ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jaxfladude]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

Oh................................................................Shut................................................................Up!

Here we go again...and again......

Hey are you in a drought area or like me a tad bit wet?

[HURAKAN]

"Drinking water makes you feel better"

[masaji79]

The east side of Fay sure looks wicked.

[tropicwatch]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

Oh................................................................Shut................................................................Up!

Here we go again...and again......

OK, Florida here it comes again. The question? Will it make it to the GOM. Pressures are falling and the center of circulation appears to be getting better organized and the winds are increasing. The next update could be a little interesting as far as intensity and the future direction of Fay is concerned. I live in the panhandle and I am not looking forward to all the rain that this thing could drop on us. Central Florida and the east coast will probably end up with the highest rainfall amounts when all is said and done with Fay in my opinion.

Tropicwatch

[SoupBone]

So here are the up to date steering currents which now shows a ridge over North Alabama and the GOM wide open. What would stop her from going West/WSW back into the GOM now?

[gurutc]

The first teensy rain band has reached my tomatoes in Columbia, SC.

- gurutc

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170215.GIF

Convection is popping!

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

my guess is that she will max out sometime between midnite and 5 am. and then slowly weaken when she moves NW over a bit cooler waters

currently , she has exceptional upper level divergene, and shear is still low

she has moved partially over the gulf stream, while her center is now over waters deeper and a bit warmer than earlier today

should she stay on a north heading for another 6 hours , i think there is potential for her to get down to 987 mb by midnite and possibly as low 982 by 4 am or so and reach cat 1 intensity (65 knots) maybe 70 (knots) should she wrap her west side
in deep convection (even a skinny little bit) this will likely happen IMO.

if not and her loops still look like this by 11 pm then http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

a lop sided 988'ish 65 mph tropical storm is what i think she will reach

[jinftl]

Something is causing her to gain latitude in for the last 24 hours...this is encouraging....
21 GMT 08/19/08 27.3N 81.0W 65 986 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/20/08 27.7N 80.7W 50 990 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/20/08 28.2N 80.6W 50 993 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/20/08 28.6N 80.6W 50 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/20/08 28.8N 80.5W 50 997 Tropical Storm

So here are the up to date steering currents which now shows a ridge over North Alabama and the GOM wide open. What would stop her from going West/WSW back into the GOM now?

[Stormavoider]

The center is trying to tighten up. At least it looks that way on radar.

[LowndesCoFire]

We could definitely use the rain, but we are not near as bad as Macon, GA northward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears that we have a slowly strengthing cyclone. But the western quad over land should make sure it can't strengthen to fast. As of now it is to far north to make it into the gulf unless the ridge is stronger then the "hurricane" models are thinking. But anyways it is pretty normal for them to under strengthen a ridge, so it is worth watching. I expect 60 knots at landfall.,

[Ivanhater]

[jaxfladude]

We could definitely use the rain, but we are not near as bad as Macon, GA northward.

I do not think Fay is much of a Georgia Peach kind of lady...

[fasterdisaster]

Well folks, a 60 kt FL wind was found and the crew says the surface wind was observed visually. Since there's still an hour left before the advisory I'd go with 55 kts.

[LowndesCoFire]

We could definitely use the rain, but we are not near as bad as Macon, GA northward.

I do not think Fay is much of a Georgia Peach kind of lady...

Oh we'll definitely use her for the rain around here. As far as central and North GA...oh well.

[Ivanhater]

Not moving north anymore...she needs to get more north before the turn, let's hope she does

[jaxfladude]

Being on the First Coast, should I be a little more worried about Fay?
Or is Fay doing what the forecast said it might do while over the Atlantic Ocean?

[JonathanBelles]

The first rain drop from Fay has fallen here.

Pictures as of 6:50p, before the rain:

[LowndesCoFire]

TWC just said that Fire Dept in Melb., FL is using watercraft in flooded parts of the city looking for flood victims. In the city!