ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[MGC]

Looks like convection is starting to wrap around the center. Strong area of convection on north side of circulation center. A feeder band of sorts is to the west of the circulation center. Will be interesting to see what recon find soon. Sure does look like Edouard is crawling to the west at this time based on long range radar out of Slidell......MGC

[LaBreeze]

From years of experience - listen to the official authorities and heed any warnings.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A exposed low like Arlene, Alberto, Alison that formed in the gulf can and do strengthen. In fact it is down by the strengthing of the LLC, a stronger low pressure with high pressure to the north makes a pressure grade. That makes stronger winds.

As for this system I believe that the shear is weaking and strengthing a little to the south, that should allow for a southern outflow channel to develop. Once the shear and dry air get out of our system I expect it to strengthen. Possibly into a cat1 storm of 70-75 knots.

None of those were completely naked swirls. Well, not sure I remember Arlene. Texas homegrown TCs often have a naked half due dry air intrusion, but they have convection near enough to the center to evacuate air from the surface.

Allison, while lopsided, wasn't a naked swirl by any means.

BTW, obvious to even the most casual observer that a higher pressure gradient (helped by convection which can mix down higher winds aloft, which is why half naked Texas storms usually have stronger winds on East side) makes for stronger winds.

The question, is how is pressure lowered if they are no storms anywhere nearby in a barotropic system.


Edit to add:

I repeat, while convection is displaced from where center was earlier (and still may be), this is not a naked swirl. I also repeat, I also never said partially exposed LLCs couldn't strengthen.

When Alison made landfall it was a naked, exposed, with the convection off to one side. Also the same reason why 99L has holded onto a pretty tight swirl/LLC for the last 3 days on the buttom side of the Azores high.

[fasterdisaster]

I understand, but that doesn't help if the center is almost naked right? Don't we need convection over the LLC for strengthening?

Short answer: No.

I'm not sure you are correct. Besides not being able to think of a mechanism for evacuating air from the surface and lowering pressure in substantial quantities without storms in a non baroclinic system, I can't recall any naked swirl TCs that strengthened while naked.

Some have maintained with comvection nearby/displaced slightly by shear, but I don't remember any naked swirls that strengthened. I hope a pro met answers this question once and for all, as I could always be wrong.

Edit to add- this has convection close enough to where the center was that it probably can maintain, if a new center doesn't form, or even strenghten if a new center does form. This is not a naked swirl. In my humble and unofficial opinion.

I could've understood wrong but I took his question as convection that is displaced instead of completely naked. I agree that yes a swirl can't strengthen but I think the answer to his specific question is no. So basically we're saying the exact same thing lol.

[TexasSam]

So if this storm comes into Texas, i am in the Katy area... what should i expect here?

Lots of rain, a little wind, a little flooding. Think bad thunderstorm, but for a day and a half.

Here in Baytown from this evenings storm I got .25 of rain, the outflow winds were strong enough to break off a few small tree limbs and twigs. The neighbor and I got on the roof and patched a small leak. New roof in October, so not going to spend big bucks now. The guy that bought the house next door is from California, I was talking to him about the then new TD. and he was like " it's just a big thunderstorm, right?" I had to tell him that things change fast. And geeze did things change fast. I have started making and bagging ice. It might just be me, but from the sounds I here Exxon USA might be starting to shutdown. I hear sounds I haven't heard since Rita was coming. Exxon is about 10 blocks north.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: the bad t-storms. Decent analogy, except, as far as possible loss of electricity, if a large enough area experiences TS force winds (we lost power in Rita and I know we never had hurricane winds), there will be enough downed lines service crews will take a while to repair damage, and while service crews can get working right after a severe storm passes, if storm is bad enough, ie, winds near top end TS or above, the crews will have to wait to get to work.

So a day or more w/o electricity is possible even from a Cat 1. I know we went almost two days w/o power back when I lived in Massapequa, NY 11758 from barely Cat 1 Hurricane Belle.

Alicia in 1983, which may not have even been a Cat 3 (Derek has a thread to that effect) had some people in Houston metro in the dark w/o AC in August over a week.

[southerngale]

Lots of rain, a little wind, a little flooding. Think bad thunderstorm, but for a day and a half.

Well thats not too bad.... I can handle that....

You know all that media hype about GET OUT NOW and STAY INDOORS AT ALL COSTS and MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE!!!!!111!!one! stuff? You can pretty much ignore it.

It's also not a good idea to downplay what can happen. Better safe than sorry, ya know?

A local guy died last year during Humberto when he woke up and went outside to check things out. His carport collapsed on him.

Also, the media is often relaying information from the NHC or other government/emergency officials. You shouldn't tell people to ignore that information.

[Tireman4]

Well thats not too bad.... I can handle that....

You know all that media hype about GET OUT NOW and STAY INDOORS AT ALL COSTS and MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE!!!!!111!!one! stuff? You can pretty much ignore it.[/quote]

I must strongly protest this post!!. With this storm the little wind, flooding etc. may very well be the end result but if local authorities, NHC, etc. issue a warning, mandatory evac. all people should follow their directions. Many in NOLA in 2005 ignored warnings and about 1200 paid for it with their lives. Landfalling storms are dangerous and official warnings should not be ignored. As far as media hype, if you take the NHC and local authorities as the final word media hype should not be an issue.[/quote]

I agree. Never ever ever take a landfalling tropical storm lightly. I have been through Alicia and Fran. Fran was at 80MPH when she hit the Raleigh-Durham area. The trees that fell all over the region left us without power for 5 days. Alicia was not fun in 1983. From 1 am to 5 am, the wind ( I was in Texas City) would not let up. Tornado warnings were going up all over the place. I went through the fringes of Rita (in Humble) and we lost power for a day. Just listen to your local NWS and NHC. That would be my best advice.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Matt- may be a definition point. Allison had somewhat displaced convection, but had storms on its Eastern half, close enough to evacuate air.


I mean naked swirls, like EastPac TCs that move well past 26ºC SST isotherm, or (I think name was Chris on best example) TC's where shear blow storms completely away from the center. Not storms displaced slightly off the center. I mean naked swirls.

[wxman22]

WTNT35 KNHC 040230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS EDOUARD CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND EDOUARD
COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




TNT45 KNHC 040230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL
MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND
WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE
COASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES
OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM
MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.1N 88.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.2N 89.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 28.6N 91.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 94.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[MiamiensisWx]

You know all that media hype about GET OUT NOW and STAY INDOORS AT ALL COSTS and MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE!!!!!111!!one! stuff? You can pretty much ignore it.

You do realize that flying debris (not the 1-min winds and gusts themselves) inflict injuries...

The hospital deaths that occur from "winds" are always related to airborne projectiles, many of which occur during strong TS/Cat 1 winds (or weaker). Let's utilize the tornado/severe TSTM analogy as well. Tornado/severe TSTM related deaths always result from misfortunes with tree branches, gravel, sheet rock, and a plethora of small to large objects. When anyone ventures out, a solid dose of caution is always recommended for all of these situations. Storm chasers always heed this advice as well.

[Tireman4]

So if this storm comes into Texas, i am in the Katy area... what should i expect here?

Lots of rain, a little wind, a little flooding. Think bad thunderstorm, but for a day and a half.

Tell that to the people who died in the many storms throughout the years. If you read Issac's Storm, the 1900 Storm at first was just supposed to be a little wind and rain.

[jordanmills]

Well thats not too bad.... I can handle that....

You know all that media hype about GET OUT NOW and STAY INDOORS AT ALL COSTS and MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE!!!!!111!!one! stuff? You can pretty much ignore it.

It's also not a good idea to downplay what can happen. Better safe than sorry, ya know?

A local guy died last year during Humberto when he woke up and went outside to check things out. His carport collapsed on him.

Also, the media is often relaying information from the NHC or other government/emergency officials. You shouldn't tell people to ignore that information.

"Better safe than sorry" killed several people in the Rita mass evacuation debacle. Fact is, action either way can cost you lots of time and effort or even your life. I have a hard time buying this new fad of running around like chickens with our heads cut off at the slightest chance of a storm.

[wxman22]

[jinftl]

Most people grossly underestimate what even sustained tropical storm force conditions can do.....once you start getting winds in the 50 mph range...even in gusts...tree limbs and power lines go down.

Once you get into sustained Cat 1 conditions, people are generally in for a rude awakening from the 'it's only a cat 1' line of thinking....sustained cat 1/low cat 2 conditions in south florida during wilma did $20+ billion in damage...the 3rd costliest storm in u.s. history.

There is no 'weak' hurricane....they all are capable of damage so heed all warnings no matter what the storm category.

Re: the bad t-storms. Decent analogy, except, as far as possible loss of electricity, if a large enough area experiences TS force winds (we lost power in Rita and I know we never had hurricane winds), there will be enough downed lines service crews will take a while to repair damage, and while service crews can get working right after a severe storm passes, if storm is bad enough, ie, winds near top end TS or above, the crews will have to wait to get to work.

So a day or more w/o electricity is possible even from a Cat 1. I know we went almost two days w/o power back when I lived in Massapequa, NY 11758 from barely Cat 1 Hurricane Belle.

Alicia in 1983, which may not have even been a Cat 3 (Derek has a thread to that effect) had some people in Houston metro in the dark w/o AC in August over a week.

[jordanmills]

You know all that media hype about GET OUT NOW and STAY INDOORS AT ALL COSTS and MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE!!!!!111!!one! stuff? You can pretty much ignore it.

You do realize that flying debris (not the 1-min winds and gusts themselves) inflict injuries...

The hospital deaths that occur from "winds" are always related to airborne projectiles, many of which occur during strong TS/Cat 1 winds (or weaker). Let's utilize the tornado/severe TSTM analogy as well. Tornado/severe TSTM related deaths always result from misfortunes with tree branches, gravel, sheet rock, and a plethora of small to large objects. When anyone ventures out, a solid dose of caution is always recommended for all of these situations. Storm chasers always heed this advice as well.

Consider not going outside in 100 mph winds?

[stevetampa33614]

Naked Swirls? Extrapolation, Convergence and Alicia. This conversation is vaguely taking on a sexual encounter from my past.


Anyway. The actual system as a whole looks pretty pathetic right now. Cant wait to hear back from Recon to see if my suspicons are correct (nothing changes, 50mph TS maybe 1000mb pressure).

[HouTXmetro]

Track Shift Right... May Head right through Galveston Bay!!!

Liking the trend, a couple of more and we will have Louisiana landfall but still get the beneficial rain in the Houston area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Addition to better safe than sorry.


I think it was Frances in 1998, that as just a tropical storm, caused some storm surge damage flooding in Galveston and Kemah areas. And even a tropical storm can have hurricane force wind gusts. And a tree branch hitting you can ruin the day.



I've seen enough people on TV after the fact who ignored evac orders who said they'd never do that again, that the course of least regret is following NHC and local NWS and public safety/EMS advisories and orders.

I heard another rule of thumb, repeated after Dolly, always add a Saffir-Simpson category, at least, to official NHC forecast as another course of least regret. If they predict a Cat 1, prepare as if you'd expect at least Cat 2 conditions.

[jabman98]

Alicia in 1983, which may not have even been a Cat 3 (Derek has a thread to that effect) had some people in Houston metro in the dark w/o AC in August over a week.

Yes, this happened in my neighborhood during Alicia. We were without power for only a day or so. But the people one street over were without power for a week. We lived about 15 miles west of downtown Houston - so well enough inland that some of Alicia's strength had been blunted. A tree fell on our house, the street was flooded, and our house was almost flooded. Even a weakening, rapidly moving storm can cause a great deal of damage.

And, sheesh, I stop paying attention for a few days and come back to find a TS/possible hurricane on my doorstep. Yikes. Good thing I decided to top up all the supplies when Dolly was in the Gulf. I think we're all set.

Tomorrow in Houston could be very interesting.