ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[BigA]

Lake Mary, which is well inland, reported a gust to 51 according to weather.com

[paintplaye]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

We are in Seminole County as well and my kids will NOT be going to school tomorrow if conditions are the same as they are now. No way would I allow them on a bus and I certainly am not driving my SUV in these conditions either.

As far as I know, Orange County still has school tomorrow also. Does anyone know if this is correct?

Haha I know that around here the Houston district cancels school for anything and everything. Once we almost got school and they decided to cancel. Then we had Rita and school was closed for a whole week almost.

[paintplaye]

OMG...just noticed tonight HWRF...GOES SW to almost due west of Tampa...THEN WNW...that doesnt look good...we wont pay attention to that!

i would be paying attention to it

look we have one thing fairly certain right now and that is the s. western end of the ridge was being "rounded" by the ULL in the plains, causing the western perhiphery to indicate a WNW motion once fay is past say 85-86 west. However cancelling a GOM threat based on that discounts the chance she may go WSW first!

nobody has answered the .....at least four times i have brought up the east coast trough digging more , i was thinking this would erode away the SE side of the ridge and allow for a WSW motion

go to the water vapor (it's linked a couple lines down) and (ignore the last frame because the whole globe jumps right lol so "X" out 3:45)

in fact X out everything besides 1:15 and 3:15 (there was a two hour gap between new shots then anyway) now look at SE virginia and NE NC. between 115 and 315 you can see the edge of the trough still making progress southward .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

and this is at a longitude to fay's west, (note the short wave digging down thru new england around the n-s oriented low over the maritime) so that tells me the trough is not done digging, although i don't think it will make much more progess S. west, probably south though on it's western periphery. I think this could be a catalyst for her WSW move, and i'm not sure that models were counting on this. or perhaps i am a rambling moron, (and this is the last time i bring up the trough lol)

Buuttttttttt the longer it takes the more time the high has time to recover. The ULL has been predicted to weaken. We will have to see if it does and if it moves out of the way.

That ULL in the southern plains is decaying and is well on it's way out. You can see what's left of the energy (rotation) in Arkansas right now and headed NE around the ridge.[/quote]

Exactly

[Sanibel]

It's been moving west for a while now. Just very slowly. The system is resisting going inland.

[cmdebbie]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

We are in Seminole County as well and my kids will NOT be going to school tomorrow if conditions are the same as they are now. No way would I allow them on a bus and I certainly am not driving my SUV in these conditions either.

As far as I know, Orange County still has school tomorrow also. Does anyone know if this is correct?

Haha I know that around here the Houston district cancels school for anything and everything. Once we almost got school and they decided to cancel. Then we had Rita and school was closed for a whole week almost.

We were out of school the past two days and really could have gone. The worst for us did not start until about 5 p.m. tonight. You would think that they would have known what the conditions here were expected to be. The NWS states that our winds will be 35-40 MPH tomorrow with gusts to 50 MPH. I thought they canceled schools for 35+.

[paintplaye]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

We are in Seminole County as well and my kids will NOT be going to school tomorrow if conditions are the same as they are now. No way would I allow them on a bus and I certainly am not driving my SUV in these conditions either.

As far as I know, Orange County still has school tomorrow also. Does anyone know if this is correct?

Haha I know that around here the Houston district cancels school for anything and everything. Once we almost got school and they decided to cancel. Then we had Rita and school was closed for a whole week almost.

We were out of school the past two days and really could have gone. The worst for us did not start until about 5 p.m. tonight. You would think that they would have known what the conditions here were expected to be. The NWS states that our winds will be 35-40 MPH tomorrow with gusts to 50 MPH. I thought they canceled schools for 35+.[/quote]

You would think so. I do know that around here they cancel for everything because they have soooooo many kids there is way to much reliability. It seems though that in your district it would be the same.

[CronkPSU]

I'm afraid for my friends right now in Sanford, FL. They just told me that school will be open for them in Seminole County tomorrow. Unfortunately, her eye/eyewall will be over them mostly tomorrow. I just think it's dangerous to reopen school at a time at this. Like, what are inds over there? 40 - 50 mph? That's enough to tip buses on their sides.

We are in Seminole County as well and my kids will NOT be going to school tomorrow if conditions are the same as they are now. No way would I allow them on a bus and I certainly am not driving my SUV in these conditions either.

As far as I know, Orange County still has school tomorrow also. Does anyone know if this is correct?

we do

[paintplaye]

Pretty good and wide wind speeds out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=cdrf1

[CronkPSU]

[CronkPSU]

ERC?

looks like it is tightening up again

[bahamaswx]

Good thing she's not any stronger. That would be a very nasty location for a powerful hurricane to be stalled in.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like gutsy Fay is making one last BIG push to be a hurricane!

[cmdebbie]

Good thing she's not any stronger. That would be a very nasty location for a powerful hurricane to be stalled in.

Amen to that! I am just NE of Orlando and am presently in that bad squall southwest of the "eye." Can't even imagine if it were a "strong" hurricane. Charley was the strongest I have ever been through and it was a Cat. 1 by the time it got to us. That was bad enough and he was moving at quite a pace.

[fasterdisaster]

Does anyone else have an impossible time believing she wasn't a hurricane when she had a clear eye on IR over Florida?

[Innotech]

this storm quite refuses to move anywhere. shes stubborn.

[Cyclenall]

The more Fay sits there, the more time for the ridge to the north to move out to the east as the trof moves in from the west. So probably a better chance for a WNW-NW movement. Look what just moved through Oklahoma/Texas and is now over the MS Valley on WV imagery.

New NHC track in - depression in 24 hours and staying north of the Gulf.

INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND

Not a depression in 24 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

JMO

I believe Fay is now moving west at near 265 degree's at near 3 knots. Give or take.

Also it appears to be tighting up a little. I would expect the recon to find maybe 67-70 knot flight level winds with pressure near 992 millibars. We will have to see.

[cmdebbie]

Does anyone else have an impossible time believing she wasn't a hurricane when she had a clear eye on IR over Florida?

I am with ya! Heck, I am having an impossible time believing she isn't one now. We are on the southwest side and taking a beating with very heavy downpours, I can only begin to imagine what the NE quad is like. I keep hearing things slamming around outside and I am sure it probably sounds worse than it really is.

[CronkPSU]

JMO

I believe Fay is now moving west at near 265 degree's at near 3 knots. Give or take.

Also it appears to be tighting up a little. I would expect the recon to find maybe 67-70 knot flight level winds with pressure near 992 millibars. We will have to see.

found 62 fl already and they just descended to operational altitude

[CronkPSU]

it does look like it has started gaining some northerly components finally

three hour loop