ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

why does NHC seem to have it well onshore when the VDM from a half hour ago , shows lowest pressure just offshore?

849
URNT15 KNHC 212028
AF307 2606A FAY HDOB 38 20080821
201900 2916N 08041W 8430 01453 9974 +158 +130 215034 038 046 003 00
201930 2917N 08043W 8437 01443 9965 +168 +130 215025 028 046 002 00
202000 2917N 08044W 8423 01456 9960 +171 +130 198019 020 047 000 00
202030 2918N 08046W 8432 01444 9957 +174 +130 183018 018 042 001 00
202100 2919N 08048W 8426 01450 9954 +177 +130 181016 017 041 000 00
202130 2920N 08049W 8432 01440 9950 +182 +130 182014 015 038 000 00
202200 2921N 08051W 8428 01445 9949 +180 +130 173014 014 033 002 00
202230 2921N 08053W 8425 01445 9949 +180 +130 179012 014 026 002 03
202300 2921N 08055W 8428 01444 9946 +183 +130 178009 010 028 001 00
202330 2921N 08056W 8428 01442 9945 +184 +130 173008 008 026 002 00
202400 2921N 08058W 8431 01438 9943 +184 +130 177006 006 027 000 00
202430 2921N 08100W 8427 01442 9942 +185 +130 158004 005 024 001 00
202500 2921N 08102W 8431 01434 9941 +184 +130 166003 004 020 002 03
202530 2921N 08104W 8431 01436 9940 +185 +130 103000 001 025 000 03
202600 2920N 08106W 8426 01442 9941 +180 +130 013001 002 999 999 03
202630 2920N 08108W 8434 01433 9942 +181 +130 355004 006 999 999 03
202700 2921N 08109W 8424 01444 9944 +178 +130 009003 003 999 999 03
202730 2923N 08109W 8427 01439 9943 +180 +130 059003 006 999 999 03
202800 2924N 08109W 8429 01440 9944 +183 +130 086006 007 999 999 03
202830 2926N 08108W 8428 01442 9942 +185 +130 091009 010 999 999 03
$$


maybe they were sick of her and just decided to move her inland them selves.

[hiflyer]

It's harder to make a 2 hr estimate for a center 80 miles across with no identifiable features. However, the vortex message just out, radar imagery, and surface obs put the center right on the coast near 29.35N/81.1W. This is a bit east of the NHC's predicted 4pm CDT position. To me, it looks like it's not moving much now. Fay seems to have stalled again in the past hour. Pressure continues to fall at Daytona Beach, by the way.

You can't judge movement by looking at that ring of convection. The convection is expanding outward away from the center, giving the appearance of SW or WSW motion. The center isn't moving that direction.

Agreed...the center did move wsw originally but is stuck for about the last 100 mins that I have stored with radar....just sitting and spinning....basically just under 5 miles NNW of Flagler Beach....with about a 40 mile center of circulation looking at surface velocity and not precip.

[paintplaye]

The other thing to note is the 270 motion, thats due west and thats whats needed for it to make it into the gulf.

Fay won't be in the GOM for long if she does make it there.

I have to disagree. If it moved due west from now it could be in the gulf for a good amount of time. I think it really depends on where the center actually forms. I have got to say it is amazing it seems like it is becoming better organized again!

[caneman]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Probably an illusion, but I could almost believe a hint of a creep to the WSW

[artist]

good job guys!

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[paintplaye]

Probably an illusion, but I could almost believe a hint of a creep to the WSW

Well again I think the storm is getting better organized so the center is getting tighter. I wouldn't be surprised to see the center do what it did coming on to Florida the first time. This is truly amazing.

[tolakram]

You can't possibly tell anything from 6 frames. I'm using a minimum of 20 and going further out helps too.

I disagree with the NHC position, no way it's that far west.

[KWT]

With the center being so huge Ed and its moving so slowly that its really tough to tell either way so who knows!

Think if its moving its not moving above of 275 IMO.

[paintplaye]

With the center being so huge Ed and its moving so slowly that its really tough to tell either way so who knows!

Think if its moving its not moving above of 275 IMO.

I agree. Also look at the convection KWT. It is pretty amazing how strong it became on the west side.

[N2Storms]

[quote="deltadog03"]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=[/quote]


Please break it down for those of us who don't have a clue how to read these things...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Partly related to Fay, especially the massive rains, if the Canadian and Euro suggestions of a big hurricane a week to ten days away heading towards Florida or the Southeast verifies, I suspect the rivers might not be fully down and the soils will still be saturated.


I know Lake Okeechobee is still a touch below normal levels, but it has to be a tough decision, as to whether to try to lower levels that are just recovering from dry weather and a mis-estimation of what levels should be. Water will be flowing down the Kissimmee water shead towards the lake for a while.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Partly related to Fay, especially the massive rains, if the Canadian and Euro suggestions of a big hurricane a week to ten days away heading towards Florida or the Southeast verifies, I suspect the rivers might not be fully down and the soils will still be saturated.


I know Lake Okeechobee is still a touch below normal levels, but it has to be a tough decision, as to whether to try to lower levels that are just recovering from dry weather and a mis-estimation of what levels should be. Water will be flowing down the Kissimmee water shead towards the lake for a while.

But it's still down 2 feet from where it should be in the Lake. 2 feet is alot of water. Releasing water is what got us into this mess to begin with.

~Beth~

[BigA]

I agree. Also look at the convection KWT. It is pretty amazing how strong it became on the west side.

The buoy 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral recently reported a gust to 72 mph. I'm in Winter Springs in Seminole County and it is howling out there, gusts to tropical storm force...reminds me of Frances.

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

Please look at the NHC's 5 day projected track. I'm going with what the big boys say for a change.

[cmdebbie]

I'm in Winter Springs in Seminole County and it is howling out there, gusts to tropical storm force...reminds me of Frances.

Same here in Oviedo. Just in time for rush hour traffic...oh what fun I hope my husband makes it home safely.

[Sabanic]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

Please look at the NHC's 5 day projected track. I'm going with what the big boys say for a change.

I agree but the BIG BOYS have been adjusting their track southward for over a day now, and will more than likely have to do so agin.

[paintplaye]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

Please look at the NHC's 5 day projected track. I'm going with what the big boys say for a change.

I agree but the BIG BOYS have been adjusting their track southward for over a day now, and will more than likely have to do so agin.

Agree. Look at the GFDL two days ago it was so much farther north than it is now.

[cpdaman]

I agree. Also look at the convection KWT. It is pretty amazing how strong it became on the west side.

The buoy 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral recently reported a gust to 72 mph. I'm in Winter Springs in Seminole County and it is howling out there, gusts to tropical storm force...reminds me of Frances.

that gust doesn't jive with the data, my guess is it was 32knots.