ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

>>they made that call which represented the movement for 3 hours up to probably 10:15 AM, me thinks she is moving

They do have her near High Springs/Lake City tomorrow at 8am EDT so obviously they are anticipating the move. It's a matter of time according to the NHC's track.

Steve

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

According to the NHC she isn't however basing it on the radar loop which is the only thing I personally have to base it on it looks like she may be moving pretty much due west.

( I am not the NHC and so don't have all the know how and tech they have so I really can't base it on more then an hour of Radar data. )

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll tell you something...I know all of us love tracking tropical weather and sometimes when an invest is forming in the atlantic and it goes poof and falls apart we gut upset. It's sometimes frustrating to see a good system get going only to see Wxman57 bring Bones out of his box. But in this case I can't wait to see Bones...Bring it on..."IT'S DEAD JIM"... LOL

Someone please put this girl in a box and bury her. If this keeps going Florida is going to detach from the US mainland and float away.

SFT

[ronjon]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

[cpdaman]

the melbourne radar has fooled me a couple of times this morning, make the switch to jacksonville radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

plus i think the NHC is waiting for recon to determine her exact position, it was obvious she moved a bit N or NNW in the last couple hours

[tolakram]

Look at the shape of the eye. See how it's more elongated now? I don't think we can claim movement yet because of this.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

yep, but i bet we have more fun with all the speculation then they do trying to nail a forecast

Well no one is counting on our forecasts to make life or death choices! For them its not about fun its about saving lives! lol

[Derek Ortt]

no TS warnings because they do not expect TS conditions

[Ground_Zero_92]

Squalls are approaching Broward, Palm Beach and Martin Counties. I was hoping we were done with the rain down here.

[Noles2006]

no TS warnings because they do not expect TS conditions

What about a TS watch for part of the panhandle?

(I'm trying my hardest to get out of work tomorrow!)

[ronjon]

no TS warnings because they do not expect TS conditions

derek that'll be a close call especially with the new track. This wait and see attitude is pretty conservative. I know we're not talking about strong winds here (35 mph or 40 mph), so its probably academic but my bet is by tomorrow they'll issue them.

[tolakram]

Hi speed loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

it is moving NW, watch the wind reports as the loop advances.

-- corrected, I said NE.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Squalls are approaching Broward, Palm Beach and Martin Counties. I was hoping we were done with the rain down here.

It's pouring buckets here. Just when I was starting to see my street again.

~Beth~

[ColdFusion]

Look at the shape of the eye. See how it's more elongated now? I don't think we can claim movement yet because of this.

Sure we can. I hereby claim movement.

[jlauderdal]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

the good news for us is they have set parameters and if they thought those parameters would be met than they respond accordingly with their forecast, can you imagine what it would be like if the forecasts were based on the particular forecasters mood at the time

[wxman57]

According to the NHC she isn't however basing it on the radar loop which is the only thing I personally have to base it on it looks like she may be moving pretty much due west.

( I am not the NHC and so don't have all the know how and tech they have so I really can't base it on more then an hour of Radar data. )

Careful using radar to estimate a movement. The large open area (Fay's center) has expanded by 35 miles in the past 2 hours to the west, north and northeast. This may give a false impression of westward (or northward) movement. Look at the observations along the beach to discern any movement into the coast.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

Squalls are approaching Broward, Palm Beach and Martin Counties. I was hoping we were done with the rain down here.

forget it, did you read the miami afd, we have a couple more days at least under the influence, IF it moves west the likelihood of training cells improves for our area

[cpdaman]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

highest winds on NE side, and after she weakens i don't think there is a need for TS warning on her west side. At the rate she's moving she will be lucky to be a weak TS should she cross w-e and the strongest winds would be on her right side anyhow.

also they have time to wait a while, why issue them now if ever?

[Sanibel]

Heavy tropical rain and wind here from the southwest-most band way far from Fay's center.