Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

That seems to be way too quick IMO Derek given the fairly slack conditions some models have been predicting around that timeframe...same as GFS, not surprising given they are based off the same data I suppose, think they are over egging the weakness again.

Still both the GFDL and HWRF are showing pretty rapid strengthening in the Bahamas, scary stuff!

[JPmia]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081418-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL cat 4

wave until Cuba

1935 like intensifictation in Bahamas

wow these runs between the GFDL and the HWRF models are very creepy and too close for comfort...note that they are not trending much beyond a FL peninsula to Central Bahamas path

[SWFLA_CANE]

Derek, do you see this making such a sharp right turn. Is there something in the atmosphere that is storng enough to turn this from wnw to almost due north?

[CrazyC83]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081418-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL cat 4

wave until Cuba

1935 like intensifictation in Bahamas

1935 like as in the Labor Day Hurricane? I thought that bombed like 80mb in 24 hours and went from a tropical storm to a monster Cat 5 in 30 hours?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not convinced... however, if steering currents are weak... this turn can occur

What this means is everyone from New Orleans to Sable Island, Nova Scotia needs to monitor the progress of this storm

[Derek Ortt]

that went from a cat 1 to a cat 5

this goes from a disorganized mess to a cat 4 very rapidly

[GreenSky]

its too soon to say if this will hit Florida, miss to the east, or even west

Well for the past 2 days, most of the reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, EURO, ETC.) have been showing a Floyd like track in the makings...so isn't there a reasonably good chance (not 100% mind you!) that 92L or whatever it turns into will spare Florida and instead nail the Carolinas?

I can understand if people keep saying that the models will change and that it is still too early, but these models have been trending east of Florida now consistently for like 2 days and they are starting to cluster into good agreement. With this said, why is there still all this uncertainty?

[CrazyC83]

That seems to be way too quick IMO Derek given the fairly slack conditions some models have been predicting around that timeframe...same as GFS, not surprising given they are based off the same data I suppose, think they are over egging the weakness again.

Still both the GFDL and HWRF are showing pretty rapid strengthening in the Bahamas, scary stuff!

I haven't seen anything like take place on that path since 1938...

[fox13weather]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

100% chance?? careful! In a summer dominated by an east coast trough, a turn to the northeast and missing the conus would not be a big surprise at all.

[DESTRUCTION5]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

100% chance?? careful! In a summer dominated by an east coast trough, a turn to the northeast and missing the conus would not be a big surprise at all.

He said Land..Including the Bahamas,DR,PR,ECT

[KWT]

The problem I have is the GFS models are very well known for something of a right bias (by the way I have a little theory for that, thanks to living in the UK I've noticed something with the GFS model...) if the UKMO showed a more easterly track as well then I'd be much more entilted to believe it because the UKMO if anything has a habit of being a little too west.

[AJC3]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

100% chance?? careful! In a summer dominated by an east coast trough, a turn to the northeast and missing the conus would not be a big surprise at all.

If I can speak for Derek...what he means here is "land" i.e. the islands, which includes the VI, PR, etc. etc. One of his pet peeves is that a "fish storm" is often used here in a CONUS-centric sense.

[GreenSky]

its too soon to say if this will hit Florida, miss to the east, or even west

Well for the past 2 days, most of the reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, EURO, ETC.) have been showing a Floyd like track in the makings...so isn't there a reasonably good chance (not 100% mind you!) that 92L or whatever it turns into will spare Florida and instead nail the Carolinas?

I can understand if people keep saying that the models will change and that it is still too early, but these models have been trending east of Florida now consistently for like 2 days and they are starting to cluster into good agreement. With this said, why is there still all this uncertainty?

Anyone want to comment or share their thoughts on what I am seeing?
I think it is a good question worth some discussion.

[Derek Ortt]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

100% chance?? careful! In a summer dominated by an east coast trough, a turn to the northeast and missing the conus would not be a big surprise at all.

I said there is a 100% chance it will impact land

I did not say 100% chance of US land

[HURAKAN]

Don't know if this was already posted.

043
WHXX04 KWBC 142330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 63.8 285./14.0
6 18.0 64.8 269./ 8.8
12 18.4 66.0 290./12.3
18 18.4 67.4 272./13.7
24 18.8 68.4 289./10.3
30 18.9 69.3 277./ 8.5
36 19.5 70.5 296./12.2
42 20.0 72.3 285./17.5
48 20.1 73.5 279./12.2
54 20.4 74.5 283./ 9.1
60 20.6 75.3 284./ 7.9
66 21.2 76.1 310./10.2
72 21.9 76.8 312./ 9.3
78 22.6 77.2 335./ 8.0
84 23.5 77.6 333./ 9.5
90 24.5 78.0 339./10.4
96 25.5 78.1 352./10.7
102 26.4 78.2 357./ 8.4
108 27.3 78.3 353./ 9.3
114 28.3 78.2 1./ 9.6
120 29.0 78.2 1./ 7.8
126 29.9 78.0 16./ 8.4

[Bocadude85]

its too soon to say if this will hit Florida, miss to the east, or even west

Well for the past 2 days, most of the reliable models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, EURO, ETC.) have been showing a Floyd like track in the makings...so isn't there a reasonably good chance (not 100% mind you!) that 92L or whatever it turns into will spare Florida and instead nail the Carolinas?

I can understand if people keep saying that the models will change and that it is still too early, but these models have been trending east of Florida now consistently for like 2 days and they are starting to cluster into good agreement. With this said, why is there still all this uncertainty?

Anyone want to comment or share their thoughts on what I am seeing?
I think it is a good question worth some discussion.

The models havent been trending east of Florida for days the 12z models just a few hours ago brought this ashore in Florida...only trend I see is this will be in the Bahamas.. and from what I hear the 12z and oz models are usually considered the better runs...

[Dean4Storms]

I do not see what the GFS and other based models of the GFS see that abruptly turns 92L northward on a dime. I believe right now the best way to approach this is to shoot down the middle between the western most the CMC to eastern most the GFS and NAM and say that the southern Bahamas and South Florida really need to stay to date on this system and make early preparations now where feasible. The NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET are not seeing this abrupt turn and quite frankly I don't either. This remnant front should not be enough to turn a system down around western Cuba IMO at this degree. I could see a more gradual turn as the NOGAPS indicates but not a sudden turn in these weak steering currents as indicated in 3 days much less a weakened system over land that becomes decoupled.

[HURAKAN]

943
WHXX01 KWBC 150034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080815 0000 080815 1200 080816 0000 080816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 64.6W 19.0N 67.1W 19.6N 69.6W 20.3N 71.9W
BAMD 18.3N 64.6W 18.7N 67.0W 19.1N 69.3W 19.7N 71.5W
BAMM 18.3N 64.6W 18.9N 67.0W 19.6N 69.2W 20.3N 71.4W
LBAR 18.3N 64.6W 18.9N 67.2W 19.6N 69.8W 20.2N 72.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080817 0000 080818 0000 080819 0000 080820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 73.7W 22.8N 76.0W 24.9N 75.6W 26.9N 73.9W
BAMD 20.5N 73.4W 22.9N 75.4W 25.3N 75.1W 26.4N 74.4W
BAMM 21.2N 73.0W 23.7N 74.9W 26.4N 74.6W 28.8N 73.1W
LBAR 20.8N 75.0W 23.0N 78.3W 25.8N 79.1W 28.1N 79.5W
SHIP 59KTS 74KTS 87KTS 92KTS
DSHP 59KTS 74KTS 87KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 64.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 62.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 59.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Ivanhater]

Bams big shift East, have no clue what they are seeing to turn it SHARPLY northeast..

[Steve]

>>I do not see what the GFS and other based models of the GFS see that abruptly turns 92L northward on a dime.

That's because it's all speculative. I'm assuming you've already run the upper air models (or at least 500 and 250). If not, here's the 18z zonal shear 850-200 overlay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I could have it partially wrong, but this is what I see that it's doing: The trough from this week's front plunges further south into the Gulf of Mexico and splits a piece of energy off into the NE Gulf. The eastern side of the trough then begins to lift out off the mid-Atlantic Coast. The piece of the high coming down from Canada that several of the westerly-biased models see coming down is weaker and doesn't sit north of then-Fay until it's about on a line of the GA or SC Coast (you can see that on the MSLP loop). An upper level low pressure then comes in underneath 92L and moves into the SE Gulf.

Not saying that's what's going to happen, just what I think 18z GFS's reasoning is. Ultimately the flow ahead of the trough causes the recurvature up to a point before showing a slowdown.

JMInterpretation

Steve