ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

Yes, I am a bit too far north... Near Bunnell...

[cpdaman]

Ok Dr. Lyons just said that a new center has been found a tad north of Orlando. Anyone else hear that?

i heard someone say that like a half hour ago, i thought it was steve forbes though? the severe weather guy

[ocala]

Looking at the radar there is some convection trying to get started in the eye.
The center appears to be 29.3 81.1.
Question for the mets.
Why is it that when she was over the ocean the eye got real big but now that she's over land it seems to be getting smaller with more convection toward the center?

[SoupBone]

Ok Dr. Lyons just said that a new center has been found a tad north of Orlando. Anyone else hear that?

That is where it is at. Look at the radar very closely you can see a better center forming about 1-2 counties north of Orlando.

Well this should shake things up a bit about a better GOM traverse right? I mean putting her a bit south would change her projected track a bit.

[paintplaye]

Looking at the radar there is some convection trying to get started in the eye.
The center appears to be 29.3 81.1.
Question for the mets.
Why is it that when she was over the ocean the eye got real big but now that she's over land it seems to be getting smaller with more convection toward the center?

Haha no one truly knows why she strengthens over land...

[tolakram]

Ok Dr. Lyons just said that a new center has been found a tad north of Orlando. Anyone else hear that?

Pressures are low in a very broad area. I don't have access to a professional screen but checking a bunch of MADIS stations west of the NHC 5pm center I see a LOT of pressures below 996

[fci]

Leon schools closed tomorrow... county and state offices open... ought to be interesting...

Now, isn't that a weird combination?
Kids stay home while parents have to got owork for the county or state.
Wouldn't one think that they would synchronize the schedules a bit???

[paintplaye]

Ok Dr. Lyons just said that a new center has been found a tad north of Orlando. Anyone else hear that?

That is where it is at. Look at the radar very closely you can see a better center forming about 1-2 counties north of Orlando.

Well this should shake things up a bit about a better GOM traverse right? I mean putting her a bit south would change her projected track a bit.

I mean it was not a huge change of lat. but it should increase the chances. Also though the storm is not fully vertically stacked so it could be a little farther north than i said. It should go back into the gulf though, even if it is only for a little bit.

[cpdaman]

i'm not so sure no matter what latitude fay is at , that she will get to the gulf

we are dealing with a weakling of a high pressure system to her north

should she be further south , she would be under even less influence from the high.

[Dean4Storms]

If she even wobbles toward the WSW we got problems when she hits those 86 degree temps in the Gulf. This system has been too tenacious to think it won't retain tropical characteristics seeing how well she is structured.

[paintplaye]

i'm not so sure no matter what latitude fay is at , that she will get to the gulf

we are dealing with a weakling of a high pressure system to her north

should she be further south , she would be under even less influence from the high.

The high is not that weak. You do know that? I mean it is a pretty strong ridge actually. If it was weak it would be moving farther north or NW not west

[Dean4Storms]

i'm not so sure no matter what latitude fay is at , that she will get to the gulf

we are dealing with a weakling of a high pressure system to her north

should she be further south , she would be under even less influence from the high.

The trough in the central US is lifting out, the ridge is expanding westward, you don't have to have a monster ridge to steer a weakening TS westward unless a weakness existed within the ridge and there is none.

[tolakram]

Well, looking at this image you can see circulation building northeast of Orlando giving the impression that the center is down there somewhere. Can a pro-met offer up a nice plot with pressure values on it?

[fci]

I think someone made this observation about 20 pages ago; but Fay may be the first storm that ends up affecting EVERY county in Florida. From Pensacola to Key West. Escambia to Monroe and all points in between, east to west, north to south. WOW.

If she affects the NW Panhandle, will there be a county unaffected?

Is this a first??

[deltadog03]

look at the SFC plots

[cpdaman]

what happens should she weasel her way east back to the beach

yes it is weak, if it were strong it would push her at more than 3 mph

center appears to be about 10-12 miles w or wnw of daytona beach

[ocala]

According to radar the center is 51 miles ENE of me.
Current pressure 999.6 MB and falling at a steady clip.

[Dean4Storms]

The LLC in that radar pick looks about where it should be by now, to the WNW of Daytona and moving west with maybe a small south component.

[LaunchGal]

Fay '08

How many stupid/dangerous things can we do in one video clip for YouTube? Let's count them together, boys and girls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfK-DD7msDM

Edited to include: I apologize. I watched it the first time with the sound off. Strong language advisory.

[ocala]

The LLC in that radar pick looks about where it should be by now, to the WNW of Daytona and moving west with maybe a small south component.

+1