#11393 Postby NEXRAD » Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:55 pm
Good evening,
Conditions were windy during much of the night here just west of the Kennedy Space Center. Peak gusts were around 40-mph, however stonger gusts (to 55 mph) were measured at times for areas closer the immediate coast. After 3:30 AM, Fay's center passed close to my location, with winds dropping substantially for awhile. Pressures here fell to 998mb.
This morning, persistant convergence banding has continued to worsen flood conditions across Southern Brevard county. This afternoon, as Fay's center moved farther offshore, stronger banding has developed with activity now prompting flash flood warnings for parts of Indian River county. During the early morning hours a dry air intrusion diminished convection northeast of Fay's center, and this drier air eventually caused shower and squall activity north of the storm center to lessen. This afternoon, however, the dry air region has been steadily shrinking and new moderate banding is starting to consolidate across Northern Brevard county. Composite radar imagery shows cells developing across Eastern Volusia county with offshore activity quickly approaching the Daytona Beach area.
Through the evening hours, I expect that more steady rain will develop across Volusia, and North Brevard counties. If Fay continues to slowly organize, then heavier banding may develop over these areas. To the south, a welcome dry air slot may work towards the Melbourne area lessening rainfall across soaked South Brevard during the next hour or two. However, convective activity over the Central part of the county has begun to show a Sward drift, and if this persists, rainfall will not come to an end. Finally, moderate to heavy rains associated with banding across Indian River county will continue into the early evening while additional lighter rainfall persists across Saint Lucie and Martin counties. Looking north, steadier light to moderate rain is increasing in coverage from Daytona Beach north to near Saint Augustine. As Fay organizes, this activity may intensify. More scattered rainfall will exist across the remainder of North Florida.
Surface observations indicate that sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 are common throughout interior East Central Florida and Northeast Florida. Along the coastal areas from Flagler Beach south to Melbourne, slightly stronger winds were occuring (20 mph sustained, gusting to about 40). During the evening hours, look for winds to slowly increase north of Melbourne Beach to Jacksonville Beach. Winds may become sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph if any heavy squalls can develop over a given coastal area. Winds will be less intense beyond 10 miles of the coast.
As for Fay's overall movement and intensity, look for a very gradual N to NNE drift over the next few hours. Later tonight, Fay will begin to move more N to NW, but the center should remain well offshore through the late night hours. This time over water will allow the tropical storm to strengthen. In general, I agree that the 50-knot peak intensity seems reasonable, however with the latest convective trends visible on radar and satellite showing a rebound in convection east of the storm center and strengthening squall activity, a return to 55 knot intensity seems possible. Watch for any tighter banding intruding within the dry area north and west of Fay's center as a sign that the tropical storm may strengthen to at least 50-knot intensity.
- Jay
0 likes
