unexpected!

we have all assumed this would be a hurricane off the coast but how sure are the promets that upper level conditions would actually be favorable should this system get off the coast late tonite

Lets just consider this strengthened overland, that should answer your question about whether conditions are favorable...

motion now seems down to about 3kts, pretty slow and would take a while yet for it to get off land if that stays, steering currents are getting very weak indeed now.

[tolakram]

[Extratropical1]

txwatcher - I do see it. What can that mean??

[Jason_B]

Radar looks like a SOUTH drift

She looks very stationary to me.

I see a wobble to the east, but not sure if that is a movement yet or just eye fluctuations on radar.

Looks due north to me if you look where she was near Lake O a few hours ago

Great consensus we got going on here, at least we can rule out she's moving west.....for now.

[KWT]

Yeah it does seem like its wobbled a little ESE recently though now looks like its on a more easterly wobble again.

Agreed Dealtadog looks like the upper support has weakened as you'd expect with the trough moving out of the way now.

[cpdaman]

Has the mid or upper level de-coupled? Water vapor shows the center racing off the the NE.

don't think so , i think some shear is just starting to elongate this thing WSW/ENE

that may also indicate she isn't going all to be moving NNE on her exit


i think her perfect upper level conditions are luckily gone

[txwatcher91]

txwatcher - I do see it. What can that mean??

Well since none of the models show it moving E or ESE, I have no clue, maybe a pro could chime in on this, although in the last 2 frames on GR2 she is now moving at 6kts so is speeding up.

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLFORTP8

[Extratropical1]

I am no ProMet that is for sure but I recall watching Charley obviously moving ENE and the NHC was saying He was still moving North to Tampa...... So hard to tell but the radar doesnt lie

[Extratropical1]

In the short term

[jinftl]

We are in 'wobble watching' mode...it is tiring on the eyes and the brain...especially with Fay...to try to speculate how a wobble north or east or might effect a long-term forecast that involves changing direction a couple of times, doing a loop or two, and finishing with an gold medal worthy somersault flip is going to make for a long week...time to load up on visine and coffee!

Radar looks like a SOUTH drift

She looks very stationary to me.

I see a wobble to the east, but not sure if that is a movement yet or just eye fluctuations on radar.

Looks due north to me if you look where she was near Lake O a few hours ago

Great consensus we got going on here, at least we can rule out she's moving west.....for now.

[txwatcher91]

I am no ProMet that is for sure but I recall watching Charley obviously moving ENE and the NHC was saying He was still moving North to Tampa...... So hard to tell but the radar doesnt lie

Well, the 3.1 tilt still shows the eye is decently defined at the upper levels so that is why I am using it to track motion since it is still pretty circular. It is moving ESE or E at 7kts now which would put it in the water in 4 hours if this speed and motion continues.

[wxman57]

Really looks like a south than southeast wobble. It is probably an illusion though as the center is losing definition.

1hr movement 2344Z-0044Z 072 degrees at 3.7 kts.

[deltadog03]

Radar WILL lie if your looking at the center 2800 feet up or so. Keep an eye, no pun intended, on the IR loops....

[Ground_Zero_92]

I am no ProMet that is for sure but I recall watching Charley obviously moving ENE and the NHC was saying He was still moving North to Tampa...... So hard to tell but the radar doesnt lie

Well, the 3.1 tilt still shows the eye is decently defined at the upper levels so that is why I am using it to track motion since it is still pretty circular. It is moving ESE or E at 7kts now which would put it in the water in 4 hours if this speed and motion continues.

Agreed that it does look that way with 3.1 tilt

[cpdaman]

lyons says signs on radar of rapid weakening , as well as SE DRIFT and that he thinks it may just stay over land and possibly just "limp" over due west in a day or so and get into the gulf as a weakened shadow of itself