ATL: IKE Discussion

[vbhoutex]

Current reports are 72 saved from Bolivar Peninsula so far. Now waiting on larger helicopters in hopes of getting some more out. To say the window of oppurtunity is closing very quicikly.

[Ptarmigan]

the 1900 storm was much smaller than this one

you had quite a few deaths from flying debris in that one that you may not have here, but you'll have a far higher tide

Also, there was no sea wall. 12,000 people died in the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, making it the third deadliest with the Great 1780 Hurricane and 1998 Mitch.

[RBDnhm]

Has rain started in Houston? If not, then I suspect the rise in the Bayou level (Buffalo Bayou) in Houston shown at this site is the result of Ike. This site is way inland of Galveston, near downtown Houston.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?08074000

[TampaBay]

How many Texans will be without power tomorrow. I think Francis was 1.2 million. We could easily see 4 million with out power tomorrow. Small potatoes compared the the pending storm surge but this is going to effect alot of people.

The power company spokesperson said on ABC-13 about an hour ago that their models calculated that 3.1 million will be without power.

[Texas Snowman]

Yes, there is a seawall...and it's about to be overtopped with the center still 120 miles off shore.

I think it was Jasons who said this earlier, but with this, I think I'd forget the SLOSH model values. IMO, it seems pretty clear that the surge is going to be on the catastrophic end of things and I seriously doubt the seawall will be able to stop that or lessen it's impact.

Again, my .02 cents worth.

[jinftl]

CNN says up to 5.2 million. To compare, Wilma put about 3 million in dark in south florida.

How many Texans will be without power tomorrow. I think Francis was 1.2 million. We could easily see 4 million with out power tomorrow. Small potatoes compared the the pending storm surge but this is going to effect alot of people.

[rtd2]

Then what a lesson that would....a Cat 2....with huge surge hitting densely populated area would only rank behind katrina and andrew in $ damage, Changes perception of "Cat 2".


Should be noted any towns along central, eastern Texas as well as W.La neare the coasts will be in major trouble and there will be huge damages, this will be a 10 billion dollar storm at least IMO.

closer to 50 billion

[/quote]

Katrina was a weakening (and weak) cat 3 when it made landfall. I've heard a few folks at NOAA say it may have been a cat 2. So cat2's can do damage and a storm of this size...man guys this storm is huge.[/quote]


What? you got to be kidding...NO TIME FOR THIS ARGUMENT though...back to IKE

[tallywx]

The salty woman talking at the Galveston press conference is exactly the type of personality I would NOT want leading my city in a time of crisis.

[Raider Power]

How many Texans will be without power tomorrow. I think Francis was 1.2 million. We could easily see 4 million with out power tomorrow. Small potatoes compared the the pending storm surge but this is going to effect alot of people.

I think FEMA officials said that up to 3.1 million customers, which equates to about 7 million people, may be without power due to the storm.

[physicx07]

If that 45 percent figure is valid, verifiable, and legit, well...

Darwin will be arriving MUCH sooner than I originally hoped... hopefully, those people will still survive, and they must be well prepared.

Do you mean Darwin as in evolution theory? I hope not, that's pretty insensitive man. I'm frustrated that people seemed to ignore the risk, but geez...if I had family on Galveston (yes, I'd probably have made them flee) I'd not be happy with what you said. Sorry, but this could be a huge human disaster and I just didn't like reading that.

[vbhoutex]

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

It hopefully won't be that bad as we have the seawall, back then they had nothing to stop the 15-20ft surge but even so the water will clearly flood over the top of the sea wall and flood the city quite badly I'd expect.

Even if the 17-foot wall is over overtopped by 3 feet with a 20-foot surge, that's 3 feet over the wall + 20 foot waves over the wall. That's gonna drive water across the entire island like butter.

That is not all there is. Water is coming in from the bayside of the island already and flooding many areas. Surge is already around 8 feet in most areas close to the coast.

[Agua]

There's a big church on the island that I think 400 people were ok in during the 1900 storm. The 'last resort' is a school.

I imagine they'll figure out where the highest point is as time rolls along.

[CrazyC83]

45% of Galveston stayed.

Source? That is not what is being reported here. Maybe 20%-30%.

Channel 13 reported 40% stayed. The shelter of last resort is Ball High School. They wanted to get that word out. This is it....the last resort.

Bad move. That could be a repeat of what happened at Lincoln High School in Hugo in 1989...

[micktooth]

I'm watching the news conference. "We didn't know it might come our way" wow, cya to the max. Why would Houston decide to "shelter in place"

Great Link: http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

[MaryEllen71]

The galveston Mayor makes Blanco and Nagin look like geniuses

[TSmith274]

While during Katrina, it bothered me to hear outsiders question our "leaders", it quickly became clear to me that the rest of the country was right... and I was wrong. Thankfully, we learned from our mistakes and pulled off the most successful and smooth evacuation in history. But I just need to say that I cannot believe the same mistakes are being made. Galveston's mayor does look like an elderly deer caught in the headlights... she seems clueless. And to add to that frustration, you have Texas' governor saying that he is satisfied and very proud of the evacuation... that nowhere else in the world could pull off this wonderful evacuation that left probably 30,000 people at ground zero. Good job Gov... you're clueless too.

[RL3AO]

Gavelston blaming the meteorologists.

[Ptarmigan]

The idea of a shelter of last resort is the last thing I want to hear in a storm surge prone area.

[Weatherfreak14]

Bad move. That could be a repeat of what happened at Lincoln High School in Hugo in 1989...

Ah yes i have friends who went through that night...

[Sanibel]

Large annular type eyewall getting sharper and less ragged. Outer winds should start rising now as core approaches:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=HGX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes