ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[stormy1970al]

I work at the local Target and have to close tonight so I will not be online after 2:30. I also work on Thursday and Friday but off this weekend...(I hope). I guess that is why I am wondering what this system is going to do because if they were to put us under warning/watches (which of course they have not done) things will be crazy at work. I worked at Walmart when Hurricane Opal was in the GOM and I didn't get off of work till 4 that night. I went in at 2pm. What a night! I hope that doesn't happen this week. Thank goodness we are a smaller store and close at 10pm.

I guess that is why I am wondering what is going to happen because with my job and my husband working two jobs if we have to take care of things around the house it is going to be done late. I will keep in tune to storm 2k when I get off tonight.

[CronkPSU]

I'm Apopka, FL

I got .08 inch of rain yesterday and today sofar .18 inch of rain

yesterday graph

what part of Apopka? we've gotten a lot more than today

been raining pretty hard most of the day here at Camp Wewa but the worst of it was still that first feeder band Monday

[dixiebreeze]

I do think Fay will be paying us a visit on the Gulf coast. Pressure here in Citrus County is 29.79 and falling.

Ocala is 29.77 and falling and that's between us and Fay in the middle of the state.

[tolakram]

Here's a close-up of my GARP screen with surface plots and visible satellite. Note the WNW winds now at the Shuttle Launch Facility, indicating the center has moved a little north in the past few hours. That observation has been from the ENE all morning. Also note the highest wind I've seen reported so far just offshore - 40 kts.

Thanks.

This station on the south end of the cape is showing a pressure rise and again. Maybe she'll keep moving this time.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MTRDF1

[BigA]

I'll concur on the northward drift based on radar and visible imagery. Also, the buoy 20 miles off Cape Canaveral is reporting gusts to 58 mph, with sustained of about 45

[KWT]

Seems like its just offshore looking at those obs, close enough to land so that strengthening won't take place but still looks like the drift north continues.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
It might be my eyes, but it looks like she wobbled west on the last few images.

Looks maybe like a NNW drift.

[Downdraft]

For years I've always gotten irked at posters in here who tend dismiss and blow off weaker systems such as depressions and tropical storms. Well the next time you feel like saying that try to remember reading this excerpt from the local hurricane statement issued by NWSO Melbourne, Florida.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THIS IS A HISTORIC AND HAZARDOUS RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA!
LIFE AND PROPERTY ARE IN JEOPARDY!

THERE IS AN EXTREME THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL
AREA FROM HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS TO WELL EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BREVARD AND EAST OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING
NO SIGNS THAT THE STRONG SQUALL OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND
NORTH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IS WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN
CORES ARE SHIFTING ABIT AS FAY WOBBLES AND CREEPS FORWARD. THIS
SQUALL...SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING IN PARTS
OF MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY AND NEARBY TOWNS AND NEIGHBORHOODS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH AS MUCH AS 30 INCHES FOR EVENT
TOTALS...WITH ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON!

AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...RAIN TOTALS HAVE REACHED
16.46 INCHES SO FAR...AND IT CONTINUES TO RAIN. IN PARTS OF NORTH
MELBOURNE...NEARLY 25 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN...NOW...FOR AN EXTREME IMPACT FROM INLAND
FLOODING! SCATTERED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOODING...AMONG
MANY LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IN BREVARD AND EAST
OSCEOLA COUNTIES! FLOODING WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED IN LOW
LYING SPOTS AND NEAR PONDS AND LAKES!

TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY! DO NOT GO OUT ONTO
THE ROADWAYS...AS DRAINAGE DITCHES AND RETENTION PONDS ARE
OVERFLOWING IN BREVARD COUNTY! THE ROADS ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND
IT IS VERY DANGEROUS TO DRIVE! DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS PLACES WHERE
WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT!

IF YOU HAVE A LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

IF YOU NEED GUIDANCE ON WHAT TO DO IF WATER THREATENS YOUR
HOME...CONTACT CITY OR COUNTY OFFICIALS WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

HEED THE WORD OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IF YOU ARE TOLD TO EVACUATE.

FAY CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY
BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL FAY RESUMES APPRECIABLE FORWARD MOTION.
HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY IN THE SAME
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

DURING MAJOR INLAND FLOODING...AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES CAN
OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SMALL STREAMS...
CREEKS...CANALS...AND DRAINAGE DITCHES CAN BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS.
IN FLATTER TERRAIN...EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OFTEN OCCURS COVERING
BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. IN URBAN PLACES...WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE WITH STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOMING
RIVERS OF MOVING WATER. OVERALL...MAJOR DAMAGE RESULTS FROM FLASH
FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION...WHICH CAN GREATLY IMPACT MANY
BUILDINGS AND ROADS...AND PROMPT EVACUATIONS.

RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 10 TO 14
INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER A LARGE AREA...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 20 TO
24 INCHES DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH...AND INLAND TO OSCEOLA COUNTY. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
IMPORTANTLY...MODERATE TO EXTREME FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN
POCKETS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY....ESPECIALLY IN
THE MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY AREAS...AND VICINITY. HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL! ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE!

THE SLOW MOTION OF FAY WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT THROUGH 430 PM
FOR BREVARD COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH STANDING WATER WHICH ARE
IMPASSABLE IN SPOTS.

ROAD CLOSURES ARE VERY LIKELY! PROBLEMS WITH SEWER BACKUPS MAY
OCCUR...CONTAMINATING STANDING WATER. ALSO...CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR POSSIBLE WATER BOIL ALERTS IN YOUR AREA.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER FLOOD
STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE NORTH
OF LAKE HARNEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE STAGE AT
ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY ABOVE THE ACTION
STAGE OF 2.3 FEET...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 2.8 FEET.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL GUSTING TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY TONIGHT BUT NOT UNTIL
FRIDAY FROM BREVARD AND NORTH.

THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF FAY.
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF FAY APPEARS MUCH
LESS LIKELY AS IT TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY CLOSELY.

...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES NORTH NEAR THE COAST...THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A LOW THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES COUNTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE...STORM SURGE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. HIGH SURF AND A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE...TIDES MAY
RUN 2 TO 3 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL MID DAY TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORM SURGE CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
VOLUSIA COAST TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

The true power of a tropical cyclone comes not from the wind but from the energy it releases in the form of rain. People live under those clouds.

[tolakram]

What is this composite loop showing? I notice that what appears to be a smaller center of circulation might be forming east of the cape.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Less than 0.10 inches of rain at my house, Tampa Bay, 110 miles
east of the deluged areas. But it is pretty windy. Gusts easily to
30 mph, with small squalls of light rain and gusty wind.

[cpdaman]

Seems like its just offshore looking at those obs, close enough to land so that strengthening won't take place but still looks like the drift north continues.

i think the main reason it is not strengthening is that the water there are in the 70's , if i realized this earlier today i would not have been as alarmed about her moving over water, (unless she was 60 miles east over gulf stream)

p.s the gulf stream does bend back a bit toward the NNW around just north of the cape so maybe a little boost , but not much IMO

[Lowpressure]

tolakram, I was looking at that as well. I think we need to watch the next few frames to figure this out. It does appear to be a smaller LLC trying to form, we will see.

[tolakram]

This seems to indicate a drift northwest as wind direction is moving from near west to southwest again. Since Fay's afraid of water it makes sense that she will hug the coast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can't stand imbalances in nature. That FLOODING is HORRIBLE!!!!!
Fay needs to move west and stop
flooding the east coast and bring my dry area (dry for a week) some
dang rain!!! Why doesn't that stupid rainband just move west? Some
ridge of high pressure...not kicking in fast enough and thereby creating
flooding and imbalance.

Prayers with those in the path of this catastrophic flooding.

[BigA]

[quote="tolakram"]What is this composite loop showing? I notice that what appears to be a smaller center of circulation might be forming east of the cape.quote]

I was noticing the same thing. Recon will surely tell the tale.

[KG4HPN]

tolakram, I was looking at that as well. I think we need to watch the next few frames to figure this out. It does appear to be a smaller LLC trying to form, we will see.

The rainbands have been trying to wrap back into the middle for about the last hour now. Looks like she's just about got her center wrapped back up again, based on that image. As you may imagine, I've been quite interested in what Fay's going to do in the short term here in New Smyrna Beach!

[KWT]

Yeah there does seem to be a little bit of westward motion on the southern side of the circulation but its hard to say with radar, recon should give a very good indication as to what that actually is!

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Fay seems to be increasing convection just off shore.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I can't stand imbalances in nature. That FLOODING is HORRIBLE!!!!!
Fay needs to move west and stop
flooding the east coast and bring my dry area (dry for a week) some
dang rain!!! Why doesn't that stupid rainband just move west? Some
ridge of high pressure...not kicking in fast enough and thereby creating
flooding and imbalance.

Prayers with those in the path of this catastrophic flooding.

I'm with you on that one! 0.00" of precip over here in T.I. in the past week or so. Could use some of that and would willingly do so to get our friends on the East coast out of that mess!

[jdray]

Baker County schools will be closed Thursday.

Clay County Schools will be closed Thursday.

Duval County Schools will be closed Thursday.

Nassau County schools will be closed Thursday.

Putnam County schools will be closed Thursday.

St. Johns County Schools will begin Monday instead of Friday.

Union County schools will be closed Thursday and Friday.

UNF and FCCJ are closed Thursday.

Per http://www.firstcoastnews.com

All private schools around Jacksonville are closed as well.
Most governement offices in Duval Closed.