ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

So if this does make it into the atlantic wouldn't we be seeing this eventually become stationary then drift south with the high building in?

Check out the model thread, but the general consensus is north then north west back into land, possible west after a while. personally I don't think anyone knows for sure.

[txwatcher91]

Moving NE at 8-10mph now.

[cpdaman]

well she is on the move at least (For now)

but one thing is for sure

her wv presentation has gotten poorer

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

but the transition of her convection from the center to her periphery looks like extratropical , NO

is this possible, due to shear or something?

[ftolmsteen]

Looking at this radar loop this is probably the most Kay has deviated from the NHC's protected path in such a short period of time... have no idea what it means in the long term

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Fickle Fay strikes again. She's definitely a survivor, too. 10,000 foot mountains? No prob! Skirt mountainous terrain, hugging Cuba's coast? No prob! Gain strength on land? She's says to hell with rules! I do what I want!

[tolakram]

Radar:



Sat:



Looks to me like she just flew apart. So at this point what's more important, the LLC we seem to be tracking on radar or some other center that appears to be moving N/NE?

[LCfromFL]

ZCZC MIATCEAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 10 PM EDT...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

NNNN

[AL Chili Pepper]

As much structure as she has it won't take much to crank back up once she gets in the Atlantic...up to nearly 100kts according to the GFDL. Would that be a record for GA if it followed the GFDL forecast?

[RL3AO]

GRLevel3 1 hr loop

http://i34.tinypic.com/95wpsl.jpg

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at this radar loop this is probably the most Kay has deviated from the NHC's protected path in such a short period of time... have no idea what it means in the long term

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Fickle Fay strikes again. She's definitely a survivor, too. 10,000 foot mountains? No prob! Skirt mountainous terrain, hugging Cuba's coast? No prob! Gain strength on land? She's says to hell with rules! I do what I want!

I think she needs some Prozac or something...She is definitely bi polar.

SFT

BTW, I said it when she was crossing Haiti...We must be living in Bizzaro world where storms strengthen over land and weaken over water. Let's hope for all of our sakes that I'm right and when she gets her feet wet she'll fall apart...

[Clipper96]

Check out the model thread, but the general consensus is north then north west back into land, possible west after a while. personally I don't think anyone knows for sure.

After the "GFS Spaghetti Debacle" (see about ten pages back), I don't know if I can believe any of those things.

Fay is behaving very much as if she isn't going to move much farther north, if any at all, before the head back west. Naturally this implies a storm closer to the center of the Gulf when she's back out there.

[LowndesCoFire]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

With the trop forecast points overlay it seems as though she's right on track.

[93superstorm]

About to enter one or 2 more counties and then its free in the Atlantic and do what ever would say withen the next 2 to 3 hours and she is over water or on the coastline:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[expat2carib]

I cant believe how much structure she has after crossing the state...Can't wait to see what she got when shes back over water.

It scares me to think of what she may do when she gets back over water...Especially since she is supposed to come double back. Talk about Deja Vu!!!

SFT

Fay is hysterical. She hates what's giving her strength....water.

One strange storm. She intensifies and get better developed over land and gets weaker over water.

I'm giving up. She's sick and needs a psychomet

[tolakram]

intermediate update so I'm not connecting the dots yet.



ZCZC MIATCEAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 10 PM EDT...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

NNNN

[wxman57]

As much structure as she has it won't take much to crank back up once she gets in the Atlantic...up to nearly 100kts according to the GFDL. Would that be a record for GA if it followed the GFDL forecast?

I must be looking at another storm on satellite. I see a storm with a collapsing core and expanding wind field. It'll take quite a while to recover from this. Chances of it making hurricane strength have diminished considerably.

[Raebie]

New drinking game. A shot everytime she does something she's not supposed to.

See you all next week.

[SouthFLTropics]

I cant believe how much structure she has after crossing the state...Can't wait to see what she got when shes back over water.

It scares me to think of what she may do when she gets back over water...Especially since she is supposed to come double back. Talk about Deja Vu!!!

SFT

Fay is hysterical. She hates what's giving her strength....water.

One strange storm. She intensifies and get better developed over land and gets weaker over water.

I'm giving up. She's sick and needs a psychomet

I think she needs an exorcist...

Or maybe she really is an Alien like the sat pic the other day depicted...

[Ground_Zero_92]

I cant believe how much structure she has after crossing the state...Can't wait to see what she got when shes back over water.

It scares me to think of what she may do when she gets back over water...Especially since she is supposed to come double back. Talk about Deja Vu!!!

SFT

Fay is hysterical. She hates what's giving her strength....water.

One strange storm. She intensifies and get better developed over land and gets weaker over water.

I'm giving up. She's sick and needs a psychomet

Maybe RECON should start dropping Prozac instead of dropsondes!!

[Frank P]

that sat loop is older than this radar loop by about 45 minutes or so..

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

looks a little to the right of the red forecast line...

[Sanibel]

That eastern band really likes the warm waters it is over so it is imbalancing the system causing Fay to become structurally lopsided and wobble NE. This feeler of warm SST's ahead is keeping Fay from collapsing faster but I believe the venting is the main reason for the structure lasting so long as well as the pressure.