ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[haml8]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left middle right post....People In TX will see a trend west people in La/Ms will see a North trend and peoples in florida will see a east trend...

The funny thing is, you are right... I have noticied only the Mets really keep a good sense of objectivity.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm sticking With NOLA to Pensecola strike... So far looks like I'm right. Remember persistence is the key.

[rtd2]

Ah, I see none of the above. A stall somewhere in the north-central GOM.

Dang didnt cover that aspect or the South TRENDERS either

[Sal Collaziano]

You're right! I'm in Florida and this is how I see it...

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left, middle ,right post....People In TX will see a trend west. people in La/Ms will see a North trend, and people in florida will see a east trend...

[Stormcenter]

I'm sticking With NOLA to Pensecola strike... So far looks like I'm right. Remember persistence is the key.

What's going to hit it?

It may not be Gustav if he continues look the way he is now.

Seriously though I see a Mobile to Pensacola landfall right now
if this ever makes it into the GOM.

[rtd2]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left, middle ,right post....People In TX will see a trend west. people in La/Ms will see a North trend, and people in florida will see a east trend...

[/quote]




Sal thats funny

[haml8]

I don't know where you got that map, here is what I found on weatherunderground...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad

[RevDodd]

I'm guessing that other fellow (or Gal, if it's Hanna) is 95L, cut off and drifting south west?

[Noles2006]

haml8 - I don't know if you were talking to Sal or not... but, if you were, you totally missed the point!

[mascpa]

That map was from yesterday, not today.

[jlauderdal]

You're right! I'm in Florida and this is how I see it...

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left, middle ,right post....People In TX will see a trend west. people in La/Ms will see a North trend, and people in florida will see a east trend...

[/quote]

i guess school is out for the day

[DESTRUCTION5]

That map was from yesterday, not today.

That Map is Fake..

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO....Cat 4 just west of NOLA

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082712!!/

[Nederlander]

I don't know where you got that map, here is what I found on weatherunderground...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad

sal was making a point... a valid point at that... lots and lots of -removed- going on here... floridians insist the ridge breaks down and texans insist that it builds in west.... my honest opinion is NOLA still....

[Sjones]

What I don't understand is how Gustav can move into the uppser texas coast all the way to Florida when there is a high that is supposed to be there? Doesn't a high BLOCK a storm from entering?? The only reason that I can see that these models are showing NOLA, MS and AL today is because the high is just now starting to build toward the West. If that is correct, then that would put final landfall in the Central or South Texas Coast. Right? Kindly help me out here, just trying to understand this because I'm confused.

[Jinkers]

I don't know where you got that map, here is what I found on weatherunderground...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad

sal was making a point... a valid point at that... lots and lots of -removed- going on here... floridians insist the ridge breaks down and texans insist that it builds in west.... my honest opinion is NOLA still....

The last place I want it is here in Florida, no -removed- here.

[HurricaneBelle]

Given its current poor state, and the uncertainty as to where/when/if it will strengthen and/or move, all of these models have to be pretty much be viewed as "for entertainment purposes only". None of the models (save perhaps the GFS) had Gustav meandering around Haiti for 36+ hours and counting, and weakening to a low-end TS (if not a TD based on current 31 kt flight level winds). This potentially has major implications for both its short-term, and by extension, long-term movement and intensity. Until it re-strenghtens some and starts getting fully clear of land interaction, these models (especially at the 4-5 day mark) aren't worth arguing about.

[haml8]

haml8 - I don't know if you were talking to Sal or not... but, if you were, you totally missed the point!

I got the humor , I worry the some would miss the dry humor not read the whole thread and miss the point. Some people only look at the diagrams posted and freak out.

Take a look back at the main thread. Derek makes an observation that the storm is having trouble getting organized and will likley not intensify for 24 hours, and all of a sudded that is extrapolated to mean that it is dying and or will be dead (open wave).

Sorry off topic, but maybe we should start a humor thread... if there is anything humerous about hurricanes..

[Meso]

lol wx_warrior.. Is there any way you came up with that storm being a category 4? From the image you posted all I am able to conclude with it is a storm of about 35-40ms... which is like a cat 1 or 2

[Wx_Warrior]

Sjones...Yes, that could be one scenario. And that High could push Gustav as far west as corpus. If he farts around down there for longer than expected anything goes.