ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Rouster]

I think Fay still has more to say. Looks to me like it's getting a little better organized and drifting ever so slightly to the NNE.
Hopefully it either moves N or starts moving W and somehow gets away from the Melbourne area. They've been getting hammered on the S side of Fay.

[JonathanBelles]

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KTBW 200420 AAA
PNSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED FAWN WINDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

                     ...FEAST OR FAMINE...

THANKS TO THE PATH OF TROPICAL STORM FAY SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA
RECEIVED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE OTHERS RECEIVED LITTLE IF
ANY. THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAINS IN OUR AREA FELL FROM LEE COUNTY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE PATH OF FAY THROUGH HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK
COUNTIES.  FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
NATURE COAST MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OCCURRED WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY AND UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
STORM FROM 8 PM MONDAY UNTIL 9 PM TODAY AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

                                                   STORM TOTAL
OBSERVING SITE                      COUNTY           RAINFALL
                                                    (INCHES)
..AIRPORTS:
FORT MYERS/SOUTHWEST INTL           LEE                5.00
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD               LEE                4.20
BARTOW AWOS                         POLK               3.69*
PUNTA GORDA/CHARLOTTE CO            CHARLOTTE          1.83
WINTER HAVEN/GILBERT FIELD          POLK               1.50*
LAKELAND LINDER                     POLK               0.15
BROOKSVILLE/HERNANDO CO             HERNANDO           0.10
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE              HILLSBOROUGH      TRACE
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED              PINELLAS          TRACE
ST PETE/CLEARWATER INTL             PINELLAS          TRACE
TAMPA INTL                          HILLSBOROUGH      TRACE
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INTL             MANATEE            0.00

..OTHERS:
AVON PARK BOMB RANGE (SFWMD)        HIGHLANDS          7.19*
LORIDA - MCARTHUR PROP (SFWMD)      HIGHLANDS          6.66*
AVON PARK 0.8 E (COCORAHS)          HIGHLANDS          5.89*
TICK ISLAND (SFWMD)                 POLK               5.71*
FLINT PEN STRAND (SFWMD)            LEE                5.43*
SEBRING (SFWMD)                     HIGHLANDS          5.21*
CORKSCREW SWAMP (SFWMD)             LEE                4.87
INDIAN PRAIRIE (SFWMD)              HIGHLANDS          4.73*
VENUS (SFWMD)                       HIGHLANDS          4.66*
PUNTA GORDA 8 NE (USGS)             CHARLOTTE          2.39
FORT MEADE (PEACE RIVER)            POLK               1.99*
BARTOW (PEACE RIVER)                POLK               1.47*
NORTH PORT (USGS)                   SARASOTA           0.56

* STILL RAINING

--------------------------------------------------------------------

WINDS ALSO VARIED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LISTED BELOW ARE SOME OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

                                                    WINDS
OBSERVING SITE                COUNTY          SUSTAINED   GUST
                                                (MPH)     (MPH)
..AIRPORTS:
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD         LEE                39        48
FORT MYERS/SOUTHWEST INTL     LEE                38        47
PUNTA GORDA/CHARLOTTE CO      CHARLOTTE          37        47
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE        HILLSBOROUGH       18        35
ST PETE/CLEARWATER INTL       PINELLAS           22        32
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED        PINELLAS           30        36
TAMPA INTL                    HILLSBOROUGH       24        31
TAMPA - VANDENBURG            HILLSBOROUGH       20        28
LAKELAND LINDER               POLK               21        28
BROOKSVILLE/HERNANDO CO       HERNANDO           24        33
WINTER HAVEN/GILBERT FIELD    POLK               30        39
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INTL       MANATEE            25        32
BARTOW                        POLK               26        35
TAMPA - PETER O` KNIGHT       HILLSBOROUGH       23        30


..OTHER OBSERVING SITES:

BIG CARLOS PASS (COMPS)       LEE                43        54
FORT MYERS (COOPS)            LEE                30        45
C-CUT (PORTS)                 TAMPA BAY          35        43
FRED HOWARD PARK (COMPS)      PINELLAS           25        41
ANNA MARIA (COMPS)            MANATEE            30        39
VENICE (CMAN)                 SARASOTA           31        38
PORT MANATEE (PORTS)          MANATEE            29        36
PORT OF TAMPA (PORTS)         HILLSBOROUGH       25        36
EGMONT KEY (PORTS)            TAMPA BAY          28        35
NAVY 2 (C10 - COMPS)          GULF - 20W OF      28        33
                               NEW PASS, SARASOTA
CEDAR KEY (CMAN)              LEVY               26        33
HOMOSASSA (COMPS)             CITRUS             24        33
OLD PORT TAMPA (PORTS)        HILLSBOROUGH       25        32
CLEARWATER BEACH (COOPS)      PINELLAS           28        35
ARIPEKA (COMPS)               PASCO              20        31
PORT RICHEY (COMPS)           PASCO              19        29

SEBRING (HIGHLANDS EOC)       HIGHLANDS                    54
FROSTPROOF FAWN               POLK               31        49
ARCADIA FAWN                  DESOTO             28        42
SEBRING FAWN                  HIGHLANDS          23        37
BROOKSVILLE FAWN              HERNANDO           23        34
NORTH PORT FAWN               SARASOTA           19        34
BALM FAWN                     HILLSBOROUGH       21        33
LAKE ALFRED FAWN              POLK               18        30
BRONSON FAWN                  LEVY               17        29
ONA FAWN                      HARDEE             13        26
DOVER FAWN                    HILLSBOROUGH       12        23


FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING
LINK:  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY  AND THEN CLICK ON THE LOCAL
LINK IN THE CLIMATE SECTION ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.

$$

PRC

[KWT]

Yep convection slightly increasing, I suspect it has something to do with both the fact that daytime heating is now heading towards its peak and also the circulation is partly offshore as well, even if SST's are fairly low they are better then land I suppose.

Still looking possible somewhere gets close to 30 inches of rain before Fay finally gets out of there.

[NFLnut]

Seems like its just offshore looking at those obs, close enough to land so that strengthening won't take place but still looks like the drift north continues.

i think the main reason it is not strengthening is that the water there are in the 70's , if i realized this earlier today i would not have been as alarmed about her moving over water, (unless she was 60 miles east over gulf stream)

p.s the gulf stream does bend back a bit toward the NNW around just north of the cape so maybe a little boost , but not much IMO

And as I stated in another thread, the SST's off of DAB/NSB/the Cape last night were around 68-degrees, so I would expect to see the same tonight as the Sun has less effect. As long as it doesn't move TOO far out where the temps are upper-70s/low-80s, I wouldn't expect her to strengthen much, if at all.

[KWT]

Yeah thats fair enough, it still has a decent set-up aloft which is helping to keep it going and the moisture from the water even if its only being tapped into by half the circulatibon is better then no water at all for the storm.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

Finally some heavy rain bands approaching Tampa
Bay from the northeast. Been very dry here for a week.

Also I am PRAYING the rain dies down over the flooded areas
on the east coast.

[gpickett00]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/george-pickett

I'm in Satellite Beach where we have had an official 12.2 inches at Patrick AFB but more in surrounding areas. There seem to be a lot more storms to come. Flooding is unbelievable for this area. In 15 years of living here I haven't seen anything like it. I'll keep the feed up for a while. I'll be hangin out here if anyones bored.

[KWT]

Eastern side of fay seems to be getting stronger however the western side is still lacking convection a little bit it seems at the present time.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

St. Lucie County schools will be closed the rest of the week due to serious flooding.

~Beth~

[HURAKAN]

[terrapintransit]

That's starting to look really healthy.............

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Gov. Crist was on the t.v. a few minutes ago and he said that there was already one death in Florida related to Fay. Does anyone know what that one was about? I seem to have missed that story.

[njweather]

Eastern side of fay seems to be getting stronger however the western side is still lacking convection a little bit it seems at the present time.

Seeing as this system will never really have the luxury of being completely over water, I imagine asymmetry will stick till its demise...

[ronjon]

Looks like an oblong shaped eye is trying to form just NE of the Cape. If it contracts and convection wraps around it, Fay would be stengthening again.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=mlb&loop=yes

[Sabanic]

Eastern side of fay seems to be getting stronger however the western side is still lacking convection a little bit it seems at the present time.

Seeing as this system will never really have the luxury of being completely over water, I imagine asymmetry will stick till its demise...

I wouldn't say that yet. Who knows with Fay??

[txwatcher91]

Looks like an oblong shaped eye is trying to form just NE of the Cape. If it contracts and convection wraps around it, Fay would be stengthening again.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=mlb&loop=yes

That impossible, fay doesn't strengthen over water She will strengthen tonight or tomorrow as she moves over land.

[BigA]

Per radar, Fay definitely looks healthier than 4 hours ago. I wonder what pressure the recon will find.

[BigA]

Pressure(extrap) of 995.2 found, and not yet at area of lowest pressure.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look like its getting a little better now in terms of presentation on the radar, not surprising given this is half over water and probably given its very slow drift north more and more of the center its getting to tap into it.