ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ivanhater]

I mean good God, this talk about not getting in the gulf, the middle line dips int he Gulf and is a whole 10 miles from it later, and the trend is south, cant believe Im heairng the chance it "quite low"

[LowndesCoFire]

Watch the loop in slow speed and zoom a little... notice how the western edge of the center goes from the coast line to about 5-10 miles inland.. not sure if its moving towards the west or the center is expanding to the west or what.. just looking for something/anything other than it just sitting there spinning and not moving

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

JASONS has spoken...there is no movement...lol

[Emmett_Brown]

This loop suggests a NW or NNW movement parallelling the NE FL coast... :

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[LaBreeze]

Crazycajuncane - have a "hurricane" drink for me. HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! Enjoy

[Ivanhater]

This loop suggests a NW or NNW movement parallelling the NE FL coast... :

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Shes not moving, notice the wsw movement then wnw,,shes looping in one spot

[wxman57]

Exactly Wxman, now shows it getting in the gulf a bit, and being ever so close and not to focus on that line, I would think you being a pro would advise not to focus on the line and say it could get in the gulf, with that "line: only being just a few miles from the gulf

My track (our track) does take it into the Gulf - for about 10 miles. We're about 1/10 to 2/10 of a degree south of the NHC track. As far as our clients are concerned, that's insignificant. If Fay were to move into the Gulf, intensify and hit southeast Louisiana, now THAT would be significant. But Fay will be a weakening TD when it clips the NE Gulf then and no chance of redevelopment.

[ROCK]

I mean good God, this talk about not getting in the gulf, the middle line dips int he Gulf and is a whole 10 miles from it later, and the trend is south, cant believe Im heairng the chance it "quite low"

Ivan you just got some people that refuse to consider the possibility. Me being not one of them. ..I think Jason B was quite adamant that Fay would never reach the GOM. Havent seen him around tonight...

[cpdaman]

Watch the loop in slow speed and zoom a little... notice how the western edge of the center goes from the coast line to about 5-10 miles inland.. not sure if its moving towards the west or the center is expanding to the west or what.. just looking for something/anything other than it just sitting there spinning and not moving

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

i noticed that frank , but i also noticed the size of her center appears to be expanding slightly to the east also.

I will be going to bed soon, but eager to wake up in the morning to see what fay has done

waking up and checking a storm like this after bed is kind of like entering a time accelerator and flash forwarding 8 hours, and not knowing what you will see, boy i'm getting a bit looney

[eastcoastFL]

i think she is going to go right back the way she came in and just go home.

[Sabanic]

I mean good God, this talk about not getting in the gulf, the middle line dips int he Gulf and is a whole 10 miles from it later, and the trend is south, cant believe Im heairng the chance it "quite low"

Ivan you just got some people that refuse to consider the possibility. Me being not one of them. ..I think Jason B was quite adamant that Fay would never reach the GOM. Havent seen him around tonight... :lol:

That's one positive I've noticed this evening . . .

[ROCK]

Exactly Wxman, now shows it getting in the gulf a bit, and being ever so close and not to focus on that line, I would think you being a pro would advise not to focus on the line and say it could get in the gulf, with that "line: only being just a few miles from the gulf

My track (our track) does take it into the Gulf - for about 10 miles. We're about 1/10 to 2/10 of a degree south of the NHC track. As far as our clients are concerned, that's insignificant. If Fay were to move into the Gulf, intensify and hit southeast Louisiana, now THAT would be significant. But Fay will be a weakening TD when it clips the NE Gulf then and no chance of redevelopment.

thought you were going to bed.... BTW- happy 51st. You do look younger than that though in person....

[LaBreeze]

home being??

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Watch the loop in slow speed and zoom a little... notice how the western edge of the center goes from the coast line to about 5-10 miles inland.. not sure if its moving towards the west or the center is expanding to the west or what.. just looking for something/anything other than it just sitting there spinning and not moving

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

Looks to me like its just the center rounding out.

[paintplaye]

I mean good God, this talk about not getting in the gulf, the middle line dips int he Gulf and is a whole 10 miles from it later, and the trend is south, cant believe Im heairng the chance it "quite low"

Ivan you just got some people that refuse to consider the possibility. Me being not one of them. ..I think Jason B was quite adamant that Fay would never reach the GOM. Havent seen him around tonight...

I agree. Wxman seems pretty confident though

[sponger]

NW looks right, a drift at best

[Frank P]

Watch the loop in slow speed and zoom a little... notice how the western edge of the center goes from the coast line to about 5-10 miles inland.. not sure if its moving towards the west or the center is expanding to the west or what.. just looking for something/anything other than it just sitting there spinning and not moving

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

i noticed that frank , but i also noticed the size of her center appears to be expanding slightly to the east also.

I will be going to bed soon, but eager to wake up in the morning to see what fay has done

waking up and checking a storm like this after bed is kind of like entering a time accelerator and flash forwarding 8 hours, and not knowing what you will see, boy i'm getting a bit looney

I hear ya... I just want this thing to move somewhere as I'm sure everyone else does as well... probably not as much as east central Fl wants it to get the heck out of town..

[green eyed girl]

I mean good God, this talk about not getting in the gulf, the middle line dips int he Gulf and is a whole 10 miles from it later, and the trend is south, cant believe Im heairng the chance it "quite low"

I completely agree IH. I'm not sure where all the certainty against the Gulf possibility is coming from.

[THead]

That IS interesting.......not focusing on the line......nearly half the 11PM NHC cone is in the gulf, fwiw.

[LowndesCoFire]

Have fun to all. We'll see whats going on in the AM. Heck, looking at the NHC cone she could be just north of due west from Tampa Friday morning. Always a mystery until she verifies something!

[cpdaman]

WXMAN one last question before bed?

the ull in the plains is eroding the SW corner of the mid level high to fay's north

causing the periphery of the high to be oriented in a more WNW motion (you can see the change in the last 3 hours)

it seems what looked like a 50-50 shot yesterday for GOM track just changed to about 20-80

finally the question....i would also like to know what influene that pesky East coast trough may have by digging a bit more southward on the mid level high? which it appears to my eyes to be doing. Wxman said the ULL would help the high push eastward but i was wondering if the high may just get squeezed and oriented more N-S in a sort of Diamond shape, WXMAN are you there, or are you in your p-jay's