ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Agua]

Guess I've got a south blindness but I've seen nothing other than WNW with lurches north.

[edited to include:] all day long, that is.

[BigA]

I agree. Also look at the convection KWT. It is pretty amazing how strong it became on the west side.

The buoy 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral recently reported a gust to 72 mph. I'm in Winter Springs in Seminole County and it is howling out there, gusts to tropical storm force...reminds me of Frances.

that gust doesn't jive with the data, my guess is it was 32knots.

You are right, and in any case, that is, of course, on the east side.

[deltadog03]

Ok, here is something that I put together....I think explains itself very good. Some people have to realize that the radar beam is NOT at the SFC...You are shooting that beam upwards of 11,000+ feet into that big circle...High res VIS clearly shows the LLC spinning right on the coast. I think NHC jumped the gun on the moving west at 5mph...

[hiflyer]

Based on radar the path last 90 mins has been at 245 degrees....won't hold as nothng with Fay has but xtrap on it would be Crystal River.

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

Please look at the NHC's 5 day projected track. I'm going with what the big boys say for a change.

I agree but the BIG BOYS have been adjusting their track southward for over a day now, and will more than likely have to do so agin.

I'm not so sure this time around I think they pretty much have locked into a track across
the extreme northern GOM and then inland. Oh sure she may move a little futher south but not enough to concern the NHC. Well at least that's the feeling I got from reading their lastest discussion.

[ColdFusion]

Based on radar the path last 90 mins has been at 245 degrees....won't hold as nothng with Fay has but xtrap on it would be Crystal River.

uh oh, the 'wnw gang' is gonna get ya now.

[Stormcenter]

Ok, here is something that I put together....I think explains itself very good. Some people have to realize that the radar beam is NOT at the SFC...You are shooting that beam upwards of 11,000+ feet into that big circle...High res VIS clearly shows the LLC spinning right on the coast. I think NHC jumped the gun on the moving west at 5mph...

What direction is she heading in then?

[BigA]

Seminole county is getting rocked right now. Sanford has gusts to 52 per weather.com, and I'll believe every mph of it looking out my window in Winter Springs. We're under the heavy band that is red on the infrared image.

[Stormcenter]

Can you say stalled...again?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[paintplaye]

Stormcenter,

Care to share why you think that it won't be in the GOM long?

Please look at the NHC's 5 day projected track. I'm going with what the big boys say for a change.

I agree but the BIG BOYS have been adjusting their track southward for over a day now, and will more than likely have to do so agin.

I'm not so sure this time around I think they pretty much have locked into a track across
the extreme northern GOM and then inland. Oh sure she may move a little futher south but not enough to concern the NHC. Well at least that's the feeling I got from reading their lastest discussion.[/quote]

I have to disagree. I mean this whole time they have had a pretty good grasp over the storm but after the stall they really haven't had much of a confident idea on what it is going to do. The models continue to shift south and until we see two runs that don't move too much then i think the NHC has as much clue as we do.

[cpdaman]

Seminole county is getting rocked right now. Sanford has gusts to 52 per weather.com, and I'll believe every mph of it looking out my window in Winter Springs. We're under the heavy band that is red on the infrared image.

makes sense you are likely in some of the highest winds. wxman 57 had a post earlier that had data compiled showing where the winds were highest and that was on the SE corner of the storm (that part would be close to you now) enjoy and stay safe

[HURAKAN]

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure: 29.70 in / 1005.6 hPa (Falling)

Here in Crystal River, just a few miles from the GOM in Citrus County. Rain and winds have begun. Flood alert out and county is issuing sandbags.

[terrapintransit]

That looks like a hurricane to my uneducated eyes!!!!!!!!!

[cmdebbie]

makes sense you are likely in some of the highest winds. wxman 57 had a post earlier that had data compiled showing where the winds were highest and that was on the SE corner of the storm (that part would be close to you now) enjoy and stay safe

I dont think we are on the SE side yet since she has not moved very much. Still on the SW side at this point. Correct me if I am wrong.

Yeah, Tom Terry, channel 9 (Orlando), just said that we are having gusts to over 50 mph. Also stated that Seminole County Public Schools are closed tomorrow.

[N2FSU]

Here is a great site with high resolution graphics of satellite/radar pics and models:
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/

[deltadog03]

I still think she is fairly stationary.

[KWT]

I personally think drift is actually the most likely motion right now, its slowed right down again though that seems true.

[oyster_reef]

That looks like a hurricane to my uneducated eyes!!!!!!!!!

looks like a hurricane to an educated eye!

[terrapintransit]

That looks like a hurricane to my uneducated eyes!!!!!!!!!

looks like a hurricane to an educated eye!

I'll even goes as far as to say it even looks like CHARLIE!