ATL: IKE Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

TWC's Jim Cantore in Galveston...said 30,000 stayed...50% of city

CNN estimating 20,000 still in Galveston. Unreal.

Sadly I'm not surprised. I was watching the local news feeds last night and people just didn't care.

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

[fci]

dr neil frank is on...

talking about how some areas should have never been developed because of the risk of storm surge there...calling the storm surge basically a dome of water 50-75 miles long

Could you provide a link, please ?

http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

Also:
http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826& ... s&noad=yes

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

[jopatura]

TWC's Jim Cantore in Galveston...said 30,000 stayed...50% of city

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

And the fact that there hasn't been a "big" one in Galveston in 25 years. A lot of people I know in that area are convinced it's still going to Louisana like they all have recently.

[jinftl]

Despite what people see in other storms in other cities, there seems to be a 'lesson learning' storm every generation or 2 that will then become the standard against future storm threats are compared. That might be Hugo in Charleston, Andrew in Miami, Katrina in New Orleans and on the MS Coast (replaced Camille), and Alicia or Carla in parts of Texas. I pray Ike doesn't become such a storm for upper TX coast.

[apocalypt-flyer]

http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/2008/09/galvestonians_ride_out_storm_w.html

On the corner of 15th and Postoffice, Landre Ware presided over a smoking grill while his friends used a ladder to board up the windows of their two-story apartment a little after 10 a.m.

"This is how you ride out a storm in Galveston, TX," declared Ware, 37, using a Heinekin bottle to gesture toward heaping piles of bar-b-que ribs, sausage and budain sizzling over the coals. On the street, music throbbed from the speakers of a black sedan. "If the power goes out you gotta have something to eat. We've got everything we need."

"Yeah, we ride it out," said his friend Mike Jones, 39. "We ain't going nowhere."

Ware plans to stay on the second floor as the waters rise and Ike batters on the walls. Already the surge from the bay had flooded the strand a few blocks away and water was beginning to spill out of nearby drains.

What if they get trapped? Ware's not too worried.

"We'll sit there with out orange jackets on and wave," he said.

Not the one for harsh words usually but what UTTER UTTER IDIOTS.

[CronkPSU]

why in the world won't NHC upgrade this to cat 3 while there is still time for people to leave? if they wait much longer, people who do get the message "to get the hell out-it's a cat 3" may be stuck

[txag2005]

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

I think Rita is the blame for both people not evacuating and the city officals dropping the ball on evacs.

All that said, all of us need to pray for those in harm's way. I'm scared to death up here in NE Houston, but I know there are tens of thousands in a much worse spot than me and I hope they make it out alive.

[weunice]

And the fact that there hasn't been a "big" one in Galveston in 25 years.

AND that big one might not have been as big as many there think it was AND that this storm is a Cat-2 which is less than that big one. This setup is horrific ...

[NEXRAD]

I'm not going to emphasize the doom and gloom scenario simply because there are many uncertainties. That said, here's some notes on Ike's current structure...

Beginning around 12Z a dry-air slot circulated into Ike's SW quadrant and disrupted the hurricane's core region. Meanwhile, deep persistent convection with cloud tops to -80C continues east of the center. Deep convective activity is becoming a bit better organized, per IR and IRWV imagery, across Ike's northwest quadrant and the dry air slot has diminished. Ike's convective shield has also become more uniform. Recent reconaissance observations indicate that Ike has not changed much intensity-wise, however given the satellite trends, the storm seems prone to strengthen this afternoon and evening.

These observations are not official per the NHC nor NWSFO.

- Jay

[jinftl]

Based on the accepted criteria for rating storms, it did not meet a Cat 3. Would that have made such a difference than widely publicizing a strong cat 2 with much larger surge potential? Would there be 20,000 left on galveston instead of 30,000? Probably a Cat 4 or 5 would get things going....but then the classification system has been done away with. You would think "killer surge" and "20+ feet" would get people motivated.

why in the world won't NHC upgrade this to cat 3 while there is still time for people to leave? if they wait much longer, people who do get the message "to get the hell out-it's a cat 3" may be stuck

[fci]

http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/2008/09/galvestonians_ride_out_storm_w.html

On the corner of 15th and Postoffice, Landre Ware presided over a smoking grill while his friends used a ladder to board up the windows of their two-story apartment a little after 10 a.m.

"This is how you ride out a storm in Galveston, TX," declared Ware, 37, using a Heinekin bottle to gesture toward heaping piles of bar-b-que ribs, sausage and budain sizzling over the coals. On the street, music throbbed from the speakers of a black sedan. "If the power goes out you gotta have something to eat. We've got everything we need."

"Yeah, we ride it out," said his friend Mike Jones, 39. "We ain't going nowhere."

Ware plans to stay on the second floor as the waters rise and Ike batters on the walls. Already the surge from the bay had flooded the strand a few blocks away and water was beginning to spill out of nearby drains.

What if they get trapped? Ware's not too worried.

"We'll sit there with out orange jackets on and wave," he said.

Someone should go back afterwards and see what is left of the "good ole boys".

[jopatura]

More stupid people stories!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080912/us_nm/storm_ike_holdouts_dc

""I know it sounds crazy, but it's something I've always wanted to do -- experience a hurricane," said Andrew Lawrence, a former convict turned builder, as he knocked back beers and shots in the bar.

"I've been in prison, I've been shot ... I figure if I do this, I'll be the Michael Phelps of travesties," he said, referring to the U.S. swim champion who won a record-setting eight gold medals at the Beijing Olympic games.

Staying on was not for all though. One couple said they were preparing to get off the island, and faced gentle mockery from others in the bar.

"They're voted off the island!" quipped housewife Eva Broughton. "This is 'Survivor,' this is reality.""

[CrazyC83]

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

I think Rita is the blame for both people not evacuating and the city officals dropping the ball on evacs.

All that said, all of us need to pray for those in harm's way. I'm scared to death up here in NE Houston, but I know there are tens of thousands in a much worse spot than me and I hope they make it out alive.

Is your house capable of withstanding at least 8 hours of hurricane-force winds with peak to 100 mph?

[attallaman]

It's a few minutes after 12 Noon here in Biloxi, I've been up most of the night, I haven't encountered that much rain from Ike during the night or today but I have had a lot of wind. It's still windy here right now but the sun is trying to come out. What I want to know is this, is the worst of the weather associated with Ike over for me here in Biloxi or can I expect more wind and possibly some rain later tonight here in Biloxi?

[txag2005]

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

I think Rita is the blame for both people not evacuating and the city officals dropping the ball on evacs.

All that said, all of us need to pray for those in harm's way. I'm scared to death up here in NE Houston, but I know there are tens of thousands in a much worse spot than me and I hope they make it out alive.

Is your house capable of withstanding at least 8 hours of hurricane-force winds with peak to 100 mph?

I'm in a house with brick on all 4 sides that was built a few years before Hurricane Alicia, so I know it survived that storm. I'm not in a mobile home.

[NEXRAD]

Based on the accepted criteria for rating storms, it did not meet a Cat 3. Would that have made such a difference than widely publicizing a strong cat 2 with much larger surge potential? Would there be 20,000 left on galveston instead of 30,000? Probably a Cat 4 or 5 would get things going....but then the classification system has been done away with. You would think "killer surge" and "20+ feet" would get people motivated.

why in the world won't NHC upgrade this to cat 3 while there is still time for people to leave? if they wait much longer, people who do get the message "to get the hell out-it's a cat 3" may be stuck

I think quite a bit to do with the evacuations has to do with what's in recent (collective) memory for a given area. For example, in Florida I recall people in my area not taking threatening hurricanes too seriously after 1999's Floyd missed us. After Charley (2004) hit, though, people started taking hurricanes far more seriously. Based on my qualitative observations, there seems to be a tendency for people to prepare less for a storm after a false-warning, and for the Houston area that false warning would've been Rita, of course. The problem isn't so much a classification system as it is the very nature of weather forecasting. People base their current actions at least partially on past experience, and when past experience tells that "storms always miss this area," they are more prone to heed that belief than they are the reality that no current hurricane follows a mythical tendency carved out by storms from past years.

- Jay

[jinftl]

Unless the structure is a mobile home and there is no window protection, i would be very suprised to hear of major structural damage from even sustained cat 1 winds to buildings. Trees will crash into homes...but you will not see images from inland se tx like we saw out of homestead...you will see wilma-type damage in south florida....probably a very close analogy

Im sure we can place some blame on Rita...

I think Rita is the blame for both people not evacuating and the city officals dropping the ball on evacs.

All that said, all of us need to pray for those in harm's way. I'm scared to death up here in NE Houston, but I know there are tens of thousands in a much worse spot than me and I hope they make it out alive.

Is your house capable of withstanding at least 8 hours of hurricane-force winds with peak to 100 mph?

[bayoubebe]

This is just from tropical storm conditions. Imagine what Texas is going to get.

Terrebonne levees breaking and water filling neighborhoods

WWL.com Reporting

Levees are breaking and communities are taking on water in Terrebonne Parish.

Search and rescue is underway in Lower Terrebonne where the water is rising. Crews are using trucks and boats to get people out of their homes.

[jinftl]

agree...and in no way is this just a texas phenomenon....sadly, fear sometimes is needed to induce action...look how well new orleans heeded the warning for gustav...pretty impressive from my outside perspective

Based on the accepted criteria for rating storms, it did not meet a Cat 3. Would that have made such a difference than widely publicizing a strong cat 2 with much larger surge potential? Would there be 20,000 left on galveston instead of 30,000? Probably a Cat 4 or 5 would get things going....but then the classification system has been done away with. You would think "killer surge" and "20+ feet" would get people motivated.

why in the world won't NHC upgrade this to cat 3 while there is still time for people to leave? if they wait much longer, people who do get the message "to get the hell out-it's a cat 3" may be stuck

I think quite a bit to do with the evacuations has to do with what's in recent (collective) memory for a given area. For example, in Florida I recall people in my area not taking threatening hurricanes too seriously after 1999's Floyd missed us. After Charley (2004) hit, though, people started taking hurricanes far more seriously. Based on my qualitative observations, there seems to be a tendency for people to prepare less for a storm after a false-warning, and for the Houston area that false warning would've been Rita, of course. The problem isn't so much a classification system as it is the very nature of weather forecasting. People base their current actions at least partially on past experience, and when past experience tells that "storms always miss this area," they are more prone to heed that belief than they are the reality that no current hurricane follows a mythical tendency carved out by storms from past years.

- Jay