ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Geraldo just said gust of 135....unreal.

Yes, it is UNREAL.

[mtm4319]

Amazing, after 36-48 hours of looking like it might, he really is about to move square over the west end of Galveston.

Do you mean the west end of Galveston or the west end of the Bolivar Peninsula?

[WxGuy1]

To me, it looks like Ike has corrected to a NW movement after a jog to the N or NNW that may have saved Houston and Galveston billions of dollars in damage. Again, there is a big difference between the right-front and the left-front part of Ike. Example: RECON is reporting very large swaths of 95-105 kt winds at FL to the NW of the center, while winds to the SW of the center are largely 65-75 kts at FL. Coincident with that will be a huge difference in the surge. In fact, in the left-front quad of the storm will see offshore winds that will actually act to drive the surge DOWN instead of up. Damage will likely still be very, very bad, but that may have been a wobble for the ages for those in Galveston. ENE and NE winds continue near Houston, which is not forcing the water into the bays like was forecast when it looked like Ike would hit SW of Galveston. So, surge in and around Houston may well be less than anticipated as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

As of 12am...

Winds 52mph, gusting to 68mph at Hobby airport.

[fasterdisaster]

ABC13 HOUSTON reporting the Eyewall is making landfall at Galveston Island now, winds 110mph gusts at 120mph- 11' of water currently.

It's not.

[jinftl]

in time, the pain will ease and we will move on...even without knowing

have we once again witnessed the Texas coast causing a storm to tighten? Certainly looks that way on radar.

Yup, and I'm very frustrated as the latest recon was not able to report the NE eyewall winds. I just hope this isn't the last pass because if it is we might never know if he was able to make it to Category 3.

boo hoo.

[Innotech]

I have a theory as to why Ike might be tightening up, and in general why Texas seems to do this to storm.
The angle a hurricane approaches Texas, usually from the southeast, means the strong winds will approach it perpendicular to the coast. This brings the strongest winds inland, and the massive girth of Texas significantly slows the outbound winds on the western side. what this effectively does is wind the storm up as the two sides of the storm become uneven in intensity, and it constricts the eye along with it. Its the angle of the coast.

[fasterdisaster]

Amazing, after 36-48 hours of looking like it might, he really is about to move square over the west end of Galveston.

Do you mean the west end of Galveston or the west end of the Bolivar Peninsula?

Well he's wobbling to the west lately, so he might be slightly east however he is going to be moving over the middle of Galveston.

[WxGuy1]

ABC13 HOUSTON reporting the Eyewall is making landfall at Galveston Island now, winds 110mph gusts at 120mph- 11' of water currently.

It's not.

Well, the inner eyewall IS making "landfall", but that's a bit ambiguous since we often use "landfall" to refer to the center of the eye (i.e. Ike making landfall). Regardless, the inner eyewall is battering Galveston with ENE to NE winds (parallel to shore).

[johngaltfla]

Geraldo just said gust of 135....unreal.

I say BS

I have to agree, but when the east half of that eye wall comes around again, I would not disagree. Of course he needs to tie himself off to that palm nearby...

[tolakram]

Not a forecast

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mike Bettis (from TWC) was just reporting for MSNBC and was blown over by a giant gust of wind during the live shot!

He is in Clear Lake.

[mtm4319]

To me, it looks like Ike has corrected to a NW movement after a jog to the N or NNW that may have saved Houston and Galveston billions of dollars in damage. Again, there is a big difference between the right-front and the left-front part of Ike. Example: RECON is reporting very large swaths of 95-105 kt winds at FL to the NW of the center, while winds to the SW of the center are largely 65-75 kts at FL. Coincident with that will be a huge difference in the surge. In fact, in the left-front quad of the storm will see offshore winds that will actually act to drive the surge DOWN instead of up. Damage will likely still be very, very bad, but that may have been a wobble for the ages for those in Galveston. ENE and NE winds continue near Houston, which is not forcing the water into the bays like was forecast when it looked like Ike would hit SW of Galveston. So, surge in and around Houston may well be less than anticipated as well.

That's what I suspected with that wobble. Just like Ivan for Mobile (and for wind purposes, Katrina for New Orleans). Just a few minutes here or a few miles there... amazing how close things can come sometimes to the absolute worst-case scenario and just miss. And it doesn't look to be a major, to boot.

(Not that this won't be an all-time top 10 costliest storm, but probably not #1 now.)

[HarlequinBoy]

I think Baytown is going to take an especially bad hit. That's a bad angle to get hit at.

[CronkPSU]

bettis just got knocked over on msnbc

[fasterdisaster]

TWC shows that Ike's eye has shrunk nearly in half in the last 7 or so hours.

[lele25]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103187&p=1829208#p1829208
I don't know if I posted my topic right but I'm worried about my family on the west end of Galveston.

We'll pray for them.

Are there any live videos of that area still working???

[jimguru]

ABC13 HOUSTON reporting the Eyewall is making landfall at Galveston Island now, winds 110mph gusts at 120mph- 11' of water currently.

It's not.

Help me out here - fasterdisaster; I am not a hurricane pro or even an experienced amateur - but what about this:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[mtm4319]

ABC13 HOUSTON reporting the Eyewall is making landfall at Galveston Island now, winds 110mph gusts at 120mph- 11' of water currently.

It's not.

Help me out here - fasterdisaster; I am not a hurricane pro or even an experienced amateur - but what about this:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

That's the inner eyewall. I agree with you.

[jinftl]

radar presentation has improved...but officially still a cat 2. i almost wonder if the radar image looks tighter as storm gets close enough so we see whole eyewall with better clarity and detail....not saying that is the case here...but i know the radars only go so far out and keep resolution as good

I have a theory as to why Ike might be tightening up, and in general why Texas seems to do this to storm.
The angle a hurricane approaches Texas, usually from the southeast, means the strong winds will approach it perpendicular to the coast. This brings the strongest winds inland, and the massive girth of Texas significantly slows the outbound winds on the western side. what this effectively does is wind the storm up as the two sides of the storm become uneven in intensity, and it constricts the eye along with it. Its the angle of the coast.