ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fasterdisaster]

I can't remember, how long was Frances stalled?

[cpdaman]

78 degrees is beneath the 80 degrees needed to support tropical development and is by definition "cool".

But the deep eastern band is being fed by the 86 degree Gulf Stream.

tell me about it, she had mid 70's most of yesterday, cept for a short time in the evening she was sitting right next to the GS, imagine if she was 50 miles further off shore, i think she would have been a major with the upper pattern (were she over deeper 86 degree waters) no question IMO

[CronkPSU]

I think she's decided to live here, like someone said on another thread she's Earth's Red Spot.

LOL but that thing moves around the planet at a pretty good clip

[tailgater]

Looks like my old stomping grounds of Middleburg are fixing to get a heavy squall.

[HurricaneHunter914]

78 degrees is beneath the 80 degrees needed to support tropical development and is by definition "cool".

But the deep eastern band is being fed by the 86 degree Gulf Stream.

tell me about it, she had mid 70's most of yesterday, cept for a short time in the evening she was sitting right next to the GS, imagine if she was 50 miles further off shore, i think she would have been a major with the upper pattern (were she over deeper 86 degree waters) no question IMO

Don't jinx her. Let's be happy that wasn't the scenario.

[hazmat]

land didn't stop her from weakening. I don't think water temps will matter much
IMO winds aren't ever going to much of an issue with her...save for some carports & tree limbs. Fays mark will be her water + slow movement= not good for wherever she ends up.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

land didn't stop her from weakening. I don't think water temps will matter much
IMO winds aren't ever going to much of an issue with her...save for some carports & tree limbs. Fays mark will be her water + slow movement= not good for wherever she ends up.

NHC has said that if she were to end up back in the GoM then condition will be at the very least good for redevelopment if not perfect for development ( I added the perfect) . So with that being said if she does end up in the Gulf don't count out winds not being an issue with her just yet!

[Stormcenter]

land didn't stop her from weakening. I don't think water temps will matter much
IMO winds aren't ever going to much of an issue with her...save for some carports & tree limbs. Fays mark will be her water + slow movement= not good for wherever she ends up.

NHC has said that if she were to end up back in the GoM then condition will be at the very least good for redevelopment if not perfect for development ( I added the perfect) . So with that being said if she does end up in the Gulf don't count out winds not being an issue with her just yet!

I don't believe conditions will be perfect. She'll have a lot of dry air to her north that she will have to deal with. If she makes out into the GOM. That is still in doubt until she actually starts to move.

[mutley]

Can we conclude that Fay is definitely moving west now? Looks like it might be.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

according to the 11am that just came out it is stationary still.

[Stormcenter]

Things are not looking good for Fay becoming more then a TS in the GOM. The new NHC track takes her inland after briefly she enters the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[jlauderdal]

according to the 11am that just came out it is stationary still.

they are smarter than we are, they dont sit around making calls on movement based on a few frames, the threshold over there is a little different than it is for us,

[tolakram]

Now it looks like Florida could experience 2 more landfalls. Good grief.

[jlauderdal]

Can we conclude that Fay is definitely moving west now? Looks like it might be.

we can conclude that if the kite surfer was dumb ....than this guy probably went to the same school

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEBbdyWb ... re=related (almost a face full of mailbox)

i hope these guys that go out and play in tropical systems can blame it on massive consumption

[cpdaman]

according to the 11am that just came out it is stationary still.

they are smarter than we are, they dont sit around making calls on movement based on a few frames, the threshold over there is a little different than it is for us,

they made that call which represented the movement for 3 hours up to probably 10:15 AM, me thinks she is moving

[HurricaneBelle]

I can't remember, how long was Frances stalled?

Frances never really stalled. She just moved extremely slowly, about 3-5 MPH WNW across Florida. If you check out the best track for Frances, you'll she that she never moved less than 0.3 W during each 6-hour advisory interval during the approach and crossing of Florida.

[Noles2006]

Well, well, well... is she finally moving?...

I've thought she was about 5 times in the last 24 hours now...

[carversteve]

Now it looks like Florida could experience 2 more landfalls. Good grief.

Take this track here..and knowing Fay, she does not like following tracks..a bit further south and west and oh my..... I really hope not!!.........Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 20 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

[jlauderdal]

according to the 11am that just came out it is stationary still.

they are smarter than we are, they dont sit around making calls on movement based on a few frames, the threshold over there is a little different than it is for us,

lol yeah they average it out over a few hours at the very least yet alot of us here base it on MAYBE an hour of radar data! lol

yep, but i bet we have more fun with all the speculation then they do trying to nail a forecast