ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

UKMET wants to dip Ike into Cuba as well...geez...wonder what the deal is.

[AtlanticWind]

If Ike went due west from here he would hit Cuba, he's currently tracking just South of due west. So bottom line is that the GFDL and HWRF could be dead on by taking Ike over Cuba if the ridge builds in, the track over Cuba would weaken Ike and he would be too far south to feel any weakness over Florida and continue to try and round the ridge once over in the SE GOM. Very plausible runs IMO.

I think the track is plausible but look at the loop he is not heading that way yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[jinftl]

Ike is at 22.8N....the northernmest extent of Cuba...and you have to get south of key west's long. to hit that part of the island is 23.1N. A due west track now would be over water..through the florida straits. Limited land interaction would take place.

If Ike went due west from here he would hit Cuba, he's currently tracking just South of due west. So bottom line is that the GFDL and HWRF could be dead on by taking Ike over Cuba if the ridge builds in, the track over Cuba would weaken Ike and he would be too far south to feel any weakness over Florida and continue to try and round the ridge once over in the SE GOM. Very plausible runs IMO.

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFDL is basically the only model that brings Ike deep into Cuba, and into the Caribbean. The UKMET and GFS skims Cuba, and all the other models (I have not seen the new HWRF) bring Ike into the straits, keys, or SFL.

[Dean4Storms]

Ike is at 22.8N....the northernmest extent of Cuba...and you have to get south of key west's long. to hit that part of the island is 23.1N. A due west track now would be over water..through the florida straits. Limited land interaction would take place.

If Ike went due west from here he would hit Cuba, he's currently tracking just South of due west. So bottom line is that the GFDL and HWRF could be dead on by taking Ike over Cuba if the ridge builds in, the track over Cuba would weaken Ike and he would be too far south to feel any weakness over Florida and continue to try and round the ridge once over in the SE GOM. Very plausible runs IMO.

OK, I'll give you that little bit, but if you want to ignore just about all the guidance now and the NHC who actually looks at current obs as well as models to formulate their track be my guest. It won't take much more WSW motion to put Ike headed for Cuba. I'm not saying that South Florida should let their guard down, but the current trends look better for South Florida for sure.

[miamijaaz]

The UKMET also has Ike visiting Guantanamo. But the UKMET, the GFDL and HWRF all show Ike moving sharply SW immediately, which does not appear to be happening yet, as Ike has been moving due west or just south of due west for the past few hours.

Interesting. What are these models seeing?

[Jagno]

I'm really praying for our Florida residents, South, East Coast and West Coast as Ike continues to be unpredictable at this time. Whether it passes through the straights or across Cuba our Florida folks are still going to be on the NE quadrant which is commonly refered to as the "dirty side" of this major hurricane. Please stay safe and get out when recommended.

[NEXRAD]

To understand the model outputs, it's helpful to look at the IRWV imagery as if the features exist in a fluid field (which the atmosphere essentially is). The big features include Hanna, the subtropical ridge, the upper low in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike, and the trough now moving into the Central Atlantic. Assuming that the ridge does not outright break-down, then forcing from Hanna to the north and the trough to the northeast will have to push the ridge axis more south. While Ike is a powerful system, it is unlikely to be more powerful than the troughing farther north; therefore, Ike alone cannot force the ridge to maintain its position. To the SW of the ridge there exists only the upper low as a major forcing feature, and that low is situated well southwest of the main ridge. The tendency, therefore, will be for the ridge to squeeze southwestward, which also would influence Ike to move southwestward.

- Jay

[jinftl]

agree....i want to see if ike starts to lose as much latitude in next 24 to 36 hours as some models are currently saying however...

Ike is at 22.8N....the northernmest extent of Cuba...and you have to get south of key west's long. to hit that part of the island is 23.1N. A due west track now would be over water..through the florida straits. Limited land interaction would take place.

If Ike went due west from here he would hit Cuba, he's currently tracking just South of due west. So bottom line is that the GFDL and HWRF could be dead on by taking Ike over Cuba if the ridge builds in, the track over Cuba would weaken Ike and he would be too far south to feel any weakness over Florida and continue to try and round the ridge once over in the SE GOM. Very plausible runs IMO.

OK, I'll give you that little bit, but if you want to ignore just about all the guidance now and the NHC who actually looks at current obs as well as models to formulate their track be my guest. It won't take much more WSW motion to put Ike headed for Cuba. I'm not saying that South Florida should let their guard down, but the current trends look better for South Florida for sure.

[jhpigott]

Wow, wasn't expecting that kind of shift south with the tropical models. That's a lot of latitude to drop . . . still long enough out where i bet we see some more shifting

[NEXRAD]

For the models to have accuracy, Ike needs to be situated south of latitude 22.5N by the time it reaches longitude 66.0W. It's worth noting that there are no past storms that I've found having a path similar to the markedly SW track model guidance is latching onto. Of course, there's always a first.

- Jay

[Dean4Storms]

To understand the model outputs, it's helpful to look at the IRWV imagery as if the features exist in a fluid field (which the atmosphere essentially is). The big features include Hanna, the subtropical ridge, the upper low in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike, and the trough now moving into the Central Atlantic. Assuming that the ridge does not outright break-down, then forcing from Hanna to the north and the trough to the northeast will have to push the ridge axis more south. While Ike is a powerful system, it is unlikely to be more powerful than the troughing farther north; therefore, Ike alone cannot force the ridge to maintain its position. To the SW of the ridge there exists only the upper low as a major forcing feature, and that low is situated well southwest of the main ridge. The tendency, therefore, will be for the ridge to squeeze southwestward, which also would influence Ike to move southwestward.

- Jay

Thank you Jay for explaining that better than I ever could. Ike essentially has nowhere to go but on a likely WSW motion for the next day or so.

[Dean4Storms]

For the models to have accuracy, Ike needs to be situated south of latitude 22.5N by the time it reaches longitude 66.0W. It's worth noting that there are no past storms that I've found having a path similar to the markedly SW track model guidance is latching onto. Of course, there's always a first.

- Jay

So true, but then there have been a lot of firsts this decade.

[shah8]

Gustav did it, but he was a disorganized mess after leaving Haiti.

[Sanibel]

For the models to have accuracy, Ike needs to be situated south of latitude 22.5N by the time it reaches longitude 66.0W. It's worth noting that there are no past storms that I've found having a path similar to the markedly SW track model guidance is latching onto. Of course, there's always a first.

- Jay

Betsy 1965. Move Betsy ESE and it is sort of similar.

GFDL must see an elongation of the ridge SW to NE that Ike hasn't full hit yet.

[NEXRAD]

Much agreed, re: firsts this season, Dean. I'm still skeptical of the extreme southern model range, it would astonish me to see Ike actually cross into the NW Caribbean.

- Jay

[AtlanticWind]

For the models to have accuracy, Ike needs to be situated south of latitude 22.5N by the time it reaches longitude 66.0W. It's worth noting that there are no past storms that I've found having a path similar to the markedly SW track model guidance is latching onto. Of course, there's always a first.

- Jay

So true, but then there have been a lot of firsts this decade.

Still it is moving due west right now.

[NEXRAD]

For the models to have accuracy, Ike needs to be situated south of latitude 22.5N by the time it reaches longitude 66.0W. It's worth noting that there are no past storms that I've found having a path similar to the markedly SW track model guidance is latching onto. Of course, there's always a first.

- Jay

Betsy 1965. Move Betsy ESE and it is sort of similar.

GFDL must see an elongation of the ridge SW to NE that Ike hasn't full hit yet.

Betsy looped, however, in response to a ridge pattern transition. From what I've seen, Ike's movement is strictly in response to the ridge axis itself, not a real pattern shift.

- Jay

[Dean4Storms]

Much agreed, re: firsts this season, Dean. I'm still skeptical of the extreme southern model range, it would astonish me to see Ike actually cross into the NW Caribbean.

- Jay

I am too.

[jinftl]

The GFDL shows Ike at 21.9N in about 12 hours and 21.0N in 24 hours from now...let's keep an eye and see where he stands in the morning. That would mean losing almost a full degree of latitude in 12 hours. Not saying it is impossible...just unusual.