MiamiensisWx wrote:I think the track depicted by the operational GFS is too far north, and the operational model is displaying its notorious northward bias again. A surface ridge axis is currently situated over 94L and south of the upper level weakness induced by Bertha. Since this system will develop slowly during the vast majority of the short term, a more southerly track is probable. As Bertha begins to move out of the picture as it feels the influence of the H5 cutoff low to its east, 94L will be near the Windward Islands. As mentioned by NDG, a strong mid to upper level ridge is progged to develop over the eastern CONUS and Caribbean Sea. Even if 94L is likely stronger (TS) at that time, the ridging will negate any potential NW movement. It seems more likely that a path through the E Caribbean or interaction with Hispaniola (a compromise between wxman57's solution and my view) is more probable.
Good analysis, but Ill say it again, that 94L is not the wave that the GFS develops. It develops the wave that is further east, that was around 30W yesterday. But that likely makes your analysis more verifiable because since it is further west, there is likely less northward movement available for the storm than if it was at say, 30W. However, the track and intensity will all be determined by if/when this develops. Personally, I think there is a very high chance of development, and I cant see why there wouldnt be, but I have no idea when this will happen or how strong it will get.
