Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Didnt Katrina get stuck in weak steering flow and moved wsw into SF..and of course not comparing to Katrina but steering pattern wise?

[Stormcenter]

Yeah there are some slight changes in the lastest GFS run but overall "still" looking good for Fl. and the rest of the U.S.

To me this is not good news for Florida if the storm stalls off our coast.

Oh I agree but only if it pans out. Remember just yesterday it was a different story.
I bet the next run will have it moving again.

[x-y-no]

00z GFS is probably the worst case scenario run. Luckily though we are still many days out, and the model is likely to change again over the course of the next few days.

Yeah, but it is a bit disturbing that the Euro did something similar earlier ...

[rockyman]

GFS Landfall at 150 hours between WPB and FTL...accelerating WSW

Wow, that is eerily familiar to a particular storm in 2005...Landfall near FTL and moves WSW across the glades...

I think we need to take that run of the GFS out and

I was boarding up my house as the storm that we dare not name was moving across Ft Lauderdale...a few days later, the house (and the boards) were gone (Dauphin Island, AL)

[MWatkins]

Its amazing how these runs change drastically from run to run. Frances 2004 type senario.

No kidding Boca. Imho...I think the "bad" runs were the 12Z (Phantom Gulf Cyclone in 66 hours) and the 18Z (disappearing cyclone off of the Carolinas). Seems like this one, unfortunately, has a little better handle on reality...

MW

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS is probably the worst case scenario run. Luckily though we are still many days out, and the model is likely to change again over the course of the next few days.

It does have support from the 12Z Euro...Very similar only the gfs bends back west further south.

It will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit with the Euro and GFS...if they do...

[Stormcenter]

Didnt Katrina get stuck in weak steering flow and moved wsw into SF..and of course not comparing to Katrina but steering pattern wise?

No I don't believe so......Katrina never stalled.

[srainhoutx]

Didnt Katrina get stuck in weak steering flow and moved wsw into SF..and of course not comparing to Katrina but steering pattern wise?

Yes it did. Deja Vue all over again concerning this run.

[Blown Away]

What's the winds, because it will be looping around the warmest SST's in the Bahamas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS is probably the worst case scenario run. Luckily though we are still many days out, and the model is likely to change again over the course of the next few days.

Yeah, but it is a bit disturbing that the Euro did something similar earlier ...

Good point. It will be interesting to see if this scenario is repeated in tonight's 00z EURO. Hopefully, for the sake of south Floridians, it will look a little different.

[rockyman]

GFS 162--emerging into the Gulf moving west

[SouthFLTropics]

This is all starting to sound like a Donald Rumsfeld speech... "What we now know is that we do not know...That is to say that there are known knowns, and there are unknown knowns...etc."

[Blown Away]

What are the winds when 92L landfalls in SFL?

[rockyman]

GFS 174--south of Apalachicola/WSW of Tampa moving west

[x-y-no]

Its amazing how these runs change drastically from run to run. Frances 2004 type senario.

No kidding Boca. Imho...I think the "bad" runs were the 12Z (Phantom Gulf Cyclone in 66 hours) and the 18Z (disappearing cyclone off of the Carolinas). Seems like this one, unfortunately, has a little better handle on reality...

MW

Yep.

BTW, good to see you around, Mike.

Time for me to hit the sack - I've got an early morning.

[Vortex]

This is all starting to sound like a Donald Rumsfeld speech... "What we now know is that we do not know...That is to say that there are known knowns, and there are unknown knowns...etc."

so so so well said

[Miami Storm]

Good Evening,

been around this site for several yr's now. But never posted,had to register again for some reason. But this is by far the best place to get both novice and pro information. I would consider my self at least marginal informed of storms. But must admit this is my first post, and can not figure this one out. It appears to be a TC but as we all know it's not official. I take all the pro mets opinions here serious. Derk, MW, WAX and so on. One min we have a strong High forcing it west or west south west. Into or near S, FLA. Then going off shore North. Then back, someone tell me what hapen to the stong high to the north forcing this west. What has changed, or has not.

[Vortex]

btw, if the gfs is even remotely correct on that monster ridge building in you can take every model east of florida and turn em west right for the gulf after a date with FL.

[Brent]

Well this is an odd run... south of LOUISIANA at 216 hours.

[Vortex]

Good Evening,

been around this site for several yr's now. But never posted,had to register again for some reason. But this is by far the best place to get both novice and pro information. I would consider my self at least marginal informed of storms. But must admit this is my first post, and can not figure this one out. It appears to be a TC but as we all know it's not official. I take all the pro mets opinions here serious. Derk, MW, WAX and so on. One min we have a strong High forcing it west or west south west. Into or near S, FLA. Then going off shore North. Then back, someone tell me what hapen to the stong high to the north forcing this west. What has changed, or has not.

welcome