ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Brent]

I have never ever seen rain amounts like this:





That's over half our ANNUAL rainfall.

[KWT]

Hmmm doesn't seem to be moving that quickly txwatcher91, I think it looks like its speeding up because the eyewall is losing its definition a little on the eastern side and opening up as well, motion does look close to the east however right now...

[Blown Away]

Wow, I have not looked at the radar in a few hours and when I do I see ESE motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[deltadog03]

where did the 18z gfdl have this going out at??

[jaxfladude]

Good news or bad news for the Northeastern Florida Coastline and the Greater Jacksonville Merto area?
AS it relates to the possibility of Fay making her 3rd Florida on the Florida part of the First Coast...

[Extratropical1]

maybe Lyons is right sounds reasonable for now

[txwatcher91]

Radar WILL lie if your looking at the center 2800 feet up or so. Keep an eye, no pun intended, on the IR loops....

No, with a well-defined eye radar DOES NOT lie because this storm is stacked pretty well. It is moving ESE right now and there is no denying it.

KWT, if you look at a 3.1 or 2.4 tilt the eyewall is still decently defined and it is speeding up moving to the ESE over the past 5 radar frames. Whether this is short term wobbles or not is hard to say, but that is definately the direction it is moving currently.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow:
Good news or bad news for the Northeastern Florida Coastline and the Greater Jacksonville Merto area?

Terrible news.

[RL3AO]

where did the 18z gfdl have this going out at??

Around 28.2N, 80.6W

EDIT: Which is right around Melbourne.

[tallywx]

One almost should entertain the possibility that lacking any major synoptic-scale features to drive movement any longer, dMax of thunderstorms overnight in Fay's east feeder band over the Atlantic could create enough upward momentum to impart an area of lower pressure relative to the immediate surroundings to the extent that the center trends in that direction/is "pulled" offshore.

[KWT]

Pretty near Melbourne I believe Delta...but HWRF had this coming out at Vero beach and assuming wxman57 motion is correct then thats going to be very close to where it comes out, not gaining much latitude right now though which is very interesting indeed...

[cpdaman]

:uarrow:
Good news or bad news for the Northeastern Florida Coastline and the Greater Jacksonville Merto area?

good news if you listened to steve lyons , pretty much good news for everyone

[jdray]

I have never ever seen rain amounts like this:





That's over half our ANNUAL rainfall.

You can come take all you want, I don't want to have to convert my car to a boat to get around...

[Derek Ortt]

this thing finally appears to be weakening. It will be slow to do so though due to the strong winds offshore

[Grease Monkey]

Wow, I have not looked at the radar in a few hours and when I do I see ESE motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

She looks like she's desperate to find some oxygen and is trying creep back to lake O

[SoupBone]

Hmmm....looks like her northern movement is slowing to a crawl or not at all right now. I wonder if this is where she starts her weeble wobble east then starts her way back west. Her trough has picked up and left her all by her lonesome.

[KWT]

txwatcher91, yep wxman57 radar estimates show there has been ENe movement lately so it could well be heading ESe in the last 30 mins...how interesting to observe!

Wonder why???

Derek, agreed still very impressive to see it lasting this long...do you think that now its slowed down and the trough is leaving the region its forcing has decreased?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I know it's only an hour loop, but it's looking like it might not make it north of Melbourne. The trough axis (or what's left of it) is to the east of Fay now, so it may wonder around a little in some weak steering currents for a while. Interesting storm to say the least.

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow:
Good news or bad news for the Northeastern Florida Coastline and the Greater Jacksonville Merto area?

good news if you listened to steve lyons , pretty much good news for everyone

LOL NOt good news when you had 12 inches alredy today...

[Normandy]

Ok I think I can clear up some confusion with regards to Fay's seemingly erratic motion recently. If you notice, the inner core of Fay is actually dying and is starting to rotate around a much broader area of low pressure...This tens to happen with storms once they hit land (not developing strong inner cores like Fay did earlier). Check out the radar and you can see the decaying inner core rotating around a large center...which is why it seems to be moving ESE. It still is moving NE as a whole.