ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, it looks like a ball of deep convection is headed your way from the southwest. Enjoy it!

Tkanks Abajan,yeah absolutely given the sat pic...but really.... strictly nothing here during the night, folks!!!!!
Seems that all the convection has been pushed to the east of the island, and maybe more action will come back in the next couple of hours given Meteo-France. But the alert has been lowered to YELLOW status....

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
63W-66W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

But interresting to note that:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N57W E OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 51W-60W. That means maybe another perturbed area in the hell of 93L with marginal conducives conditions?http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Blown Away]

It appears the Caribbean upper level winds from the west have relaxed this morning. Maybe this is allowing the convection to build close to the circulation.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
OCCASIONALLY THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...BUT DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
HALF OF AN INCH

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY FOR OUR FA IS THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM
WAS NEAR STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PASSING ACROSS OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
PROJECTIONS OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE FA
LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG OPEN WAVE. ACCORDINGLY TO
THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCES A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST
TWOAT FROM NHC INDICATED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEREFORE...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE LAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO TNCM...
TKPK...AND TJSJ. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AND AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTER THE REGION AND MOVES
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO...AND MAINLY IN AND
AROUND TJSJ...TJPS...AND PARTS OF THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE GUSTY
IN NATURE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
IF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN BECOMES STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FOR THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 50 50 50 50
STT 86 78 86 78 / 50 50 50 50

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 200908
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHED PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOTED OVER LAND...AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OF SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM...WITH ONLY BRIEF WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE
PASSING SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THAT ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES.

$$

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 201158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jlauderdal]

ABNT20 KNHC 201158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

our polar bear is really taking notice this morning especially with convection on the increase and shear on the decrease

[Gustywind]

BEAR WATCHING IT

[cycloneye]

Low is around 200 miles South of Cabo Rojo,Puerto Rico.12:00 UTC BEST TRACK update:

AL, 93, 2008092012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 675W, 25, 1009, LO

[HURAKAN]

Convection is still very far from the analyzed LLC.

[Blown Away]

Does anybody see any signs of an LLC near 14.7N/67.5W?? I wonder if 93L begins to develop more will the LLC relocate closer to the convection to the E?

[Blown Away]

Dr. Lyons from TWC just said 93L would move NW and should stay E of the CONUS. Not sure I see the NW movement he referred to.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks better organized than yesterday. Slow development possible.

[Sanibel]

I saw Lyons say that. He said there are fast westerlies over the Southern US that would steer any system east of Florida. Sounds like a "oops, this one got steered into Florida" situation...

Need to fix my computer. Can't get java loops.

[cycloneye]

The question is,where in reallity is the low center,at 14.7n-67.5w,position of best track,or is more closer to the convection.

[wxman57]

Still looks quite pathetic to me. Not much more than a typical tropical wave. Convection remains poorly-organized and displaced well east of the wave axis. Development chances low.

[stormy1970al]

Isn't this system pretty far South than the other storms that we have had...Ike, Gustav. Anyway I am going to enjoy my weekend and not worry about a storm.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,change the position of BEST TRACK as it has changed more eastward towards convection. Is moving at 305 degrees.Earlier this morning best track had it at 14.7n-67.5w.

AL, 93, 2008092012, , BEST, 0, 148N, 657W, 25

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters morning update:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:20 AM EDT on September 20, 2008

Tropical disturbance 93L is slowly getting more organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has moved closer to the center and has increased in recent hours. However, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation on satellite images or from last night's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 15 knots, and some additional slow organization of 93L appears likely today.

Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models now predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This development is forecast to happen near the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico tonight through Sunday. On Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The southeastern Bahamas can expect rains from 93L beginning on Monday night.