ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[PTrackerLA]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Lili was an October storm, and might have been a big one if it hadn't lingered over the Yucatan. The name 'Juan' sounds familiar as well. The one (barely, Jerry, 1989) hurricane in sixty years in October rule for Texas doesn't apply to Louisiana.

That was Isidore that lingered over the Yucatan, Lili crossed Cuba and threatened to make landfall in Vermilion bay as a cat 4 but ingested dry air and/or went over upwelling from Isidore and miraculously weakened to a cat 1 as it moved inland. Still received a pretty good lashing here in Lafayette but what a scare that was!

[LaunchGal]

A portion of A1A was (is still?) closed as well due to flooding. Around Satellite Beach? Sorry, can't recall atm.

Fay may hate water, but she sure doesn't mind relocating it in large amounts.

[Sean in New Orleans]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Lili was an October storm, and might have been a big one if it hadn't lingered over the Yucatan. The name 'Juan' sounds familiar as well. The one (barely, Jerry, 1989) hurricane in sixty years in October rule for Texas doesn't apply to Louisiana.

That was Isidore that lingered over the Yucatan, Lili crossed Cuba and threatened to make landfall in Vermilion bay as a cat 4 but ingested dry air and/or went over upwelling from Isidore and miraculously weakened to a cat 1 as it moved inland. Still received a pretty good lashing here in Lafayette but what a scare that was!

Lili could have been a nightmare! That was a very close call.

[cpdaman]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

it couldn't be as good as yesterday morning could it, because that would indicate strengthening, and fay is even closer to water than she was yesterday when conditions and divergence were very very high.

[Sabanic]

I think the north movement is over and from a stall or slight drift to the east I don't see her making a N to NNW to NW to WNW movement once she moves westward after the ridge begins to push her west. She could make a bee line westward for the Gulf IMO.

That is what I am thinking possibly. Once the slow, slow northward movement ceases she is going to go somewhere, and because of the ridge you would think westward.

[SoupBone]

Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

How in the world can you say this when almost the entire state is still in the cone? Now she probably won't be a major but come on this is ridiculous.

[gboudx]

Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

How in the world can you say this when almost the entire state is still in the cone? Now she probably won't be a major but come on this is ridiculous.

He addressed that on the previous page. Whether you agree with his assessment and analysis is another thing.

[paintplaye]

Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

How in the world can you say this when almost the entire state is still in the cone? Now she probably won't be a major but come on this is ridiculous.

I agree. After Katrina I would always be prepared especially when some of the models show it coming that way.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmm...any chance this could actually drift ESE, or even SE? With the high building in and actually headed east, with a slight bulge to the SE, seems plausible in the short term, at least to the point where the Bermuda High blocks that pathway.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Lili was an October storm, and might have been a big one if it hadn't lingered over the Yucatan. The name 'Juan' sounds familiar as well. The one (barely, Jerry, 1989) hurricane in sixty years in October rule for Texas doesn't apply to Louisiana.

That was Isidore that lingered over the Yucatan, Lili crossed Cuba and threatened to make landfall in Vermilion bay as a cat 4 but ingested dry air and/or went over upwelling from Isidore and miraculously weakened to a cat 1 as it moved inland. Still received a pretty good lashing here in Lafayette but what a scare that was!

I always get those two confused...

[SouthFLTropics]

Now I've heard it all...I wonder if this escape has something to do with Fay...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,407081,00.html

Lions, Tigers, Fay...Oh my!!!

SFT

[Stormcenter]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

I was thinking the same thing, if she gets well enough off the coast for a day I see no reason why she couldn't gain hurricane status.

There will be a lot of "dry" air to Fay north if she makes into the GOM. Unless she gets way down there (unlikely). This will hopefully prevent any major strengthening.

[PurdueWx80]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

it couldn't be as good as yesterday morning could it, because that would indicate strengthening, and fay is even closer to water than she was yesterday when conditions and divergence were very very high.

the outflow has never looked better than it does now. there's an excellent outflow jet shooting east from the north side of the storm, and another heading off to the southwest (from the bahamas towards central america). outflow is great in all other quads. there might be some very light southwesterly shear way above the storm, as i see some water vapor streaming from the yucatan northeast towards fay - it's hard to tell what level this is at - maybe near 300 mb? sans land and some minor dry air, fay would be in an excellent environment to strengthen.

[dixiebreeze]

Fay is definitely looking better than ever!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[Dean4Storms]

I think the north movement is over and from a stall or slight drift to the east I don't see her making a N to NNW to NW to WNW movement once she moves westward after the ridge begins to push her west. She could make a bee line westward for the Gulf IMO.

That is what I am thinking possibly. Once the slow, slow northward movement ceases she is going to go somewhere, and because of the ridge you would think westward.

Yep and another reason why I think she ceases a north movement is because she has weakened a good bit and may still further weaken. A shallow LLC may react to the ridge with even a WSW movement for a time and that would not be good. If Fay had stayed a sub 995mb storm I could see her fighting the ridging a bit more, but not in her state now and I think that is where the GFDL and HWRF are getting her solution wrong, they kept on with a deep system with her north movement and have backed off a little on thier latest runs, which I still think are a bit overdone.

[jlauderdal]

Now I've heard it all...I wonder if this escape has something to do with Fay...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,407081,00.html

Lions, Tigers, Fay...Oh my!!!

SFT

i wouldnt want to be locked in a cage if there was 10 inches of rain on the way

[Dean4Storms]

The outflow pattern is absolutely stunning. From a meteorological point of view, I can't help but thinking what a waste of a good upper level environment!

I was thinking the same thing, if she gets well enough off the coast for a day I see no reason why she couldn't gain hurricane status.

There will be a lot of "dry" air to Fay north if she makes into the GOM. Unless she gets way down there (unlikely). This will hopefully prevent any major strengthening.

There is a lot of dry air to the north of Fay now.

[wxman57]

I don't think that Fay will move much farther north before turning WNW. I have the center clipping (just barely) the NE Gulf between the peninsula and the panhandle on Friday as a remnant low or TD with 25-30 mph winds before heading up into teh western panhandle then turning NW into western Alabama. I don't think there is much chance of it spending too much time over water in the NE Gulf, so regeneration is unlikely. Just a rain threat.

[chris_fit]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1144 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008




.DISCUSSION...

...EXTREME FLOODING DANGER IN SOUTH BREVARD...
...TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY NORTH TO CAPE
CANAVERAL SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER HAS RESULTED IN PROFOUND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY.

STORM TOTAL REPORTS OF 16 AND 21 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER
NORTH MELBOURNE. THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD IN THE
SHORT TERM.

[paintplaye]

This thing has barely moved if at all over the last four hours.