ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jconsor]

For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay. For example, last evening's run had Fay near 27.2N/82.3W at 00Z tonight (now). That's south of Sarasota, FL and about 135nm SW of Fay's actual position. This morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near 27.3N/82.3W, or about the same area south of Sarasota, which is 110+ miles WSW of where Fay actually was at 12Z this morning. It kept Fay in the same place until 12Z tomorrow (near Sarasota on the west coast) and only moved it north to Tampa Bay on Friday morning. Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

Oh, and how'd last night's GFS run do compared to the EC? It had Fay near 28.9N/81.1W, just a little west of where it is now. I think I'd put my money on any model BUT the ECMWF for Fay.

To get into the Gulf and have any significant time over water, Fay would have to track toward 275 degrees or less from its current location. A track of 279 degrees takes it over water briefly between the peninsula and the panhandle. A track toward 285 degrees keeps the center inland. So the chances of Fay entering the Gulf for anything but a brief period are quite low. Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.

Wxman - you neglected to mention that last night's (00Z) GFS run, which is indeed verifying very well, brings Fay on a nearly due west track and keeps Fay over the northern Gulf for several days. However, the 12z GFS has been verifying much more poorly. The 12z GFS has Fay at 29.2N 81.4W at 00z, while its actual position is over 60 miles to the east-southeast! Heck, the 12z GFS has Fay on the west coast of Florida by 6z. I would be shocked if that verified. I would be very skeptical of the 12z GFS track and any models based off the 12z GFS - i.e. the HWRF and GFDL. I wonder if the 12z GFS's failure is due to model spin-up - it usually takes about 12 hours for the model to spinup properly.

[cycloneye]

20/2345 UTC 29.0N 80.6W T3.5/3.5 FAY -- Atlantic Ocean

[wxman57]

Is it totally out of the question of a south or north carolina land fall??..Don't shoot me..just asking..But she has followed the models pretty well so far..

Nothing is ever out of the question, especially with this storm! But I'd say highly unlikely! I wouldn't mind "some" rain though, but nothing like the FL folks have received THUS FAR. Hope it doesn't last too much longer for the folks down there!

Bastardi has given up on it hitting the Carolinas, that should tell you something. He does appear to have a very strong east coast bias. That same high stopping Fay dead in its tracks should keep it away from you.

[KWT]

Yep looks like those numbers cycloneye shows they are doing a good job on Fay based on what recon has shown thus far.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I posted earlier this afternoon that our met was mentioning the fact that the ULL in TX was not lifting out and weakening as quick as forecast which would have indirect implications in Fay's overall track. I guess keeping more of a weakness in play. Anyway looking at the latest wv loops sure looks to me that it is quickly lifting to the NE now at a pretty good clip. My question is if this is the case would that allow the high to expand to the west and south filling in since the low would be pulling out of the way?

[Stephanie]

I came down here last week for a visit, to see the Cubs play the Marlins over last weekend, and to check on my condo which is STILL being worked on and un-inhabitable from Wilma. I am staying with my elderly in-laws, and was planning on leaving Monday. Playing it safe, I decided to stay and help with their storm preperations, just in case it got out of control. Luckily Broward came out of Fay in great shape, I am as usual in awe of what it has done in Palm Beach county and points north, Brevard looks like a real mess with the flooding. I hope everyone is ok.

I am trying to time my escape back to Georgia, with minimal interaction with Fay, it looks like I will be driving back on Saturday.

I just want to say thank you, for the millionth time over the last several years, for all the great posts, maps, graphics, comic relief, and everything else that we have come to love about storm2k. I can't tell you all again how great it is to have this place to come to, to see familiar people, and hear everyone's opinions. Thanks to everyone on the board, and all the admins that keep it running so smooth. I will be making my yearly contribution when I finally make it back to Georgia.

Everyone stay safe!!
Thanks,
Jim

We're happy that the site has been a good source of weather information for you and perhaps a few laughs on the way. Have a SAFE trip back to Georgia! Thank you!

[orion]

I put a marker in the center of the "eye" (not the best track position) and turned on range rings on GRLevel3 just to see if it would help determine movement. What I'm seeing is the "eye" getting a little larger, but not seeing westward movement. What do y'all think?

First image:


Last image:ftp.orionweather.net

[MCWX]

For those of you who are fans of the ECMWF, it's done pretty badly with Fay. For example, last evening's run had Fay near 27.2N/82.3W at 00Z tonight (now). That's south of Sarasota, FL and about 135nm SW of Fay's actual position. This morning's ECMWF initialized Fay near 27.3N/82.3W, or about the same area south of Sarasota, which is 110+ miles WSW of where Fay actually was at 12Z this morning. It kept Fay in the same place until 12Z tomorrow (near Sarasota on the west coast) and only moved it north to Tampa Bay on Friday morning. Clearly, the one model bringing Fay out into the Gulf is pure garbage.

Oh, and how'd last night's GFS run do compared to the EC? It had Fay near 28.9N/81.1W, just a little west of where it is now. I think I'd put my money on any model BUT the ECMWF for Fay.

To get into the Gulf and have any significant time over water, Fay would have to track toward 275 degrees or less from its current location. A track of 279 degrees takes it over water briefly between the peninsula and the panhandle. A track toward 285 degrees keeps the center inland. So the chances of Fay entering the Gulf for anything but a brief period are quite low. Most likely, it'll move inland tomorrow morning and weaken to a depression by tomorrow night/Friday morning.

As someone who greatly enjoys your posts, please don't take this the wrong way, but are you sure that the ECMWF has been the worst peforming model? I have no statistical data to back this up, but I suspect the ECMWF will peform to date with Fay somewhat better than other guidance in the 72-120hr time frame with Fay. It was one of the first models to suggest a stall, one of the first models to suggest a track back over FL and we'll see how it does with its Gulf solution which is strongly supported by its ensembles.

Also, the 12z run today initialized correctly from what I see and seems to have correctly depicted the current stall just off Daytona. It depicts Fay coming off west coast of FL near 29.5 83.2 0z Saturday. After that it progs a WSW motion which will be interesting to see if it verified. I am not suggesting that its 976 0z Tues just east of Mobile Bay is correct, but I wouldn't be so sure of rejecting a longer track over the GOM just south of 30N vs current consensus schemes which are in more agreement with NHC track. A track that seems to be trending south.

[xironman]

Catastrophic,
Dude, from what I see you got waves in your back yard, that's pretty wild.

[ronjon]

Here's some model verification numbers from Bertha - I know just one storm but I don't have them for the others now.

72 hr error

1. GFS - 70 miles
2. GFDT - 87 miles
3. GFDL - 90 miles
4. UKMET - 104 miles
5. ECMWF - 301 miles

http://www.hurricanealley.net/02LMDLERR.htm

[Stephanie]

I put a marker in the center of the "eye" (not the best track position) and turned on range rings on GRLevel3 just to see if it would help determine movement. What I'm seeing is the "eye" getting a little larger, but not seeing westward movement. What do y'all think?

First image:


Last image:ftp.orionweather.net

orion- looking at the "markers" between the first and second pictures, it looks like a bit of a wobble to the east. Fay's skimming the coast.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Say Fay does enter the Gulf...the HWRF weakens it to basically a swirl (even over open water and further south from the coast) while the Euro strengthens it closer to the northern coast. Is the HWRF picking up on some shear maybe?

[wxmann_91]

Sorry, didn't mean to snap at you. I was just wondering if you'd seen any verification in the NHC post-season tally that showed the ECMWF outperforming the consensus models or other global models. I have observed the EC doing ok on some storms but not others, though I don't have any precise numbers for a comparison (average error at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hrs). So I'd like to see some verification if it exists.

Ask Derek his opinion of the ECMWF.

Not sure if NHC does verification statistics with the Euro, but stats done by a user on another board (LarryWx here) show that the Euro outperformed many other global models by a long shot either last year or in 2006. It was something like the 96 hr Euro verified better than some models at 48 hr.

[tolakram]

Movement looks to be stalled but the pressure at Daytona continues to drop.

[LSU2001]

AL chilipepper,
Looking at the WV loops I would think that there should be some upper level shear over the NC gulf due to the ULL over texas and the persistent southerly flow. That's just my totally uninformed opinion though.

Or it could be picking up on the fact that Fay seems to be quite hydrophobic.
Tim

[wxmann_91]

Yep indeed deltadog03, the ECM is probably the best synoptic model but it doesn't quite have the resolution to do tropical cyclones justice unless they are pretty strong.

The Euro has the highest resolution of all the global models, I believe.

[Stephanie]

Movement looks to be stalled but the pressure at Daytona continues to drop.

Slow downs usually indicate a change in direction. The longer she's over water or hugging the coast, the more powerful she'll become before probably heading west.

[fci]

I fear we could see a death toll in the dozens when the flood waters start to be drained out.

Really? I mean, I know it's a ton of rain, but dozens?

Well we did see upwards of 100 when TS Allison sat over Allison. Granted, Houston is much more dense than Melbourne to Port. St. Lucie, but 3 to 4 dozen wouldn't shock me. Of course I hope it doesn't come to that!

Obviously, I hope you are wrong, as you pray you are too.

I don't see the kind of numbers you are fearing (dozens) since it is not a quick event. Car accidents, cars going into deep water can cause fatalities but I don't see them occuring on land due to floods in that area.

Unfortunately, the insurance claim totals will be high but I wonder if that many have flood insurance?

[expat2carib]

AL chilipepper,
Or it could be picking up on the fact that Fay seems to be quite hydrophobic.
Tim

Hydrophobic Let's give her some expose i vivo therapy. Drag her out to the Atlantic. Drop a sonde with prozac in her core and tell her to go and play in the Atlantic for a while

[Derek Ortt]

Who says the Euro outperforms the other models? You have model verification proof?

Personally? No. But when a different PRO Met says

"i'm a huge fan of the ECMWF, as it has been far superior synoptically over the last year." then you tend to believe them.

I knew I should have continued my self imposed ban from Storm 2k after Katrina. Everyone knows everything about weather.

I was just asking a question.

Later all.

Sorry, didn't mean to snap at you. I was just wondering if you'd seen any verification in the NHC post-season tally that showed the ECMWF outperforming the consensus models or other global models. I have observed the EC doing ok on some storms but not others, though I don't have any precise numbers for a comparison (average error at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hrs). So I'd like to see some verification if it exists.

Ask Derek his opinion of the ECMWF.

Yep... don't touch the EURO with a 10 foot pole, even if deveine assistance provided to the model

It is wonderful for the mid latitudes. However, if has been worse than the reputation that the Canadian has (and most of the Canadian's rep is UNDESERVED) with some of its solutions so far this season (especially with how it spins everything into a monster)