ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Now, remember, euro has loooooooong gone away from this.....BUT When it showed this last week I had to save it just too see if there where anything that could come close to that!!

[ronjon]

Here we go again boys and girls. A Fay track redux? How many times in the past have we seen storms follow similar tracks as the previous one. I'm not saying that is going to happen with soon to be Gustav but the tracks from the models are looking awfully close to Fay - especially 5-6 days out. As of today, and we know this will change, the weakness in the mid-level ridge will be the eastern GOM - have to see maybe again if that hurricane deflector shield will work for Tampa.

[Blown Away]

Would SFL be in the 5 day cone if 94L becomes a TD?

[weatherguru18]

Here we go again boys and girls. A Fay track redux? How many times in the past have we seen storms follow similar tracks as the previous one. I'm not saying that is going to happen with soon to be Gustav but the tracks from the models are looking awfully close to Fay - especially 5-6 days out. As of today, and we know this will change, the weakness in the mid-level ridge will be the eastern GOM - have to see maybe again if that hurricane deflector shield will work for Tampa.

Hey, Houston has one of those shields as well. Something about a concave coast...hurricanes just don't like em'. I've been in Houston almost 20 years and I have NEVER seen a hurricane strike directly...well, Jerry but that doesn't really count.

[alan1961]

Gustav, if that's you, knock three times!

but not on Florida's ceiling!

[hurricanefloyd5]

If this is going to be another florida storm then all floridanains to take cover in your boats and/or on your matteresses

[gatorcane]

Would SFL be in the 5 day cone if 94L becomes a TD?

I think its definitely possible.

[deltadog03]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

That is a great WV link...Shows things from a larger scale....Its a big map so it takes a sec. or 2 to finish loading...

[Pearl River]

From Key West Disco:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE DEEP...EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL BE STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A DOUBLE ASSAULT BY A MID LATITUDE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE SECOND ATTACK WILL
COME FROM AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC SYSTEM MIGRATING WESTWARD INTO THE
BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. WITH A
DISTINCT AND DEEP WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. ALSO...ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING HISPANIOLA WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FAR REMOVED FROM OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PROFILE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR CLOUD LINE
FORMATION. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO LOW CHANCE POPS AND AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 94, 2008082512, , BEST, 0, 151N, 696W, 30, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK and SSD DVORAK coincide on the position.

25/1145 UTC 15.1N 69.6W T2.5/2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[sevenleft]

LLC? What LLC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sure looks good on satellite. Visible loop should have a few frames soon, anyway.

Unofficially, I like the Canadian track, towards Florida. Not that I'm wishing another storm on Florida so soon after the last one, just, unofficially and in my amateur opinion, seems like a possible track.

I hope they wouldn't cancel a football game in Texas because a hurricane is headed to the visiting school's (Florida Atlantic) area. I got tickets and hotel reservations in Austin. But I couldn't blame FAU if they did.

The system is going to have to start a pretty dramatic northward component to make the Canadian worth believing. Nah Ed, I'm thinking Gustav-to-be wants to come see you in Texas!

Joe Bastardi, AccuWx's Lead Hurricane Forecaster, on 7 am update, said Florida and Southeast, and implied Florida may once again owe a debt of gratitude to the 3 km peaks of Hispaniola. He also questions why NHC hasn't called this a depression already.

I'm ok waiting for recon...

[Pearl River]

Question for any Pro Mets. What, if any effects, could Julio play on the steering currents from the Pacific/SW US side have on 94L?

Thanx,

Mike

[Thunder44]

LLC? What LLC?

This will probably keep TPC from upgrading it before the plane gets there this afternoon. It might need some more time to get organized at the surface.

[cheezyWXguy]

LLC? What LLC?

This will probably keep TPC from upgrading it before the plane gets there this afternoon. It might need some more time to get organized at the surface.

Nope. We saw the same thing in Bertha when it was a major. Quikscat is a satellite, and sometimes cannot see all the way to the surface when rain is extremely heavy. Therefore, this and Bertha were portrayed as open waves, even though Bertha did and this one likely does have a llc.

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at the time stamp that is an old image.

LLC? What LLC?

This will probably keep TPC from upgrading it before the plane gets there this afternoon. It might need some more time to get organized at the surface.

Nope. We saw the same thing in Bertha when it was a major. Quikscat is a satellite, and sometimes cannot see all the way to the surface when rain is extremely heavy. Therefore, this and Bertha were portrayed as open waves, even though Bertha did and this one likely does have a llc.

[JPmia]

Sure looks good on satellite. Visible loop should have a few frames soon, anyway.

Unofficially, I like the Canadian track, towards Florida. Not that I'm wishing another storm on Florida so soon after the last one, just, unofficially and in my amateur opinion, seems like a possible track.

I hope they wouldn't cancel a football game in Texas because a hurricane is headed to the visiting school's (Florida Atlantic) area. I got tickets and hotel reservations in Austin. But I couldn't blame FAU if they did.

The system is going to have to start a pretty dramatic northward component to make the Canadian worth believing. Nah Ed, I'm thinking Gustav-to-be wants to come see you in Texas!

Joe Bastardi, AccuWx's Lead Hurricane Forecaster, on 7 am update, said Florida and Southeast, and implied Florida may once again owe a debt of gratitude to the 3 km peaks of Hispaniola. He also questions why NHC hasn't called this a depression already.

I'm ok waiting for recon...

Did he specify where in Florida? just curious.

[caneman]

Too add to that, I believe due to how fast it is moving can make it hard for quikscat to pick up a LLc. SOmeone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that to be correct.