ATL: IKE Discussion

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KWT
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#10961 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:49 pm

Best presentation I've seen from Ike for a long time now, relaly does seem like Ike is trying to wrap around in the final 12hrs before landfall.
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#10962 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:50 pm

Image

On radar, the eye is beginning to contract. We may indeed have a 3 at landfall.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10963 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:51 pm

Much agreed, KWT. Ike's deep convection is really tightening up around the center.

- Jay
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10964 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:51 pm

sounds like pre-andrew miami with some of the same issues...ike is not andrew...not even close (referring to south dade andrew)....so hopefully the damage will be limited to the nuisance and cosmetic...but boy can that be costly in terms of $. A year after Wilma, I was smacked with a $12,000 condo assessment for uninsured damage....the biggest damage for many may be to their wallets!

lantanatx wrote:I'm not so sure about the ability of a "modern" house in the Houston/Galveston area to survive. Unlike Florida and other coastal states, Texas has not really implemented improvements to the building codes in hurricane prone areas. Many houses in the Houston metro area were thrown up by big developers to the bare minimum building codes during the housing boom the last decade, and many homeowners have found numerous problems develop within months of closing - code violations, foundations, plumbing, etc. I hope I'm wrong, but I think even if we don't get Cat 3 winds, we will still see significant wind damage inland outside the surge zone. Houston has lots of trees, and in many of the new developments the trees planted were fast growing ashes, hackberries, etc.

I bought a 1955 house over a 10 year old house on the advice of my father who was an architectural engineer. The quality of the lumber (density and closeness of the grain) and the overall construction was much better in the 40 year old house, over the 10 year old house, and it had shown the ability to withstand storms in the past.

http://www.caller.com/news/2008/jun/02/ ... uotits-in/
In Texas, building codes not priority
Associated Press
Monday, June 2, 2008

HOUSTON -- Building codes in hurricane-prone parts of Texas lag behind those of other Gulf states that responded with stiffer standards after the devastating storm seasons of 2004-05.

Hurricane and disaster experts say they are stunned that Texas has done nothing to bolster building codes nearly three years after Hurricane Rita blasted its Gulf coast, the Houston Chronicle reported Sunday.

"Texas is an aberration," said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, chief executive of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, a nonprofit organization. "It's eerily quiet in the state. Why are they not having a conversation about codes?"

Florida, the gold standard among U.S. states in a rating system for building codes and enforcement, further strengthened its codes after the 2004-05 seasons. So did Mississippi and Louisiana, which adopted a statewide building code for the first time after Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans and Rita battered its southwestern coast.

Texas, meanwhile, has quasi-mandatory codes for coastal residents, unevenly enforced codes in cities, and builder-enforced codes elsewhere. National advocates for stronger building codes say that's not a progressive approach for a hurricane-prone state.

Chapman-Henderson said the first step toward creating a statewide code would be to hire engineers from the state's universities to assess the existing quality of homes and building code enforcement. That would provide information to begin developing a uniform code. The code could have different standards for coastal and inland communities.

"This is one of the avoidable disasters," she said. "Not doing anything is the classic definition of insanity."

The idea of a statewide building code appears to have little traction in Texas. Such a plan probably would require counties to take on additional enforcement work in unincorporated areas.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said that while it's something to consider, cost will be an issue. He also says it's unrealistic to compare Texas to Florida.

"Everyone likes to talk about Florida, Florida, Florida," Emmett said. "But Texas is not a narrow peninsula sticking out into the ocean."

Florida leads the nation with an average rating of 3.5 on a grading scale from 1 (exemplary) to 10 conducted by ISO, an information risk company that primarily serves insurers by assessing building codes and enforcement standards in communities. A good rating generally lowers a region's insurance rates.

Texas scores an average of 5.5 on the ISO scale, a point worse than the national average. Houston, Baytown, Pearland and Harlingen were the best Texas cities with ratings of 4. Beaumont, which sustained considerable damage from Rita, scored poorly with an 8, Victoria with a 9, and Corpus Christi and Brownsville declined to participate in the program.

Corpus Christi has had staffing problems, a spokeswoman said, but eventually will participate.

Texas implemented some building standards along the coast after Hurricane Alicia struck the Houston area in 1983. The program requires homeowners to pay a surcharge to the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association if homes aren't up to code.

"When it comes to building homes, we need to talk about preventive measures," said Julie Roachman, chief executive of the Institute for Business and Home Safety, a nonprofit group dedicated to reducing property losses. "We should use things such as hurricane straps as selling points, not granite counter tops and surround sound."
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10965 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:52 pm

Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10966 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:52 pm

NEXRAD wrote:Much agreed, KWT. Ike's deep convection is really tightening up around the center.

- Jay


Maybe I should try to take a nap, because I'm sure not going to get any sleep tonight.
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#10967 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:53 pm

wxman57, so would that shift the hit back to the west side of the bay if that motion stays?

Of course I suppose the most logical answer is that Ik eis going to wobble about a fair amount.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10968 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:53 pm

I'm simply horrified by the way this is all unfolding. I've got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that just will not go away.

At this point, it seems as if Ike is about to become one for the ages, perhaps the benchmark storm.

I think I now understand what Isaac Cline must have felt like on a September day in 1900...
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#10969 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:54 pm

I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10970 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:54 pm

the areas up the coast some from galveston are going to be on that front right side...and close enough to the eye..that landfall point is pretty much irrelevant for them i am afraid...barring some huge change

wxman57 wrote:Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.
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Re:

#10971 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)


Not sure. They must be putting a lot of trust in Smurf.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10972 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:55 pm

Ike has been going slightly north of his 5 AM forecast path. Usually I do not dwell on small path changes, but every wobble is important from here on in for surge up Galveston Bay.

Image
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#10973 Postby Time Traveller » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:55 pm

Hey, did anyone just see the Coast Guard helicopter rescue that woman and dog from that stranded white truck on channel 11? Wow.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10974 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:55 pm

jinftl wrote:the areas up the coast some from galveston are going to be on that front right side...and close enough to the eye..that landfall point is pretty much irrelevant for them i am afraid...barring some huge change

wxman57 wrote:Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.



Yea Eye passage over the whole Area seems inevitable..
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Re: Re:

#10975 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)


Not sure. They must be putting a lot of trust in Smurf.


I would not put trust in that when it has had a low bias throughout the entire storm
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10976 Postby txag2005 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:56 pm

I definately might try to take a nap as well as I imagine tonight will be one of the scariest nights of my life. I've never through a hurricane and I have all sorts of ideas in my head about what could happen.

I do want to thank everyone on here for their knowledge. The last few months have taught me so much and this board even got my wife and I to begin preparations way before the media reported us at risk due to the incredible posters on here.

Hopefully I can post updates as long as have power, and please keep everyone in the Galveston/Houston area in your thoughts and prayers. I imagine the vast majority of the 4-5 million Houston area residents are still in town riding this out, so there will definitely be a significant impact for this storm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10977 Postby rtd2 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.




wxman57,
I Agree IKE hitting east would make a huge difference.....as for the MANY wobble post I've seen in the past
NOW through landfall is when the WOBBLES START TO MATTER! not back on page 200!
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#10978 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:56 pm

Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.
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Re: Re:

#10979 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:57 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)


Not sure. They must be putting a lot of trust in Smurf.


I would not put trust in that when it has had a low bias throughout the entire storm


Im perplexed as well...115MPH at surface is a pretty good # right now..
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Re:

#10980 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:57 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)

123kt flight level? poop where was that reported? I must have missed that. That makes it a fairly solid cat 3 does it not? With 105 to 110kt sfc winds?
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