ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Terry]

No problems getting into Chat. There aren't that many people in there that it should be a problem.

[JonathanBelles]

there are 25 people in chat right now (obviously not that many talking), but there are people in chat with no problem.

[HURAKAN]

[Bluefrog]

WELL I CAN GET IN THE OTHER CHANNELS BUT NOT THE STORM2K ONE ... I CAN DURING THE DAY BUT NOT AT NIGHT ....

[timeflow]

With the storm lingering offshore, rain swath and windfield expanding over downtown Orlando... and NWS forecast for tomorrow of: "Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 86. West southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Does anyone think there may be a chance that Orange county schools might close? I'm hearing this wind outside increasing in gusts... got to wonder if the eyewall and exapnding tropical storm winds might count more than the center track predictions in decision making. Especially when the center is so isolated and insignificant in the midst of such a large eye feature. Tuesday kids stayed home because of the risk to busses. It didn't materialize here though. Now as the storm drifts closer, there isn't any talk about it at all on the news sites I've checked.

[bahamaswx]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

[jaxfladude]

Very slight concern that Fay may get a tad bit stronger...."Fay needs to move back west and inland soon." Paraphrasing one of my local TV Mets...

[SoupBone]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

It is easily possible for her to move SW or even WSW if a few conditions present themselves.

[Frank P]

might be a drift to the NW?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

or just an elongation of the rain band in the center to the NW...

see how the rain band moves from A to D in DAYTONA

then again might just be sitting there...

[green eyed girl]

She isn't moving north FWIW.

I don't believe she is either.

[wxman57]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

It is easily possible for her to move SW or even WSW if a few conditions present themselves.

The high to Fay's north would have to build back south or westward to push fay south of west. The reason Fay has been drifting north this afternoon/evening is because the high is weakening a bit. Trof over the south-central U.S. is lifting out now, so the ridge north of Fay should relax, allowing for a WNW movement. I don't see any reason it would move south of west.

Bed time. My 11th 12 hr shift in a row tomorrow. I'm ready for Fay to just die so I can take a comp day off. My 51st birthday is Friday and I have plans that don't include working 12-16 hours.

[BigA]

Flight level winds of 62(30sec) and 63(10sec) knots recently reported.

[cpdaman]

the trough off the east coast appears to still be digging

the big low over the maritimes is N-S oriented and a short wave dropping down Southerly on the low's west side appears to be causing this.

for whatever that's worth

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

probably not worth anything but wasn't sure if it could erode away the eastern periphery of the mid level high to fay's north , although it may be her southern periphery that steers her

wasn't sure if this could cause the ULL in the plains to turn more northerly as it needs to go somewhere b/c the western states trough is pushing it. i was thinking perhaps the mid level high over the tennesee valley may be eroded from a few ends and possibly build NNE abit into canada. but honestly i am throwing darts at the board

[paintplaye]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

She has already stopped really. She is just sitting there. Also it is not the far north look at the expanded map and you can see she has a good amount of gulf if she goes due west.

Wxman don't you think thought that the more she sits there the possibility of a WSW movement is possible.

[srainhoutx]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

It is easily possible for her to move SW or even WSW if a few conditions present themselves.

The high to Fay's north would have to build back south or westward to push fay south of west. The reason Fay has been drifting north this afternoon/evening is because the high is weakening a bit. Trof over the south-central U.S. is lifting out now, so the ridge north of Fay should relax, allowing for a WNW movement. I don't see any reason it would move south of west.

Bed time. My 11th 12 hr shift in a row tomorrow. I'm ready for Fay to just die so I can take a comp day off. My 51st birthday is Friday and I have plans that don't include working 12-16 hours.

I hear ya wxman57. Happy BD by the way.

[jaxfladude]

Are those bands trying to circle solid around the center? Or is just the storms just going around the center and not be coming solid...?

wxman57 and many more hours of Fay, oops many more years of good health and joy...

[wxman57]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

She has already stopped really. She is just sitting there. Also it is not the far north look at the expanded map and you can see she has a good amount of gulf if she goes due west.

Wxman don't you think thought that the more she sits there the possibility of a WSW movement is possible.

The more Fay sits there, the more time for the ridge to the north to move out to the east as the trof moves in from the west. So probably a better chance for a WNW-NW movement. Look what just moved through Oklahoma/Texas and is now over the MS Valley on WV imagery.

New NHC track in - depression in 24 hours and staying north of the Gulf.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

its bands wrapping around the center and the center tightening up.

[jaxfladude]

its bands wrapping around the center and the center tightening up.

So is the right Emote?

[Noles2006]

She may not be moving very much, but she is a good bit further north now than earlier today. To have any shot in the GOM whatsoever any northerly component to her movement has to stop very soon.

She has already stopped really. She is just sitting there. Also it is not the far north look at the expanded map and you can see she has a good amount of gulf if she goes due west.

Wxman don't you think thought that the more she sits there the possibility of a WSW movement is possible.

The more Fay sits there, the more time for the ridge to the north to move out to the east as the trof moves in from the west. So probably a better chance for a WNW-NW movement. Look what just moved through Oklahoma/Texas and is now over the MS Valley on WV imagery.

New NHC track in - depression in 24 hours and staying north of the Gulf.

... after a brief dip in the Apalachee Bay...