ATL: IKE Discussion

[Grease Monkey]

I'm guessing because it's not close enough to hitting land for recon to fly out.

[Derek Ortt]

How is that a consensus? 3 of the 6 in the cluster go NW and the other 3 go WNW at FL?

Not to mention one of our top 3 models is pounding Hati?

They're all consensus models, meaning they average the other models and come up with a track that's better than any one model. I'm putting more weight on the variable corrected consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) as they allow the forecaster to modify/change which models go into the mix. A consistently bad model can be thrown out. Those are the orange tracks in the plot below. Green is HWRF. Yellow is GFS, Brown-purpleish near GFS is the UKMET.

Like I said, a turn east of Florida is not a certainty, but the trend is more east with each run.

The problem is though, the GFS has this far too weak and it does not properly respond to the deep layer ridge. That's why I totally chucked the GFS

[caneseddy]

If this was asked and answered on a previous page sorry for asking again but Derek is saying a stronger storm will go west and I thought with it was the oppisite that it would go north. Is the direction based on each individual storm and the current conditions?

From what I know (and is very little) is that a strong storm will pump the ridge and make the ridge even stronger than it already is and reduce any and all weakness

It's not out of the ordinary to have storms make that track straight into Florida (Donna, 1928 Okeechobee, 1926 Miami Hurricane, Frances. 1947 Ft. Lauderdale are examples of storms that formed in early September from the Cape Verdes and became long trackers into Florida)

[cpdaman]

ike moving fast

will be interesting to me to see how much he climbs in response to the trough lifting out in the NE

[tolakram]

Questions:

To most of the TC in invest stage, NHC had recon missions. Why not this one?

Recon data is/was used to feed at least one model. With Gustav they dropped a lot of temperature measuring equipment in the Gulf to feed one model.

As I know the first recon is planned on Friday.

I guess recon gives them essential data to predict some of the most important variables.

Why is recon not in the picture yet?

It's too far out for recon I believe.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM builds the ridge to the north of Ike much stronger than previous runs..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[sponger]

As versed as I am with hurricanes, I know little about annular except they they are more frequent in the Pacific. I would love to hear anyones insight into what annular means.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

Thanks Brent!

[frederic79]

For what it's worth and maybe not much but if you go back and look at Ivan's advisory archive, it was forecast to recurve like Ike east of Fl, into Fl, west of Fl and finally where it ended up. Yes Ivan was at a much lower latitude originally but the steering mechanism was the same, a strong ridge of high pressure. Ike will recurve. It's a matter of where based on the strength of the ridge in 5 days or so and where the western periphery ends up being. One thing I don't see is a cold front which typically seals the deal. So I watch with reasonable concern a forecast Cat. 4 making it's way across the Atlantic towards the Florida straits.

[Rainband]

I am not liking the 1935 analog at all. I hope this goes fishing

[wxman57]

If this was asked and answered on a previous page sorry for asking again but Derek is saying a stronger storm will go west and I thought with it was the oppisite that it would go north. Is the direction based on each individual storm and the current conditions?

In this case, I think a stronger storm would have a better chance of catching the upper trof that's passing to its north early next week and heading north more quickly. We were talking about it at work today. My coworker wasn't sure if the passing trof would be strong enough to pick up Ike. A stronger Ike would give it a better shot at going north.

[RL3AO]

It's too far out for recon I believe.

Its close enough now.

Ike is only 700 miles from St. Croix and Hanna is 500 miles from Homestead. They plane that was in Hanna looked like it was going to land in St. Croix. Maybe they will send it into Ike tomorrow. But they will probably wait until Friday as scheduled.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z NAM builds the ridge to the north of Ike much stronger than previous runs..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well that an interesting Nam run Vortex..LOL

Looks like moving blood stains..

[artist]

00Z NAM builds the ridge to the north of Ike much stronger than previous runs..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I do not like this run at all!

[wxman57]

00Z NAM builds the ridge to the north of Ike much stronger than previous runs..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The NAM is probably the only model out there that can't beat Climatology and Persistence (CLP5).

For more on models, I suggest reading this excellent write-up:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[Air Force Met]

The problem is though, the GFS has this far too weak and it does not properly respond to the deep layer ridge. That's why I totally chucked the GFS

But Derek...if the GFS had it stronger...it would respond even more to the break. The ridging is forecast to be stronger in the lower levels than in the mid and upper levels (by the GFS.)

The issue in not whether or not the GFS has a strong or weak system. It really doesn't matter. The issue is whether or not the break will be where it is forecasting it to be. The fact that the GFS is pulling Ike into that break...as weak as it is...shows how big a break it is forecasting.

For the record: I think the break is too big and too far east.

[Stormcenter]

Ike is either going to pay a visit to East coast or out to sea.
The GOM scenario is fading fast.

[srainhoutx]

I am not liking the 1935 analog at all. I hope this goes fishing

Myself as well. Has the makings of a very bad experience in the SE Bahamas and potentially the FL Keys.

[Evil Jeremy]

Pro-mets are disagreeing tonight. I like the diffrent opinions lol. I am going to watch Ike very carefully, and act as it is coming my way until the 3 day cone reaches the Carolinas or goes out to sea.

[Derek Ortt]

The problem is though, the GFS has this far too weak and it does not properly respond to the deep layer ridge. That's why I totally chucked the GFS

But Derek...if the GFS had it stronger...it would respond even more to the break. The ridging is forecast to be stronger in the lower levels than in the mid and upper levels (by the GFS.)

The issue in not whether or not the GFS has a strong or weak system. It really doesn't matter. The issue is whether or not the break will be where it is forecasting it to be. The fact that the GFS is pulling Ike into that break...as weak as it is...shows how big a break it is forecasting.

For the record: I think the break is too big and too far east.

I concede the weakness. My concern is though that it will be farther west before it feels that weakness. That seems to be what the strong solutions are indicating (HWRF, GFDL, CMC, NOGAPS)

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the 00z run of the models will be very interesting, as it will run with the higher than previously estimated intensity.