ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[SoupBone]

So a touch of WSW going on. Anyone?

[paintplaye]

The WSW movement may be possible but it most likely is just stationary.

[tolakram]

If the zoom on this storm2k track worked it would be more usable.

[Dean4Storms]

She isn't moving north FWIW.

[Javlin]

So a touch of WSW going on. Anyone?

I do not know about WSW? but is that what Hurakan is showing with pics? one is 22:45 and the 01:15 overall cloud structure or movement looks W.

[LowndesCoFire]

The WSW movement may be possible but it most likely is just stationary.

Agreed.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Basically stationary. Here's last 4 VDM locations:

28 deg 52 min N
080 deg 22 min W

28 deg 56 min N
080 deg 20 min W

28 deg 59 min N
080 deg 27 min W

28 deg 55 min N
080 deg 33 min W

[dixiebreeze]

So a touch of WSW going on. Anyone?

I do not know about WSW? but is that what Hurakan is showing with pics? one is 22:45 and the 01:15 overall cloud structure or movement looks W.

I think the NWS thinks west, too. This just came out. (We're in Citrus):


... Flood Watch in effect through Friday evening...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay area - Ruskin FL has
issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of west central Florida... including
the following areas... Citrus... Hernando... Levy and Sumter.

* Through Friday evening

* Tropical Storm Fay will move slowly west-northwest across North
Florida tonight through Friday night or Saturday. Rain bands
associated with the storm will produce widespread heavy rains
and localized flooding. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are
expected with locally higher amounts possible where the heaviest
rain bands persist the longest.

* Residents... particularly those in flood prone areas... as well
as those living near small streams and creeks... should be
prepared to move to higher ground.

A Flood Watch means that flooding is possible during the next
24 to 36 hours. Residents living in flood prone areas should take
action to protect property.

[Dean4Storms]

Flagler Bch is reporting some 42mph gusts.

Actually they are saying the 43mph gust was in Palm Coast.

[tolakram]

Big eye forming, or just an illusion. Honestly Fay looks more ragged to me.

[rockyman]

Steve Lyons just did a mini-update...confirmed that the longer it sits stationary, the better chance of it heading on a more southern trajectory...with a dip in the NE Gomex...

[sweetpea]

Flagler Bch is reporting some 43mph gusts.

Yeah the for sale sign across the street at another house just went flying across my backyard. Even thru all that, the frogs won't stop!! They are so loud, I can hear them thru my glass doors.

[paintplaye]

Steve Lyons just did a mini-update...confirmed that the longer it sits stationary, the better chance of it heading on a more southern trajectory...

Yep more time to sit= more time for ridge to expand and strengthen = more south movement.

This thing is taking foreverrrrrr

[Harry Cane]

Slightly off topic, but how stupid can people be?
check the video.
http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4117332

you know what i'm sorry if i'm out of line, but this guy is in critical condition (last i heard) and he was one of the hundreds upon hundred of wind surfers out, i think it would be better to stop insulting him as he lie in the hospital.

DON'T WIND SURF IN A TROPICAL STORM. The question was how stupid can people be ... indeed.

Exactly. I don't care if the guy is in serious conditions.
In my books you 've got to be a moron if you try to kytesurf during a tropical storm.

[cpdaman]

unless she drifts NNE from here i would bet that she has peaked.

her movement from 80.3 to 80.6 put her over shallower and cooler waters (she was sitting on edge of gulf stream) water temps where she is now are in the mid to upper 70's ...that won't cut it for more strengthening from here on out (was she 50 miles further E) i think we would have a very surprising situation on our hands (intensity wise) but luckily she didn't sit over the gulf stream while upper level conditions were very favorable. (note when she was SW of naples , she was enduring shear and did not have the upper level divergence that she has had over the last day or so) .

Things were bad rainwise, but i think the daytona beach area lucked out.

[cpdaman]

Slightly off topic, but how stupid can people be?
check the video.
http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4117332

you know what i'm sorry if i'm out of line, but this guy is in critical condition (last i heard) and he was one of the hundreds upon hundred of wind surfers out, i think it would be better to stop insulting him as he lie in the hospital.

DON'T WIND SURF IN A TROPICAL STORM. The question was how stupid can people be ... indeed.

Exactly. I don't care if the guy is in serious conditions.
In my books you 've got to be a moron if you try to kytesurf during a tropical storm.[/quote]

makes sense , except that when you look at the facts, kite surfers need wind (about 15 knots or more) Strong cold fronts in "winter" bring the same sort of gusts that this guy saw in SE florida, were this to occur in winter, people would be more understanding (even if winds were gusting to 40 or more) , if this was a hurricane i would say yes definitely a dumb move, but kite surfers are usally out in wind contions sustained at 30 or so like they probably were down there. This was very bad luck, but if anything was dumb it would be to pick a beach where the street or buildings are so close to the shore, knowing you can get tossed around. kite surfers get taken for rides a lot, i have seen many wipe out's, many guys literally taken down the beach, (thru sun bathers) and that is quite a site, anyway back to fay

[MCWX]

Ask Derek his opinion of the ECMWF. [/quote]


Yep... don't touch the EURO with a 10 foot pole, even if deveine assistance provided to the model

It is wonderful for the mid latitudes. However, if has been worse than the reputation that the Canadian has (and most of the Canadian's rep is UNDESERVED) with some of its solutions so far this season (especially with how it spins everything into a monster)[/quote]

May want to review Franklin's verification report of last season. ECMWF not the best by a long shot, but not the worst either and seemingly better in N PAC basin though that appears to be mainly driven by performance during 1 storm.

[Bluefrog]

anyone else having problems getting into the chatroom .... for 3 nites in a row i CANNOT GET IN ....

[artist]

I haven't been able to get in and have tried from 2 different computers myself and turned off my firewall. Even tried mirc - same thing.

[Sanibel]

It's weird where a system will show its hurricane eye.

Fay has had bands over us all day with steady winds. Even thundered a few minutes ago.

That outsized red IR band over the Gulf Stream is telling you what Fay still has.

"Key Largo" and Edward G Robinson on TV behind me (Hurricane movie).