ATL: IKE Discussion

[jopatura]

Travis Herzog on KTRK is predicting landfall around San Luis Pass between Freeport and Galveston because of how the pressures are dropping near the coast. That's possibly the worst place for it to hit.

[southerngale]

2pm CDT conditions...still worse in new orleans than houston proper
...shows that windfield is not uniform in extent in all quadrants of storm

N.O. INTL ARPT SE26G49
N.O. LAKEFRONT SE36G46
HOUSTON BUSH NE21
HOUSTON HOBBY NE21G32
PORT ARTHUR NE36G53
GALVESTON NOT AVBL

Dang... higher in Port Arthur already than I thought.

Officials were driving around parts of Jefferson County using their public address systems to warn those who stayed to get out.

[BigB0882]

Well my aunt and uncle are definitely looking at losing their beach front house on Crystal Beach. I just don't see how they wont. They have a good attitude about it though, they said they have been looking to remodel it so Ike will just give them a head start.

[Texas Snowman]

From the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy, Eric Berger.

Read carefully the middle portion of this story.

-----

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _wind.html

Where to? The computer track guidance this afternoon continues to indicate a landfall somewhere along Galveston Island. A substantial northward shift now appears less likely.

As a result, the primary issue remains the fate of Galveston Island and the upper Texas coast, all of which faces a substantial storm surge. The following story, which I wrote in 2005, characterizes the vulnerability of Galveston. Although the island doesn't face a category 4 hurricane, the surge Ike should produce will be nearly that strong.

Consider this quote from the city's mayor, who apparently didn't recall these remarks as she only called for a mandatory evacuation yesterday:

By the reckoning of public officials who safeguard the island, Galveston residents would have only one defense from a storm like Katrina: evacuation. Such a storm, said Eliot Jennings, Galveston County's emergency management coordinator, would do a "whole lot of damage."

The island city's mayor, Lyda Ann Thomas, went further.

"I think the island would be destroyed, wiped out," she said. "There wouldn't be anything left. I do think Galvestonians are paying attention to what happened, and people who thought they might not evacuate will now think twice before they decide whether to leave the island."

While New Orleans counted on its levee system, Galveston's sense of security comes from a 15-foot wall. After the great storm of 1900, which killed 8,000, Galveston's leaders constructed a seawall along much of the island's eastern end. They also raised the city directly behind it from a peak of 8 feet above sea level to about 15 feet.

The island now reaches its highest point at the seawall, gently sloping back to sea level at bayside.

A Katrina-size storm would not destroy the seawall, and indeed the wall would absorb much energy from the biggest, crashing waves. But Katrina's storm surge crested at 22 feet, enough height to easily clear the seawall. And the city has no protection from bayside waters.

"The island would be completely underwater," said Donald Van Nieuwenhuise, director of petroleum geoscience programs at UH. "And it's less protected from winds than New Orleans. The only good thing is that, once the rain and winds went away, water would begin to recede."

Such a surge would likely occur if Ike comes in on Galveston's west end. However, if the storm's center comes in just east of the island, the area behind the seawall could escape catastrophic damage.

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[jinftl]

On current heading, it almost looks like a more nw motion would be needed...or at least some wobbles...to get the eye on shore to the right of galveston bay.

[MiamiensisWx]

On current heading, it almost looks like a more nw motion would be needed...or at least some wobbles...to get the eye on shore to the right of galveston bay.

These trends are clearly disconcerting... it is increasingly probable that Ike will move ashore just SW of Galveston, which would imply that the highest surge heights would affect the city of Galveston and Galveston Bay, as well as points farther east.

Goodness...

[Sanibel]

Looks a touch right to me.

[KWT]

jinftl, yep sadly starting to look increasingly less likely that we are going to see a wobble needed to get this to the east of Galveston bay, probably a little more time but very soon the winds will swing round to SE as the NE quadrant moves into the reason and when that happens the surge will increase quite markedly further up Galveston bay.

[vbhoutex]

From the looks of that eye I'd say High Island and Sabine Pass should get just about as bad of an impact as Galveston.

With a current 60 mi wide eye most of the SE TX coast from Sargent/ Freeport NE along the coast will get slammed. Conditions are beginning to deteriorate quickly along coastal areas and slowly moving inland. I'm in W. Houston and we are getting gusts to 30 at this point. Being on the West side of the storm and at least 200 miles from the center still, I am surprised.

Major flooding along the coast to the East of Galveston is ongoing and increasing. Beaumont/ Port Arthur/Sabine Pass will definitely have HUGE SURGE ISSUES with Port Arthur downtown expected to be flooded up to 6' or more with probable overtopping of levee by storm surge.

[jinftl]

Heading at 11am was 300 deg but from 11am to 2pm storm went from 27.2N 92.6W to 27.4N 93.1W....more west than north. wobbles are everything now....and i say that as a usual anti-wobble watcher.

On current heading, it almost looks like a more nw motion would be needed...or at least some wobbles...to get the eye on shore to the right of galveston bay.

These trends are clearly disconcerting... it is increasingly probable that Ike will move ashore just SW of Galveston, which would imply that the highest surge heights would affect the city of Galveston and Galveston Bay, as well as points farther east.

Goodness...

[MiamiensisWx]

On current heading, it almost looks like a more nw motion would be needed...or at least some wobbles...to get the eye on shore to the right of galveston bay.

These trends are clearly disconcerting... it is increasingly probable that Ike will move ashore just SW of Galveston, which would imply that the highest surge heights would affect the city of Galveston and Galveston Bay, as well as points farther east.

Goodness...

An ABC meteorologist (based in Texas City, Texas area) notes that pressures are decreasing more rapidly at Angleton (near Freeport) than Galveston, which would suggest a landfall farther SW (just SW of Galveston). He also notes that satellite imagery supports this view, and I agree in this case.

[Category 5]

This might be Galveston's biggest test in 108 years.

[gubyw1]

Station 42361 has been reporting the same, 91.3 kts 5 consecutive times. I assume the instrument has been damaged?

[Sanibel]

There's your hazy big eye:

[lost cause]

I've been texting back and fort with a friend whose family is staying in the League City area (west of I-45) and they're back near their normal homestead in Dickinson near Dickinson Bayou. She said that the bayou is up 4 to 6 feet above normal and the air has a very strong salty taste in the air. I used to work in Dickinson for five years and I never once smelled the salty air like I do when I'm Galveston.

And the scary thing is the full power of this storm has yet to be realized.

[weatherbud]

KHOU reporter indicating that Galveston may be under water for 12 hours when storm surge over runs the island.

Saw that news too a while ago... Flooding will be a big problem over there for sure. Anyway, Live chat with Meteorologist Rob Guarino about Hurricane Ike HERE

[rtd2]

Heading at 11am was 300 deg but from 11am to 2pm storm went from 27.2N 92.6W to 27.4N 93.1W....more west than north. wobbles are everything now....and i say that as a usual anti-wobble watcher.

On current heading, it almost looks like a more nw motion would be needed...or at least some wobbles...to get the eye on shore to the right of galveston bay.

These trends are clearly disconcerting... it is increasingly probable that Ike will move ashore just SW of Galveston, which would imply that the highest surge heights would affect the city of Galveston and Galveston Bay, as well as points farther east.

Goodness...

bingo!....ANIT-WOBBLE MAN here too,but THIS IS WERE ALL WOBBLES COUNT!

[MiamiensisWx]

I've been texting back and fort with a friend whose family is staying in the League City area (west of I-45) and they're back near their normal homestead in Dickinson near Dickinson Bayou. She said that the bayou is up 4 to 6 feet above normal and the air has a very strong salty taste in the air. I used to work in Dickinson for five years and I never once smelled the salty air like I do when I'm Galveston.

And the scary thing is the full power of this storm has yet to be realized.

Are you still in Galveston at this time? Hopefully, you've evacuated...

[Ptarmigan]

I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

we need the Saffir Simpsons scale and a surge scale, both to be used together in forcasting.