ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jinftl]

The ridge would almost have to be in a different location than forecast to induce a due W or WSW movement based on the orientation of the storm in relation the ridge....

It appears that we have a slowly strengthing cyclone. But the western quad over land should make sure it can't strengthen to fast. As of now it is to far north to make it into the gulf unless the ridge is stronger then the "hurricane" models are thinking. But anyways it is pretty normal for them to under strengthen a ridge, so it is worth watching. I expect 60 knots at landfall.,

[LowndesCoFire]

The ridge would almost have to be in a different location than forecast to induce a due W or WSW movement based on the orientation of the storm in relation the ridge....

It appears that we have a slowly strengthing cyclone. But the western quad over land should make sure it can't strengthen to fast. As of now it is to far north to make it into the gulf unless the ridge is stronger then the "hurricane" models are thinking. But anyways it is pretty normal for them to under strengthen a ridge, so it is worth watching. I expect 60 knots at landfall.,

So any ideas where it will go or IF it will go?...lol

[fasterdisaster]

I fear we could see a death toll in the dozens when the flood waters start to be drained out.

[tolakram]

I'm guessing she's about to make a turn back inland.



We will see. Over cooler than normal waters at the moment and if the center is moving at all it looks to have a west component to it.

Daytona Beach observations show that either Fay is approaching or deepening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if the ridge is stronger then the models forecast so it can push it more west-southwestward for a time. That is the only chance. Otherwise we will be saying good bye to Fay very soon.

[Raebie]

I fear we could see a death toll in the dozens when the flood waters start to be drained out.

Really? I mean, I know it's a ton of rain, but dozens?

[fasterdisaster]

I'm guessing she's about to make a turn back inland.

She's not. She's not moving west, she's sitting at 0 mph. Plot where the center was before and where it is now and you'll see she's decided to sunbathe a while.

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=


This should atleast go due WEST...

[fasterdisaster]

Lets see if the ridge is stronger then the models forecast so it can push it more west-southwestward for a time. That is the only chance. Otherwise we will be saying good bye to Fay very soon.

Why are you so adamant she won't make it to the Gulf? For 24 hours now you've been seeing north movements that aren't there, and all she's been doing for the most part is standing still. We really don't know what will happen.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We can probably all but forget her getting back in the gulf. The ridge does not look like there will be much due west steering for any long period of time. Also the UL over TX is not pulling up and moving out as fast as forecast allowing the high to expand more westward.

[LowndesCoFire]

We can probably all but forget her getting back in the gulf. The ridge does not look like there will be much due west steering for any long period of time. Also the UL over TX is not pulling up and moving out as fast as forecast allowing the high to expand more westward.

So if Fay gets stuck between the ULL and the ridge..which one will gain control of her?

[fasterdisaster]

I fear we could see a death toll in the dozens when the flood waters start to be drained out.

Really? I mean, I know it's a ton of rain, but dozens?

Well we did see upwards of 100 when TS Allison sat over Allison. Granted, Houston is much more dense than Melbourne to Port. St. Lucie, but 3 to 4 dozen wouldn't shock me. Of course I hope it doesn't come to that!

[fasterdisaster]

We can probably all but forget her getting back in the gulf. The ridge does not look like there will be much due west steering for any long period of time. Also the UL over TX is not pulling up and moving out as fast as forecast allowing the high to expand more westward.

Why? Looking at the steering currents there's not much there to move her north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if the ridge is stronger then the models forecast so it can push it more west-southwestward for a time. That is the only chance. Otherwise we will be saying good bye to Fay very soon.

Why are you so adamant she won't make it to the Gulf? For 24 hours now you've been seeing north movements that aren't there, and all she's been doing for the most part is standing still. We really don't know what will happen.

It has made it almost two degree's north for .5 east in the last 36 hours. It has been moving more northwad...Yes now it is stalled over water and has started to strengthen, with the high becoming more defined. It almost looks like the high is trying to move southward a little, but I'm sure that is just the eye tighting up.

The ridge seems for the moment to be able to produce a west movement. Lets see how strong and long can it last. That will be the factors we need to watch for.

[deltadog03]

Here is the steering map right now...That ridge is not forecasted to budge for a while...This could VERY well push this due west into the gom.

[jinftl]

The NHC has seen these northward movments as well....she is almost 100 miles north of where she was 24 hours ago

21 GMT 08/19/08 27.3N 81.0W 65 986 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/20/08 27.7N 80.7W 50 990 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/20/08 28.2N 80.6W 50 993 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/20/08 28.6N 80.6W 50 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/20/08 28.8N 80.5W 50 997 Tropical Storm

[quote="fasterdisaster
Why are you so adamant she won't make it to the Gulf? For 24 hours now you've been seeing north movements that aren't there, and all she's been doing for the most part is standing still. We really don't know what will happen.[/quote]

[fasterdisaster]

I didn't mean she hasn't moved north AT ALL, but .5 degrees isn't going to determine whether or not she gets in. If she moves north another half degree I'll acknowledge it'd be almost certain she wouldn't make it.

[Janie2006]

Fay can't go much further north with that ridge holding fast, unless the strength of the ridge is being over-estimated.

[canetracker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm2&zoom=&time=


This should atleast go due WEST...

Due West or do you think it may go NW/WNW as progged? This storm has me perplexed so I just wondering what is your take on this.
It looks nearly stationary right now to me any way:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Delta and Matt, our local met pointed out that the high is elongated north to south. So while it will induce a westward movement for a while it won't last that long. Also the UL over TX is not pulling out which would of possibly allowed the high to build more westward which therefore would have pushed Fay even more to the west or maybe even wsw. BTW he said the high will not drop further south and slide east over the next few days.