ATL: IKE Discussion

[dhweather]

AT&T is encouraging people to use text messages instead of phone calls.

of course they are, most people have limited text plans and the cash register starts ringing sooner rather than later, someone please tell me att is doing the right thing and giving people unlimted texting

I would hope so. I do know that during Katrina, text messages worked fine though voice calls would not go through. Perhaps they simply want the available bandwidth for voice calls to be available for emergencies (I know, the whole thing is one)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks a lot better on IR right now, huge eye clearing out, with cold convection wraping around. Also on radar shows that it is trying to wrap into a tighter eye, so maybe this can strengthen to 110 and 115 mph is not out of the woods. I don't know if I will "call" this the big one because it is possible for a more powerful cyclone to occur, but this should be very bad indeed for anyone that stayed behind. Lets hope they find higher ground.

[fasterdisaster]

Ed Rappaport just said they are now starting to do the two hour updates

This is because (you probably know, just making sure others do) the entire eye is now visible on radar.

[Category 5]

It looks a lot better on IR right now, huge eye clearing out, with cold convection wraping around. Also on radar shows that it is trying to wrap into a tighter eye, so maybe this can strengthen to 110 and 115 mph is not out of the woods. I don't know if I will "call" this the big one because it is possible for a more powerful cyclone to occur, but this should be very bad indeed for anyone that stayed behind. Lets hope they find higher ground.

This certainly isn't going to be the big one, but it will be bad enough.

[jinftl]

sorry...messed up name of hotel....yep that is where the media is centered i guess.. .reporter turned to windows of hotel and said those will be blowing out soon. now they are talking to anderson cooper in houston....different world...barely a breeze.....for now

CNN Reporter at San Luis hotel in Galveston just said he did not want his crew staying on Galveston but got overruled and is here against his objection. Wow.

Doesn't the San Leon have an old WWII bunker underneath? I believe that's where Galveston EOM is riding out the storm. It might just be one of the safest places around at this point.

[physicx07]

If we see the eye shrinking...watch out!

[MiamiensisWx]

OT: Radar indicates movement is closer to west after the NW wobble...

[HURAKAN]

Looking better now.

[rtd2]

CNN Reporter at San Luis hotel in Galveston just said he did not want his crew staying on Galveston but got overruled and is here against his objection. Wow.

Doesn't the San Leon have an old WWII bunker underneath? I believe that's where Galveston EOM is riding out the storm. It might just be one of the safest places around at this point.

UNDERNEATH? I would be going

[dhweather]

Don't know if this has been asked today or not. But why is the NHC and others having such a hard time forecasting intensity of these gulf storms this year. Not complaining at all, but with Gustav, Edouard, Fay, and now Ike they were preaching about cat 4 sometimes even cat 5 coming through the gulf. Upon landfall they have been a lot weaker then predicted. Are the conditions just not as favorable as thinking, water temps lower than normal, shear, dry air, etc. etc???? Just trying to figure out what is going in the gulf this year. For instance over here in SE LA we only got about 1 inch of rain since midnight. Forecast was for 3-4 with higher isolated amounts through today. Winds have only been in low 30's tops, now almost dead calm. That is way less than what we usually receive from a hurricane making landfall just to the west of us(rain wise)

They easily admit their ability to forecast intensity is poor at best. Given all of the dynamics, its very difficult to predict intensity more than a few hours out.

As for Ike, he does seem to be a very low rainfaill hurricane - Gus was much wetter, rain everywhere.

[Cape Verde]

I am about 60 miles NW of Galveston, west of downtown Houston by 30 miles or so, depending on what you call downtown.

You'd hardly know that Galveston was already getting beat up. I can see the tropical circulation of clouds, but winds are breezy, but not more than 15 or 20 mph sustained, if that.

I've been watching the local news all afternoon, and it's as if Galveston was on another planet. This is 60 miles away, and they're already having gusts in excess of 60 mph.

I'm not suggesting that I'll miss Ike. I'll probably get it quite suddenly. But the NW quadrant of this storm is quite docile.

[Category 5]

Don't know if this has been asked today or not. But why is the NHC and others having such a hard time forecasting intensity of these gulf storms this year. Not complaining at all, but with Gustav, Edouard, Fay, and now Ike they were preaching about cat 4 sometimes even cat 5 coming through the gulf. Upon landfall they have been a lot weaker then predicted. Are the conditions just not as favorable as thinking, water temps lower than normal, shear, dry air, etc. etc???? Just trying to figure out what is going in the gulf this year. For instance over here in SE LA we only got about 1 inch of rain since midnight. Forecast was for 3-4 with higher isolated amounts through today. Winds have only been in low 30's tops, now almost dead calm. That is way less than what we usually receive from a hurricane making landfall just to the west of us(rain wise)

Intensity forecasts aren't really an exact science.

[smw1981]

AT&T is encouraging people to use text messages instead of phone calls.

of course they are, most people have limited text plans and the cash register starts ringing sooner rather than later, someone please tell me att is doing the right thing and giving people unlimted texting

I would hope so. I do know that during Katrina, text messages worked fine though voice calls would not go through. Perhaps they simply want the available bandwidth for voice calls to be available for emergencies (I know, the whole thing is one)

Text messages were the only thing that would work for me during Katrina (in Mississippi and Mobile, AL). My cell phone carrier (Then it was either Alltel or T-Mobile) did take off all charges for text messages and gave us a free month of service on top of that. The only thing that will stop the text messaging is if a large range of cell towers go down where you cannot even roam to send a text. Hopefully everyone has charged their cell phone AND has a car charger to keep their cell charged!

[Category 5]

This certainly isn't going to be the big one, but it will be bad enough.

I disagree... I would argue that there can be more than one "big one."

I COMPLETELY agree with the last portion.

OT: Radar indicates movement is closer to west after the NW wobble...

I see your point, but I'm referring to THE big one, the one where we don't say "it could have been worse".

Looking alot better on satellite, this is worrisome.

[bighaben]

Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?

[NEXRAD]

I am about 60 miles NW of Galveston, west of downtown Houston by 30 miles or so, depending on what you call downtown.

You'd hardly know that Galveston was already getting beat up. I can see the tropical circulation of clouds, but winds are breezy, but not more than 15 or 20 mph sustained, if that.

I've been watching the local news all afternoon, and it's as if Galveston was on another planet. This is 60 miles away, and they're already having gusts in excess of 60 mph.

I'm not suggesting that I'll miss Ike. I'll probably get it quite suddenly. But the NW quadrant of this storm is quite docile.

From my experiences with Frances and Jeanne, conditions tend to be pretty calm until the first rain-shield bands move through, then conditions quickly deteriorate.

- Jay

[rtd2]

Looking better now.

wow away for an hour and the FIST has certainly wrapped around....I hope folks who stayed the best i'm sure we will here many stories of survival and rescue...Praying for all in this path

[DanKellFla]

Just another example of how every storm is different. "Just" a Cat 2. But the windfield is huge and has plenty of time in the gulf to create a big surge.

[dhweather]

On Houston radar, it appears the eye is contracting and closing in - that would not be a good thing.

It also appears that the track is right at due west.

[Rod Hagen]

In some ways, I suspect, the existence of rapid information flow, the following of every twist and turn, etc etc may even add to the vacillation that we see here. In the "old days" the best information local authorities would have got amounted to "big hurricane headed in our general direction" with the simple choice of "lets go or lets stay". These days it is "its heading this way, its heading that way, if it strikes ten miles to the right everything will be OK, its strengthening, its weakening". etc etc.

This encourages authorities (and people in general) to try to micromanage the situation, wait for that extra bit of information, see silver linings where there aren't any etc. etc, and, above all, to try to delay decisions until they know what the "real" answer is (which never truly arrives until the storm does, of course.)

The real time to make decisions here was BEFORE all the information was in. Before it was even clear whether it was going to hit Corpus Christi, or Galveston or Louisiana. Once it was pretty much aimed at Texas, given its size, it was time to make the decision all along this stretch of coast. So pretty much three or four days ago was the cutoff point. Instead we've seen a period of humming and hahing as the final twists and turns have unfolded. People haven't been able to see the wood for the trees, I fear, and it is going to cost many of them everything.

Rod