Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Shear ahead will be almost nonexsistant.SHIP 00z forecast:

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/15/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    35    38    42    50    59    66    74    82    87    92    92
V (KT) LAND       30    32    35    38    42    50    59    66    74    82    87    92    92
V (KT) LGE mod    30    31    32    35    37    43    50    57    65    74    83    90    93

SHEAR (KTS)        6     4     6     7     3     7     7     6     6     5     8     4    13
SHEAR DIR        231   293   316   343   290   320   202   283   218   266   205   283   236
SST (C)         28.6  28.7  28.8  28.9  28.8  28.8  28.8  29.0  29.4  29.7  29.7  29.5  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   146   148   149   150   149   148   148   151   157   163   162   159   152
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   141   142   142   140   138   135   136   140   143   140   137   130
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C)      14    13    13    13    13    12    12    10    10    10    10    10    10
700-500 MB RH     44    47    47    47    47    51    48    53    55    51    50    47    45
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     9     9     9    10    10    11    10    11    13    13    15    16
850 MB ENV VOR   -15   -18   -20   -21   -21   -31   -39   -38   -19    -2    14    45    21
200 MB DIV        -7    -2    -1     0    -7    13    13    33    53    44    20    26    29
LAND (KM)        116    21    44    77    33    55   144   185   308   450   550   615   715
LAT (DEG N)     18.3  18.6  18.9  19.3  19.6  20.3  21.2  22.2  23.7  25.1  26.4  27.6  28.8
LONG(DEG W)     64.6  65.8  67.0  68.1  69.2  71.4  73.0  74.3  74.9  75.0  74.6  73.9  73.1
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    11    11    11    10     8     8     7     7     6     7     7
HEAT CONTENT      52    15    64    68    51    47    67    55    35    62    65    46    44

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  565  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  25.9 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  47.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  11.  16.  21.  25.  28.  30.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  12.  13.  15.  16.  17.  17.  16.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  12.  20.  29.  37.  45.  53.  58.  63.  65.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  12.  20.  29.  36.  44.  52.  57.  62.  62.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 08/15/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 110.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  26.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  50.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    19% is   1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 08/15/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY         

[gtsmith]

>>I do not see what the GFS and other based models of the GFS see that abruptly turns 92L northward on a dime.

That's because it's all speculative. I'm assuming you've already run the upper air models (or at least 500 and 250). If not, here's the 18z zonal shear 850-200 overlay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I could have it partially wrong, but this is what I see that it's doing: The trough from this week's front plunges further south into the Gulf of Mexico and splits a piece of energy off into the NE Gulf. The eastern side of the trough then begins to lift out off the mid-Atlantic Coast. The piece of the high coming down from Canada that several of the westerly-biased models see coming down is weaker and doesn't sit north of then-Fay until it's about on a line of the GA or SC Coast (you can see that on the MSLP loop). An upper level low pressure then comes in underneath 92L and moves into the SE Gulf.

Not saying that's what's going to happen, just what I think 18z GFS's reasoning is. Ultimately the flow ahead of the trough causes the recurvature up to a point before showing a slowdown.

JMInterpretation

Steve

the very end of that run, the area that is 92L loops (well maybe not an exact loop, but there is a NE to then SW movement...perhaps a stall and jog kinf of thing)....we've seen that before, location is a bit different, being further north than the storm I'm thinking of...and i dont knwo what it means, but it's there...

[Dean4Storms]

>>I do not see what the GFS and other based models of the GFS see that abruptly turns 92L northward on a dime.

That's because it's all speculative. I'm assuming you've already run the upper air models (or at least 500 and 250). If not, here's the 18z zonal shear 850-200 overlay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I could have it partially wrong, but this is what I see that it's doing: The trough from this week's front plunges further south into the Gulf of Mexico and splits a piece of energy off into the NE Gulf. The eastern side of the trough then begins to lift out off the mid-Atlantic Coast. The piece of the high coming down from Canada that several of the westerly-biased models see coming down is weaker and doesn't sit north of then-Fay until it's about on a line of the GA or SC Coast (you can see that on the MSLP loop). An upper level low pressure then comes in underneath 92L and moves into the SE Gulf.

Not saying that's what's going to happen, just what I think 18z GFS's reasoning is. Ultimately the flow ahead of the trough causes the recurvature up to a point before showing a slowdown.

JMInterpretation

Steve

I just don't see it making the abrupt turn though from that scenario well down over eastern Cuba as the GFDL 18z indicates. I can buy into a more gradual turn bringing it in over south Florida but not so abrupt as it shows.

[mattpetre]

BAM models are seeing the current synoptic setup and not understanding that there is a good future chance of the ridging in the ATL and the ridging in the Southern Plains of eventually "hooking up" and causing a totally different scenario for this storm. I personally believe this storm (as weak or strong as it may wind up) will end up effecting both FL and the Upper Gulf Coast (anywhere from Corpus to Tampa) depending on the multiple possibilities of ridge building currently feasible. All the models see a building ridge of some sort but some just think this storm will sneak through it, I personally can't see how that's going to happen now (considering the location of the developing LLC.)

Opinions are only mine and should not be construed as professional forecast or advice.

[canetracker]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008081412&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=Animation

Well there are many different versions of that level, such as the 12z NOGAPS. Hopefully 00z runs will be fed with better data.

[sunnyday]

What is frightening is that some are saying that there will be little time to prepare if the storm is headed for S. Fla. Will someone please elaborate on that scenario? Are they indicating the idea that the storm may wind up in the Bahamas and head for S. Fla. with little warning? One last question--what is the time frame? When should it impact Florida if indeed it even becomes a storm? Thanks so much for your answers...

[Bocadude85]

Still do not have a actual center yet models will continue to flip flop

[boca]

This is the best looking invest without being classified I ever saw.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is frightening is that some are saying that there will be little time to prepare if the storm is headed for S. Fla. Will someone please elaborate on that scenario? Are they indicating the idea that the storm may wind up in the Bahamas and head for S. Fla. with little warning? One last question--what is the time frame? When should it impact Florida if indeed it even becomes a storm? Thanks so much for your answers...

This can very easily change, but as of now the timeframe for a possible Florida impact seems to be centered around Sunday night through Wednesday, with the most likely period for greatest impact being Monday or early Tuesday...

Here are a few of the recent model scenarios...

18z GFDL = Storm makes its closest approach to the state overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp18.png

18z HWRF = Storm makes its closest approach to the state Monday morning into Monday afternoon: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/HWR ... /slp16.png

18z GFS = Storm makes its closest approach to the state overnight Sunday into Monday morning: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS ... /slp14.png

[sunnyday]

Thank you for the explanation, Extremeweatherguy!

[Steve]

>>I just don't see it making the abrupt turn though from that scenario well down over eastern Cuba as the GFDL 18z indicates. I can buy into a more gradual turn bringing it in over south Florida but not so abrupt as it shows.

Yeah, I hear you. I don't either. But the teleconnection for recurvature is there even if the current storms (11noname, 12noname) are weak. Because 11noname passed through S. Korea today and 12noname is recurving east of Japan, it's plausible. That stuff doesn't always work of course, but it does often enough to look at it.

Steve

[Blown Away]

The models are slowly shifting E, 92L may not even make it to 75W before recurving.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have to agree with you Dean. All of the coastal nws afd's say there will be atlantic ridging building in and expanding westward early to mid next week. Problem is don't know how strong or exactly when it will happen. I just cant see a shallow weakness left behind from the washed out trough across Fl and the gom will be able to turn whatever 92L is at that time and pull it that far north IF it is around cuba before the high builds back in. I think the high will build in pretty quickly maybe not be that strong but will build westward in the gulf and keep this system from recurving at the least. Of course this is my opinion and take it for what its worth.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models are slowly shifting E, 92L may not even make it to 75W before recurving.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Sure that is always possible (and would be great news), but I wouldn't rely too heavily on just one small shift in the models. At this time, everyone needs to continue monitoring this situation closely. For all we know, the next set of models could easily shift back west.

[Stormcenter]

>>I just don't see it making the abrupt turn though from that scenario well down over eastern Cuba as the GFDL 18z indicates. I can buy into a more gradual turn bringing it in over south Florida but not so abrupt as it shows.

Yeah, I hear you. I don't either. But the teleconnection for recurvature is there even if the current storms (11noname, 12noname) are weak. Because 11noname passed through S. Korea today and 12noname is recurving east of Japan, it's plausible. That stuff doesn't always work of course, but it does often enough to look at it.

Steve

It's going to turn....maybe not as abrupt but it will. The models are locking in. Yes things can of course still change but the models agreement is very hard to ignore.

[sponger]

The models are slowly shifting E, 92L may not even make it to 75W before recurving.

Scary thing is they are indicating a DR miss. Any energy that survives intact and heading for a hook off south Fl is bad news. Until we get a center, probably by tomorow am its all a guess. If I was in S FL I would be preparing for some degree of impact eartly next week.

[ROCK]

I know the CMC is the current western outlier though I noticed the EURO has shifted west some today as well. I believe it plausable that if 92L does transverse PR/DR without some sort of inner core it will greatly disurpt the MLC, causing whatevers left to follow the low level flow. Flow that currently takes in the Carib where some models regenerate it and move up into the CGOM /EGOM. I would not rule out a NGOM and / or Western FL impact just yet....JMO....

[Steve]

Hey Stormcenter,

Operational early cycle 00z recurves between 75-77.5ish.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Steve

[Sabanic]

If 92 keeps drifting to the W - SW then we can throw all the current models out the window as far as where they initialized is concerned.

JMHO

[ROCK]

Hey Stormcenter,

Operational early cycle 00z recurves between 75-77.5ish.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Steve

Hey Steve, those runs do not intialize the suspected center correctly nor do they take into account current motion....

Current Steering:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html